Dominic Frisby calling 2016 UK HPI 5 %

Thrugelmir

Who is Dominic Frisby?

I prefer Capital Economics for my serious reading.

caronoel

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Who is Dominic Frisby?

I prefer Capital Economics for my serious reading.

Ah yes. Capital Economics.... the so called experts who screamed housing was overvalued for the 10 years and then reversed their view less than a year before the market collapsed....

"It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6549299.stm

PasturesNew

According to zoopla mine's dropped 5% in the last two months!

Blacklight

April 2007

Capital Economics is predicting slow price growth over the next few years but with the caution that any significant rise in interest rates could lead to a crash.

So the stopped clock was actually ticking at this point. How wrong can you possibly be. If there was a prize for being the most opposite of correct you can get, these guys would win.

Thrugelmir

Blacklight wrote: »

April 2007

So the stopped clock was actually ticking at this point. How wrong can you possibly be. If there was a prize for being the most opposite of correct you can get, these guys would win.

Guess that's why there still in business and highly regarded.

caronoel

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Guess that's why there still in business and highly regarded.

Highly regarded

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

padington

Check this arguement out ...

Gold can be measured in relation to property
I have no idea whether gold will go up or down
I am bearish on gold right now and bullish on UK property (apart from South East)
However I want gold to go up
If gold doesn't go up in relation to property and sterling there will be a revolution

Then in the comments section ...

I appreciate gold has no utility and therefore no yield unlike property
Some say this is why gold is so special.

http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-the-charts-you-love-to-hate-uk-house-prices-in-gold/#disqus_thread

Graham_Devon

Blacklight wrote: »

April 2007



So the stopped clock was actually ticking at this point. How wrong can you possibly be. If there was a prize for being the most opposite of correct you can get, these guys would win.

Err - if you look back to 2007 weren't they the "most correct" out of most forecasters?

While they didn't predict the actual reason for the crash, the crash happened. As did slow price growth for the next 4 years or so.

caronoel

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Err - if you look back to 2007 weren't they the "most correct" out of most forecasters?

In a word: No

From the BBC in April 2007:

Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis.

"It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6549299.stm

caronoel

padington wrote: »

Yeah I noticed that, he means 5%, I'm fairly sure but has tried to give himself an opt out. What a dweeb.

There is a link at the bottom of the article where he outlines his forecast accuracy for 2015.

Seems he did indeed predict that house prices for all (other than an undefined "prime" London market) would rise.

Strangely, I dont recall Moneyweek ever predicting that house prices would rise regardless of the evidence before them.

Revisionism in action.