I'm curious George. What's in your box?

Mistermeaner

Budget day.....

Predictions, critique and rantings.....


Me - I want the Tory government I voted for. Aggressive spending cuts, brave decisions and lower taxes please. Osbourne's been too soft for my liking so far.

wotsthat

I'm hopeful, given the number of budgets we've recently endured, he'll simply say he's not going to bother and leave us alone until next year.

I was interested in his comment on further spending cuts and talking about having to save 50p in every £100 spent. It's not so much the idea of spending cuts but expressing it that way seemed a little peculiar. Why not spending reductions of 0.5% or £xx?

michaels

Pre-election budget init - no one is going to be too upset...this year

lawriejones1

I want Osbourne to stop claiming to be tackling our debts and actually do something about generating growth. By all indicators he's not really successful in achieving any of his predictions.

As a small business owner, and part of a large network of business owners, it's becoming more difficult under a Tory, not easier. Osbourne is the chancellor of big business, not small business.

I'm not too worried about big tax cuts for individuals (although the new dividend rules seem a bit cruel to me) but would have appreciated some tax breaks for businesses to reinvest.

I believe the academisation of schools is a poor one.

mwpt

Well, I didn't vote Tories but so far I've been broadly neutral on their job. Some things have annoyed me (pumping demand side on housing to try kick life into economy) and other things are just ok (disincentives to hoarding property).

But what is intensely annoying is, and this applies to any government, the lack of openness or transparency. They promised no tax rises but they most definitely are raising taxes. Dividend and other hits on ltd companies, extra stamp duty, etc.

It would be quite refreshing if some party just openly said "we dug a hole for ourselves by not budgeting correctly in the boom times and now we need to take some pain to bring the deficit down during these times. We'll do this through some temporary income tax increases, made temporary by law, and cutting spending until we reach X target."

I don't expect any such statement in this budget so as usual I'll just be watching for any surprises rather than hoping for anything in particular.

Although actually, loss of tax relief on interest for corporates (incl ltd companies) would be nice addition.

michaels

[

mwpt wrote: »

Well, I didn't vote Tories but so far I've been broadly neutral on their job. Some things have annoyed me (pumping demand side on housing to try kick life into economy) and other things are just ok (disincentives to hoarding property).

But what is intensely annoying is, and this applies to any government, the lack of openness or transparency. They promised no tax rises but they most definitely are raising taxes. Dividend and other hits on ltd companies, extra stamp duty, etc.

It would be quite refreshing if some party just openly said "we dug a hole for ourselves by not budgeting correctly in the boom times and now we need to take some pain to bring the deficit down during these times. We'll do this through some temporary income tax increases, made temporary by law, and cutting spending until we reach X target."

I don't expect any such statement in this budget so as usual I'll just be watching for any surprises rather than hoping for anything in particular.

Although actually, loss of tax relief on interest for corporates (incl ltd companies) would be nice addition.

Umm - a tax on investment, can't see how that is a good idea....

lawriejones1

mwpt wrote: »

Well, I didn't vote Tories but so far I've been broadly neutral on their job. Some things have annoyed me (pumping demand side on housing to try kick life into economy) and other things are just ok (disincentives to hoarding property).

But what is intensely annoying is, and this applies to any government, the lack of openness or transparency. They promised no tax rises but they most definitely are raising taxes. Dividend and other hits on ltd companies, extra stamp duty, etc.

It would be quite refreshing if some party just openly said "we dug a hole for ourselves by not budgeting correctly in the boom times and now we need to take some pain to bring the deficit down during these times. We'll do this through some temporary income tax increases, made temporary by law, and cutting spending until we reach X target."

I don't expect any such statement in this budget so as usual I'll just be watching for any surprises rather than hoping for anything in particular.

Although actually, loss of tax relief on interest for corporates (incl ltd companies) would be nice addition.

The problem with this approach is that, despite all the claims of the politicians, to treat our economic debt like a credit card balance that can be paid off with a few years of austerity is plainly wrong. When you start turning the macroeconomic levers the results are much more complicated and much more difficult - if not impossible - to predict.

The chancellor needs to stimulate growth, entrepreneurship and innovation. It's what he says he's trying to do, but he won't (or perhaps can't).

He's very much a 'big gesture' politician with bold claims that aren't always factually accurate. His reputation is built around having a toothless and clueless opposition.

mwpt

lawriejones1 wrote: »

The problem with this approach is that, despite all the claims of the politicians, to treat our economic debt like a credit card balance that can be paid off with a few years of austerity is plainly wrong. When you start turning the macroeconomic levers the results are much more complicated and much more difficult - if not impossible - to predict.

The chancellor needs to stimulate growth, entrepreneurship and innovation. It's what he says he's trying to do, but he won't (or perhaps can't).

He's very much a 'big gesture' politician with bold claims that aren't always factually accurate. His reputation is built around having a toothless and clueless opposition.

Understood, but like you say, consequences are very difficult to predict. Stimulating growth is all very well but if you do it through more borrowing and it doesn't work or you're hit with another global recession, there could be deep trouble.

It is very easy to state ideologies and economic theory. Left wing big state spenders sit on the forums and quote papers which suit their view which say that we should be increasing spending in a downturn. But they ignore that their papers also say we should moderate and run surpluses in the good times, which we never did. They also ignore that we have a current deficit which is impossible to sustain because it is above long term GDP growth. They also ignore what the market does to bonds whose countries don't send the right messages. Borrowing is all very well until the market senses you're not good for it.

I've heard all these messages, but I disagree with the nice little meme that says state debts are very different to other types of debts. That is only partly true since most states run a printing press, but in the long run, maths is maths. There is no such thing as a free lunch. If there was, why doesn't every country in the world just print away their debt?

lawriejones1

I'm guessing this isn't the place to go into these things, because what one person states as fact is actually just opinion. What does strike me, and the OBR and pretty much anyone else that looks at these things (including financiers, bankers and large-scale investors) is that what Osbourne is doing is not working at all, and continuing to do the same thing is going to dig us deeper into the hole that we currently are stuck in.

What we need to do is to stimulate growth in the economy, which is going to come with consumer and business spending.

We'll see. I don't think history is going to be too kind to Cameron and Osbourne, but perhaps I'm wrong.

Generali

UK GDP growth is about at trend. I'm not sure what people expect the Government to do.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

Generali wrote: »

I'm not sure what people expect the Government to do.

Posture, waffle, guff, bluster, blame the previous government, big up something minor they've introduced, fail to answer the question and mention "hard working families" about six times.