State pension dates moving out again ?

chiefie

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/27/people-in-their-mid-40s-and-early-50s-could-be-forced-to-retire/

Could do without this !

lemontart

kinda knew this was gonna happen - I am 54 - although got medically retired a year ago I have no pension, so reckoning on about 80 at the rate things are changing .

SnowMan

The starting point for the review of SPA is that people won't spend more than a third of their adult life in retirement. See this thread for my own calculations.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/69703796#Comment_69703796

My own calculations suggest that the increase to age 68 is currently expected to be around 2040 which compares with the 2041 figure given in the Telegraph article.

So 2041 looks about right for the increase in SPA to age 68.

Someone aged say 52 who currently has an SPA of 67 (SPD 2031), would therefore expect to keep an SPA of 67 following the review that is due to report by next May. By the time of the second review in the next parliament, that 52 year old may be just within 10 years of SPA and so their SPA shouldn't change again.

Of course anything can be changed in the future.

westv

People who'll be 68 in 2040 will be early 40s now so not quite sure of the relevance to early 50s.

SnowMan

westv wrote: »

People who'll be 68 in 2040 will be early 40s now so not quite sure of the relevance to early 50s.

When they announced the current review they said that this would not cover the existing SPA timetable to April 2028.

So anyone born before 6th March 1961 shouldn't have their SPA changed again. But that leaves everyone born on or after 6th March 1961 who could have their SPA revised. That is everyone in their early 50s or younger.

That doesn't mean that those in their early 50s will have their SPAs changed, because the 1/3rd of adult life formula would suggest that the increase to age 68 will affect those around age 43 or younger (so from 2040 ish).

However they could ditch the 1/3rd adult life formula (before it is even used for the first time). When they announced the current review they surprisingly didn't mention the formula.

Nothing that Ros Altmann said yesterday in her evidence to the Work and Pensions Commitee on intergenerational fairness suggested that those in their early 50s would have their SPA further increased (the relevant bit is at 10:28:40).

Ros Altmann did say that the existing SPA timetable wouldn't be changed for those reaching SPA before 2030 as per the review remit. Not sure why she chose this date rather than April 2028. I think she simply got her dates wrong. I wouldn't read too much into that. But that's where the Telegraph got their 2030 date from.

So while it is unlikely that those in their early 50s will be affected by further SPA changes, the Telegraph is trying to scare people; after all their role as a newspaper isn't to provide objective information.

elmer

I work in Revenues, and on a course several years ago was told that my pension age would likely be 68.
I am currently 51 (born in 64) and my pension age at the moment is 67, but I am not expecting to receive my state pension till Im 68 and Im planning accordingly. If Im wrong and I do get to retire at 67 then I will be chuffed.

elmer

Tigsteroonie

I'm not banking on getting my pension at 67, 68 or even later. Something else is bound to change in the next twenty years, which - with the way that 'austerity measures' are heading, will eradicate a state pension completely.

Cynical, moi?

JoeCrystal

Indeed, or become purely mean-tested instead. As someone at the age of 30, I am fully expecting that my own SPA be higher than 68 thus forcing myself to save for retirement privately in some small hope to retire earlier.

dunstonh

I work in Revenues, and on a course several years ago was told that my pension age would likely be 68.

That is because the pensions act 2007 had it set to increase to 68 from 2044 to 2046. (affecting those born after 6th April 1968). However, the more recent legislation has overruled part of that allowing it to be brought forward.

badmemory

I think people are worrying about the increase in state pension age unnecessarily. We have many more minimum wage earners which = lower life expectancy. Working more years generally = lower life expectancy. SPA ties to lower life expectancy.

Outcome = life expectancy comes down - SPA does not go up. This does not include the possibilty of a medical miracle and a cure for dementia. Otherwise we will all be working to 100.

dunstonh

I was reading somewhere that some feel that life expectancy projections may have peaked and for younger people, they could start to fall with diabetes and obesity having a greater impact.