how much will London house price crash by?

catoutthebag

In the next 5 years :think:

Rich2808

Prepare for a roller coaster thread here.

London house prices can and will never fall?!!! Until of course they do.

catoutthebag

Just don't tell Londoners / hobby investors :shhh:

Generali

Excellent use of the loaded question for which I applaud you OP. :T

I love a good, old fashioned logical fallacy me.

chucknorris

Rich2808 wrote: »

Prepare for a roller coaster thread here.

London house prices can and will never fall?!!! Until of course they do.

Why do people have such short memories (or if younger, inability to research historical prices)? What about the early 70's, late 80's and 2008? When (sensible) people say property rises, they mean over the long term, despite periodical corrections. If you buy at a peak time and sell in a trough, it might be a different story. They usually mean nominally too, I do have doubt about real term gains from this point in time, but I have been wrong about that before.

tkane

I'm remortgaging my properties this year on longer fixes, if prices go down I won't be affected as I know they will recover within 12-18 months. 24 months at most.

I will just use the price correction to buy more properties.

I believe the price falls will kick in Q2/Q3 2017, there is way too much demand still this year and very little pressure on prices.

But I do believe a correction of some sort is on the horizon, fuelled 100% by external factors.

CLAPTON

tkane wrote: »

I'm remortgaging my properties this year on longer fixes, if prices go down I won't be affected as I know they will recover within 12-18 months. 24 months at most.

I will just use the price correction to buy more properties.

I believe the price falls will kick in Q2/Q3 2017, there is way too much demand still this year and very little pressure on prices.

But I do believe a correction of some sort is on the horizon, fuelled 100% by external factors.

how is there 'too much demand ' but 'little pressure on prices'

HappyMJ

catoutthebag wrote: »

In the next 5 years :think:

As opposed to what?

There has to be a financial crash for houses prices to dramatically fall. Over a 5 year period the value of a typical well maintained London property will not (in my opinion) go down. Over a 1 year period maybe but not over 5 years.

Properties that are not maintained may go down in value. Solution - maintain the property.

Properties that are leasehold may go down in value as the lease becomes shorter. Solution - extend the lease.

As banks now mostly no longer lend irresponsibly to people who claim they earn more than they do then it's very unlikely that a large number of borrowers will be unable to pay their mortgages and there will be less repossessed property on the market to lower the average selling price.

System

I wouldn't even predict the next 6 months.

tkane

CLAPTON wrote: »

how is there 'too much demand ' but 'little pressure on prices'

Little pressure on prices to go down.

westernpromise

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I wouldn't even predict the next 6 months.

where will London prices go over the next 30 years? That's my horizon. Speculating based on my estimate of where peaks and troughs are, not so much.

People who've stayed out in speculative hopes of price falls have had their just deserts these last 20 years. If you want it, suck it up and buy it. If you don't want it enough to do that you have no grievance with those who do. I reckon.