What's the future of London with the ridiculous house prices?

ukcarper

lisyloo wrote: »

Is that 45 mins door to door, or just the train part?
can you say where the 4 bed is? and how long it is between leaving home and getting on the train at your end I.e. Travel time & wait time.

I leave 25 mins before the train and then have 31 mins the other end (fastest time on tfl).
I might be interested in buying :-) but just trying to work out whether it's 45 door-to-door or more like 25+45+31 (and that's on days everything is running smoothly).

No that's the train time about 10 min walk to station, but plenty of people do the commute and have done for years. I lived here and commuted to London for 30 years only by car not train.

brit1234

LiveOnce wrote: »

I saw a 1 bedroom flat in Earl's Court recently go for £450,000.

This wasn't an apartment, it was a maisonette.

It's absolutely crazy what's going on in London.

The future is huge falls in prices in Earls Court. Article in Evening Standard tonight "Earls Court sales dry up as market gets jitters" It says the second stage of the Lillie Square development isn't selling. The main development on the Earls Court exhibition center isn't even building yet they are still demolishing.

Yes the prices are crazy high right now in the area but there is a huge oversupply in the pipeline. They haven't even got started on the West Ken Estate redevelopment. Nine Elms close by is getting all the news about buyers pulling out and not selling but focus is turning to Earls Court.

cells

London GDP is now about £0.5 trillion a year and its Housing stock worth £1.75 trillion

The famous 3.5x income......

cells

The rest of the country is also about 3.5 x GDP = Housing stock so London at 3.5 x GDP = Housing stock seems quite normal?

The surprising or odd factor in London is that with about 13% of the population and 13% of the housing stock it generates 30% of the GDP. There is just a lot more value added in London than rUK.

One major reason is that London has more workers led capita (more people age 18-65) and less old folk. So more workers means more wages led house mean tenants can bid higher rents and owners can bid higher to buy

Generali

cells wrote: »

The rest of the country is also about 3.5 x GDP = Housing stock so London at 3.5 x GDP = Housing stock seems quite normal?

The surprising or odd factor in London is that with about 13% of the population and 13% of the housing stock it generates 30% of the GDP. There is just a lot more value added in London than rUK.

One major reason is that London has more workers led capita (more people age 18-65) and less old folk. So more workers means more wages led house mean tenants can bid higher rents and owners can bid higher to buy

I think the house prices vs GDP calculation only makes sense on a longer-term view. As a snapshot it's pretty meaningless.

Having said that in the very long term house prices tend to rise in line with GDP in the UK.

chucknorris

brit1234 wrote: »

The future is huge falls in prices in Earls Court. Article in Evening Standard tonight "Earls Court sales dry up as market gets jitters" It says the second stage of the Lillie Square development isn't selling. The main development on the Earls Court exhibition center isn't even building yet they are still demolishing.

Yes the prices are crazy high right now in the area but there is a huge oversupply in the pipeline. They haven't even got started on the West Ken Estate redevelopment. Nine Elms close by is getting all the news about buyers pulling out and not selling but focus is turning to Earls Court.

Will these 'huge falls' see prices fall below the price levels of 2009/10? When you were also predicting huge falls, but the market has actually had 'huge rises' since then. Will these 'huge falls' also cover the cost of renting for the additional 6 or 7 years too?

Like a stopped clock, one day you will correctly predict a fall in house prices, the problem you have is that by then then, the corrected price will still be far higher than when you were first predicting a crash, not to mention all the years of rent spent by then too.

mwpt

Generali wrote: »

I think the house prices vs GDP calculation only makes sense on a longer-term view. As a snapshot it's pretty meaningless.

Having said that in the very long term house prices tend to rise in line with GDP in the UK.

Of note is that the GDP function contains a term of imputed rent, related to house prices.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

London GDP is now about £0.5 trillion a year and its Housing stock worth £1.75 trillion

The famous 3.5x income......

which illustrates the effect of multiple occupancy on price per property and the unaffordablity of a modest family sized house in many parts of london for a 'normal' couple.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

Conrad wrote: »

How one lives without a theatre at the end of the road in anyone's guess.

I've heard that people outside London spend their evenings watching DVD boxsets as there's nothing else to do. I visited someone in the provinces once and we had to eat at a Nandos.

brit1234

chucknorris wrote: »

Will these 'huge falls' see prices fall below the price levels of 2009/10?

I am hoping so, maybe then with a good wage and big deposit I can buy. However Help to buy London and increased mortgage length terms (35-40 years) is a big threat.