Stamp duty 3% increase (2016 budget), and its effect on future house prices?

mwpt

pathtofreedom wrote: »

I don't think the stamp duty will make a big difference, but the tax changes coming in will do. I already have friends in london who have been told their rent will be going up 20% because of it.

Sorry but I this smells like bs to me. Where does the 20% figure come in? Were the landlords under-charging for years? The tax changes haven't even kicked in yet but landlords are getting their rent hikes in early (I know chuck did this).

We'll see how it works in the long run but I'm far from convinced that landlords can just pass all the costs on to tenants.

mwpt

caronoel wrote: »

It can be no surprise that this will lead to a dramatic rise in rents and tax evasion, as happened when the Irish tried to introduced a similar tax grab in the late 90s.

Debunked. Untrue.

cells

mwpt wrote: »

Sorry but I this smells like bs to me. Where does the 20% figure come in? Were the landlords under-charging for years? The tax changes haven't even kicked in yet but landlords are getting their rent hikes in early (I know chuck did this).

We'll see how it works in the long run but I'm far from convinced that landlords can just pass all the costs on to tenants.

Landlords don't set rents, tenants set rents

So landlords won't be putting up rents however tenants probably will be bidding higher rents in the future.

The stamp duty and interest changes will mean fewer rentals per renter than otherwise would be the case. This means renters are going to have to live more people per property and renters will bid more to avoid having to live with strangers or with more strangers

caronoel

mwpt wrote: »

Debunked. Untrue.

Oh but it is very true


Have a read of this thread from your old chums on HPC

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207824-ireland-a-btl-case-study/

A whole wall of academic research supports it

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mwpt wrote: »

We'll see how it works in the long run but I'm far from convinced that landlords can just pass all the costs on to tenants.

Landlords need to raise rents by an average of 4% a year for the next 5 years to fully mitigate the tax grab and restore themselves to today's position.

I suspect they'll manage to do so.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Landlords need to raise rents by an average of 4% a year for the next 5 years to fully mitigate the tax grab and restore themselves to today's position.

I suspect they'll manage to do so.

that's probably true, at least for the SE and London, where the pressure on accommodation due to immigration will comfortably support higher prices.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

that's probably true, at least for the SE and London, where the pressure on accommodation due to [STRIKE]immigration[/STRIKE] decades of under-building will comfortably support higher prices.

Fixed that for you.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Fixed that for you.

Indeed, we should have built more in the past both for housing and general infrastructure and increased taxes to pay for all this:

however, today, we are where we are, and housing costs in London and the SE will continue to rise due to the numbers of immigrants.

Not much of a problem in parts of the north but the increase in immigration has a large negative impact on the young down south

mwpt

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Landlords need to raise rents by an average of 4% a year for the next 5 years to fully mitigate the tax grab and restore themselves to today's position.

I suspect they'll manage to do so.

But rents increased while landlords biggest expense hit the floor from lowered mortgage rates. And in London, rents have been rising by roughly that % anyway (perhaps a bit lower). So there is nothing unusual here. I just don't think landlords dictate the rents, tenants do.

cells has got a point re density but also missing in all this is that higher rents deters some people from actually living here. I think it's just too complicated a system to say anything with certainty. Some highly leveraged landlords have a vested interest in trying to be certain though.

mwpt

caronoel wrote: »

Oh but it is very true


Have a read of this thread from your old chums on HPC

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207824-ireland-a-btl-case-study/

A whole wall of academic research supports it