BCR approaching 100%

Crashy_Time

Filo25 wrote: »

If that was the case then why are they pushing projects like Help to Buy?

I would say its pretty obvious to anyone they aren't trying to crash property prices, just rebalance the makeup of buyers, more FTBs, fewer BTLs (makes sense politically for them as well).

Also its wishful thinking if you imagine falling prices will lead to higher volumes, it certainly didn't in the past in London, unless you have forced sellers people will just sit it out, rates aren't going up anytime soon, and if the economy slows further we're just going to see more QE thrown around, which is hardly disastrous for housing, its the obvious policy lever the government still has left.

If you think there is a clear demand for a house price crash from core Conservative voters then you are likely to be very disappointed.

If you think the politics of the EZ/UK/USA is going to be about established parties in the future, well good luck, and if you are betting on interest rates staying this low, well good luck with that too. People who bought houses ten years ago have never seen a proper correction, you have no idea how they might react. Maybe in the 80`s and 90`s people would do anything to keep the house, but I`m not sure that still holds with the eye watering amounts of debt people are in for nowadays, many may try to walk away if serious NE hits.

mwpt

Crashy_Time wrote: »

If you think the politics of the EZ/UK/USA is going to be about established parties in the future, well good luck, and if you are betting on interest rates staying this low, well good luck with that too. People who bought houses ten years ago have never seen a proper correction, you have no idea how they might react. Maybe in the 80`s and 90`s people would do anything to keep the house, but I`m not sure that still holds with the eye watering amounts of debt people are in for nowadays, many may try to walk away if serious NE hits.

An awful lot of wing and a prayer in that post, which is the norm. I can't base my financial future on wing and a prayer, so I'm afraid, I'm out. I'm not shorting the housing market like you.

Crashy_Time

mwpt wrote: »

An awful lot of wing and a prayer in that post, which is the norm. I can't base my financial future on wing and a prayer, so I'm afraid, I'm out. I'm not shorting the housing market like you.

:rotfl: Classic denial stage post - nope, no chance the yanks will raise rates before anyone else, no chance that the Far Right/Trump/SNP/ Corbyn etc. will take vote share, no chance that people with multiple properties will panic and try to dump some, and it is absolutely certain that the debt mountain will be serviced as inflation reaches 2% (or whatever this weeks fantasy number is) Keep `Em coming :T Borrowing to meet all time bubble high prices is surely the way to a stable financial future!

wotsthat

Crashy, I'm going to buy into the next crash.

You've said the crash is happening - when should I buy in?

westernpromise

And what's the NPV of renting for ever versus buying at the top of a bubble but fixing the interest rate at 2.75% for the first 10 years?

mwpt

Crashy_Time wrote: »

:rotfl: Classic denial stage post - nope, no chance the yanks will raise rates before anyone else, no chance that the Far Right/Trump/SNP/ Corbyn etc. will take vote share, no chance that people with multiple properties will panic and try to dump some, and it is absolutely certain that the debt mountain will be serviced as inflation reaches 2% (or whatever this weeks fantasy number is) Keep `Em coming :T Borrowing to meet all time bubble high prices is surely the way to a stable financial future!

There is no denial stage. For there to be denial, we would have to have some evidence that property is crashing or imminently going to crash, for people to deny. There isn't. All there is is your endless year on year repetition of the new new facts that guarantee a crash is just coming up. Just around the corner. Any moment now.

You've bet the "house" on this crash. I did the same for nearly 10 years. I thought I might be able to time the housing market. Turns out, I couldn't. I'm not willing to take that chance for another 10 years. Win or lose, I now have a home which will see me through for many years to come. I suppose I'm just a sheeple.

Conrad

Crashy_Time wrote: »

:rotfl: Really?


Looks like they will just divert or even cancel the coming massive global recession then?

Are you aware of the number of these big ticket recession predictions we've had that came to nothing?


I could give a ton of examples. Even the DOT COM bust that was supposed to mark a global depression was localised and swift.


In 1997 various luminaries said the Asia Tiger bust would lead to an unprecedented global depression. It was done n dusted within a couple of years.


I still love the 1977 Peak oil warning that lead to Carter warning the nation to prepare in the state of the nation address.

westernpromise

I'd still like to know Crashy's BCR.

All we need to know is what he'd have bought in Aberdeen since he started waiting for the crash, and when that was. We'll do the rest.

I think it's probably well over 100% and he's a "UI", an unvested interest, talking his book.

Crashy_Time

mwpt wrote: »

There is no denial stage. For there to be denial, we would have to have some evidence that property is crashing or imminently going to crash, for people to deny. There isn't. All there is is your endless year on year repetition of the new new facts that guarantee a crash is just coming up. Just around the corner. Any moment now.

You've bet the "house" on this crash. I did the same for nearly 10 years. I thought I might be able to time the housing market. Turns out, I couldn't. I'm not willing to take that chance for another 10 years. Win or lose, I now have a home which will see me through for many years to come. I suppose I'm just a sheeple.

Right then

Pete9501

westernpromise wrote: »

I'd still like to know Crashy's BCR.

All we need to know is what he'd have bought in Aberdeen since he started waiting for the crash, and when that was. We'll do the rest.

I think it's probably well over 100% and he's a "UI", an unvested interest, talking his book.

The forum should buy Crashy a virtual house, nothing flashy for Crashy so a one bed house or flat near to him and then track over the next few years how buying today compares to how he does continuing to rent. Does someone have an opening suggestions for a suitable property.