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London increased by 12.4% in 2015
Comments
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chucknorris wrote: »But also hoover up the lower prices with new investment money. Although I'm pretty much 'all in' now (talking about shares, I was finished with property years ago).
It was a hypothetical - I'm actually 'willing' to see much lower prices.
Unfortunately, I can't take a step up moral mountain because I want lower prices for my own self-interest rather than for 'the children'.0 -
I have some friends coming for the weekend. We look up west end show prices and it's £100 for tickets at the weekend. I "object" to that price. My choices are either go and pay and suck it up or never go to west end show (assume we can only go on a weekend). I believe that I'm still allowed to believe the price is too high but also go.
No, you're not. If you honestly believed that, you wouldn't pay. A theatre's not a monopoly supplier of entertainment. If enough people agreed with you not enough people would pay either, and one of two things would happen. Either prices would fall or theatres would close because they couldn't sell tickets at prices that made it worthwhile being in the theatre business.
If you don't think a theatre ticket is worth £100, don't pay. Otherwise you're saying that tickets should be cheaper while doing nothing to bring that about. You still get to go, because you can afford £100, but the unlucky proles, for whom you feel very deeply, don't, because they can't.
So you feel really good about yourself and meanwhile nothing changes because you are helping things to stay the same.
Ask yourself what you can do to make housing cheaper, if you think it's too expensive. You could campaign for more housebuilding, and agree to have it happen in your back yard. You could take in a lodger to reduce demand for rentals. You could downsize your own home, rather than keeping it off the market, You could sell your own for what you paid for it - start a movement here. You could demolish the extension so it sells for cheaper when you do sell. You could overpay stamp duty and send the extra to the government towards its housing programmes. I keep hearing how £100k stamp duty is nothing when you're buying a £1.5 million home; very well, if you're in that position, pay £200k. It's only another £100k, which as we know is trivial.
Edmund Burke said that you never make a greater mistake than to do nothing because you can only do a little. So live by that. Either do that little yourself, or fall silent, because frankly anyone who calls for taxes on or action by other people, while doing nothing, is demanding that others be coerced into doing what they themselves will not.0 -
12.4% .... the Bears got it so wrong again.
... And the new help to buy 40% credit deal hasn't even started kicking in yet.
... And Australian real estate looks like it's off the boil leaving more Chinese money to come our way.
Should be another year of double digits for 2016.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
12.4% .... the Bears got it so wrong again.
... And the new help to buy 40% credit deal hasn't even started kicking in yet.
... And Australian real estate looks like it's off the boil leaving more Chinese money to come our way.
Way to cause and effect there Mr. Bear.Should be another year of double digits for 2016.
It may be or it may not be. When credit costs go up and/or demand/supply imbalance changes we'll see prices soften or go down. When or if that happens isn't know, so your bet is safe until it isn't.
I was driving around yesterday (not for fun) and noticed just how much empty space there is in parts of London (south). I have a feeling if there was ever the political will and appropriate infrastructure put in place we could address the imbalance pretty easily. But we'll continue to rely on a broken private supply side. I guess 'they' consider that better than overbuilding and crashing the market.0 -
TheWay to cause and effect there Mr. Bear.
It may be or it may not be. When credit costs go up and/or demand/supply imbalance changes we'll see prices soften or go down. When or if that happens isn't know, so your bet is safe until it isn't.
I was driving around yesterday (not for fun) and noticed just how much empty space there is in parts of London (south). I have a feeling if there was ever the political will and appropriate infrastructure put in place we could address the imbalance pretty easily. But we'll continue to rely on a broken private supply side. I guess 'they' consider that better than overbuilding and crashing the market.
Problem is you ( according to yourself ) spent years calling a crash that didn't happen. So you don't really have a great track record so far on this one.
When the facts change you need to change your thinking, interest rates however in the UK are not going anywhere fast. Tax take on BTL landlords is balanced by new help to buy for First time buyers. Immigration is roaring. More houses built attract more people like new roads attract more cars. The facts haven't changed. However still your inclination is to expect free honey. There is none.
The government can create a house price crash by throttling credit next week. It doesn't want a crash. It wants people to be swimming in equity and borrowing money and buying things. The economy is only surviving because of this dynamic to be honest. Expecting the government to create a housing crash is like expecting the government to shoot itself in the head.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
The
Problem is you ( according to yourself ) spent years calling a crash that didn't happen. So you don't really have a great track record so far on this one.
Oh right, this old place again, it seems familiar. We've ended up at the "you were wrong your opinion doesn't count" point. I'm unable to argue with idiocy so I'll let you have it.0 -
12.4% .... the Bears got it so wrong again.
... And the new help to buy 40% credit deal hasn't even started kicking in yet.
... And Australian real estate looks like it's off the boil leaving more Chinese money to come our way.
Should be another year of double digits for 2016.
(Reposting this here as thread is more relevant)
Was reading an article about 'Singapore-on-Thames' in yesterday's Sunday Times. Prices down, demand very seriously down. In a large swathe of London newbuild developments the effect is physically, palpably obvious. Osborne's Mansion Tax and Asian financial bad news perfect storm blamed. The author made a good case that the market for flats over £700k in London is a now a dead duck. Good analysis too of what, in central London new build, is/isn't still worth buying.0 -
Oh right, this old place again, it seems familiar. We've ended up at the "you were wrong your opinion doesn't count" point. I'm unable to argue with idiocy so I'll let you have it.
You're still wrong. I've told you why. Feel free to argue my reasons if you want to and we can assess at the end of the year how wrong you were or not ( again ).Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
You're still wrong. I've told you why. Feel free to argue my reasons if you want to and we can assess at the end of the year how wrong you were or not ( again ).
Wrong about what? You're shadowboxing and thinking you've scored a knock-out. I simply said you would be right until you were wrong. Thinking you have smarts because you've been right so far is a natural, but stupid, human bias.0 -
J(Reposting this here as thread is more relevant)
Was reading an article about 'Singapore-on-Thames' in yesterday's Sunday Times. Prices down, demand very seriously down. In a large swathe of London newbuild developments the effect is physically, palpably obvious. Osborne's Mansion Tax and Asian financial bad news perfect storm blamed. The author made a good case that the market for flats over £700k in London is a now a dead duck. Good analysis too of what, in central London new build, is/isn't still worth buying.
Yes prime property could be dead in the water because the tax take was never rebalanced by new credit ( help To buy can't buy you a £700'000 penthouse ). Relatively cheap period properties with gardens that Londoners want around the £500k mark or less however will still be hugely sought after, even more so maybe.
I'm talking about real family homes, not deposit boxes in the sky. However HPI is important to the government hence why they threw new cheap builds a life line with HElp to buy 2 and that will ensure cheap flats remain strong in price.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0
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