State Pension forecast keeps changing (even though based on same NI data)?

Shedman

Has anybody got any idea why my SP forecast keeps changing, even though it continues to purport to based on the NI data as at 5 April 15.

When I got a paper forecast in June 2015 for the new single tier pension (based on NI contributions to 5 April 14) it showed £139.70 a week (which made some sense as the previous forecast under the old SP scheme showed £136.35 based on April 14 data - being £113.10 basic plus £23.25 SERPS) so new one is 2.5% higher i.e. uplifted by the triple lock increase).

Getting an online forecast once the new forecast beta website was up and running showed my forecast under the new rules as being just over £135 (can't remember exact pence) despite now being based on April 15 NI data (and I had contributed way more than enough for a full qualifying year). I queried with the Newcastle team as to why there was a reduction and was assured that I would be getting at least the £139.70 shown on the paper forecast.

Looked online again a few days ago and the forecast had increased to £137.93 (which isn't even the 2.9% triple lock uplift on the £135 figure which at the very least I would have expected - seeing as the projected forecast if i continued to contribute was now showing the £155.65 up by 2.9% from the previous full 'flat' rate of £151 ish). Again both my forecasts were based on April 15 NI contributions data which obviously shouldn't have changed.

Anyway thought I have a look this morning and see whether they were using April 16 NI contributions data (bit hopeful at this stage I know, but its raining here so can't get out in the garden :-) ). They are still using April 15 data but blow me down but my forecast has dropped again - down to £135.02! How can the forecasts based on the same underlying contributions data keep moving around like this. Any of you State Pension gurus got any sanguine insight into what might be happening - its no wonder lots of people are getting confused by their forecasts and I count myself as reasonably clued up on these sort of matters.
(I would add that I was contracted out in 14/15 and for a number of previous years so was expecting a contracting out reduction from the 'flat' rate - but just not that the forecasts would keep reducing)

To add insult to injury the wifes forecasts done at the same times showed £129.84 in June 15 using April 14 data, £126 odd at first time of looking at beta site, and then the other day its showing £144.40 (both those two latter figures using the April 15 NI data). And having just checked again hers is still showing £144.40. Most odd.

greenglide

Well it is a Beta service, maybe they have tried to fix something, made it worse and regress or there is just a bug in it.

This is not an area in which they should be using beta systems as there is generally no way the customer can tell if the answer is correct as we dont have access to the data.

Very different from having an old system and a new system where both should give the same answer but the beta version uses different layouts, runs faster, links to explanatory data etc.

An excuse for sloppy development processes IMHO, presumably it used agile development methods.

Shedman

One of the problems of getting conflicting forecasts is how will we know whether, for those of us no longer working, it is worth making additional voluntary NI contributions (once we get some details of how we can do this) or in fact how many years worth to make. Really isn't good enough.

badmemory

greenglide wrote: »

Well it is a Beta service, maybe they have tried to fix something, made it worse and regress or there is just a bug in it.

This is not an area in which they should be using beta systems as there is generally no way the customer can tell if the answer is correct as we dont have access to the data.

Very different from having an old system and a new system where both should give the same answer but the beta version uses different layouts, runs faster, links to explanatory data etc.

An excuse for sloppy development processes IMHO, presumably it used agile development methods.

One of the penalties of having to accept a tender from the lowest bidder.

greenglide

One of the penalties of having to accept a tender from the lowest bidder.

That would be fine, if it was true! I assume it will be under the contract with the Aspire consortium (they won HMRC contract years ago) and none of the members of that consortium would qualify as "cheap"!

One of the problems of getting conflicting forecasts is how will we know whether, for those of us no longer working,

You do need to wait until the 2015 / 2016 contributions are available at which point it shouldnt change ever again although it will be uprated. I assume that everything up to £155.60 (under todays money) will increase by triple lock and above that amount by CPI for what will become the protected payment and then any post 2016 contributions, increments etc added.

A few months yet.

bigadaj

Accepting the cheapest tender probably isn't the main problem, poor specification and tendering will be the biggest factor no doubt.

Fiona_1066

In Jan 15 I got a state pension forecast which told me I have 32 qualifying years of NI.

Today I did a forecast under the new system, and find out I only have 31 qualifying years.

There are two tax year ends between Jan 15 and today, so I expected to see 34 qualifying years.

Anyone any idea what has happened?

p00hsticks

Fiona_1066 wrote: »

Anyone any idea what has happened?

I can't explain about one, but I wouldn't be expecting the system to know whether 2015-16 counts as a qualifying year for individuals yet.

I think on another thread someone has suggested it can take until Autumn sometime before they have all the information in to be able to know that

zagfles

The amount can go down, for instance if you have a deferred contracted out pension with a GMP (pre 97) which uses fixed rate relavuation in deferment. If eg GMP goes up 6% a year then your SERPS will reduce by the same amount before being earnings indexed at far less than 6%.

So state pension can go down if they've taken this into account but not yet added your 2015/16 NI record.

Anyone know when the "Foundation amount" for the new state pension is going to be available?

zagfles

Fiona_1066 wrote: »

In Jan 15 I got a state pension forecast which told me I have 32 qualifying years of NI.

Today I did a forecast under the new system, and find out I only have 31 qualifying years.

There are two tax year ends between Jan 15 and today, so I expected to see 34 qualifying years.

Anyone any idea what has happened?

Losing years doesn't make sense - have you looked at the record, do you know which years you lost? As per PP 2015/16 details won't be on the system yet

t0rt0ise

So look on the other tab at your NI record and see why it's now 31 years.


(Mine's gone up 1p since I last looked!)