The Next Nail in the Coffin

chucknorris

mwpt wrote: »

The government really must be stupid. What a pity they don't visit this forum for their policies.

I don't necessarily agree with your stance (totally), but that was funny.

westernpromise

padington wrote: »

I used to live in a place called Wood Green, now I'm told I live in
'Alexander park borders'.

Mrs. Promise bought a house in Kensal Rise in 1995 which 10 years later was in Queens Park!

westernpromise

chucknorris wrote: »

I've just looked at the figures more closely, when Crashy first advised me to sell up (July 2014) our property values were £300k lower than they are now, and if we had invested the equity in the stock market back then, that investment would now be £340k lower (the market is currently down about 8.5% since then). That is a total difference of £640k. I'm not taking any credit for that, because it could have went the other way (I'm not an after timer), no one knows what capital values will do. But both you and crashy seem to think that you do, and you were both wrong to the tune of £640k.

But as I have said, it isn't capital values currently keeping me in the market, because no one knows whether they will rise or fall, but what I do know, is that my rental profits currently exceed the alternative dividend income. That is why I base my decisions on income not capital value.

EDIT: What you and crashy will probably not understand is that even if the market had moved the other way, it still would have been the right decision to stay in the market, because that decision was based upon known facts, rather than speculation.

Crashy and HPC have both been pretty useful contraindicators.

cells

mwpt wrote: »

The government really must be stupid. What a pity they don't visit this forum for their policies.

Governments. Corporations. Institutes. They can all be just as stupid as anyone else. After all they are just a collection of people and if people can be stupid so can a collection of people

For instance Just think of good old George last budget. That was really stupid with a referendum 3 months out.

Also governments tend to have different priorities some of which will conflict. What might be economically stupid might be politically smart and vice versa.


Overall if there is a movement from human landlord's to corporate landlords then without a doubt the tax take from that part of the economy will be substantially lower.

mwpt

cells wrote: »

Overall if there is a movement from human landlord's to corporate landlords then without a doubt the tax take from that part of the economy will be substantially lower.

You have no idea if this is true or not, it is anecdote. I could just as well say that anecdotally, most private landlords rent out their old house on a residential mortgage and don't declare the income to HMRC.

So I could argue that corporate landlords are easier for HMRC to tax, they will have higher mortgage rates and typically chase high yields rather than capital gains resulting in lower HPI, can be regulated more easily to transform tenancy laws, and overall will be better for our housing market.

chucknorris

westernpromise wrote: »

Mrs. Promise bought a house in Kensal Rise in 1995 which 10 years later was in Queens Park!

That sounds like a much better place to live, much more desirable and posher.

westernpromise

chucknorris wrote: »

That sounds like a much better place to live, much more desirable and posher.

Yes, I have noticed how if you are selling, the house is in Queens Park and worth at least £X; but if you're buying, it's back in Kensal bl00dy Rise and not worth a penny more than (some number well below £X). Funny, that!

economic

location is everything

chucknorris

westernpromise wrote: »

Yes, I have noticed how if you are selling, the house is in Queens Park and worth at least £X; but if you're buying, it's back in Kensal bl00dy Rise and not worth a penny more than (some number well below £X). Funny, that!

The first London house that I bought (back in 1991) was (according to the estate agent) in 'Clapham Common', although it was only about a 4 min walk to the common, it was technically/actually in Balham. Although by the time I sold that house in 2003, Balham had gone up in people's estimations, and was regarded as a good area.

EDIT: Yes economics and crashy, I have actually sold properties, that one I bought for 133k and sold for £375k, another London one I bought in Tooting in 1993 for £72k, I sold for £135k in 1997, and I bought my first house in Newcastle in 1988 for £25k, and I sold that in 1991 for £52k (I completely refurbished that one).

economic

capital values and rental incomes are both risky in that they both are not guaranteed.

im in a bit of a dilema - i found a flat i like in highgate which should exchange soon however not sure if its worth waiting post tax change for prices to dip and find something better value? or should i just go for it. i do know it is hard to find decent well located properties so i guess waiting is only worth it if a big correction is coming this year which i doubt.

what woud you do?