London prices are not too hot not too cold

westernpromise

economic wrote: »

but perception of life is all relative. how many times have you felt life is unfair for your first world problems?

point is property ma indeed look expensive to you but it is still affordable to enough people to create demand. the thing is this demand came out of no where since 2012 in London. so there is the risk hat this demand could go away at some point and then you may have your price correction in nominal terms. but of course no one really knows when that will happen.

also when I hear people saying prices fall but then only rebound back quickly after are only looking at recent history. anything can happen - you could see a very long term continual decline in prices.

You're right to say that nobody knows what will happen. The price graphs wobbles about and periodically retraces a bit before recovering.

What is clear though is that there has been roughly a 65-year bull run in property, very notably in the south-east. In 1950 you could buy a white stucco house in Maida Vale for £2,000 and everyone would think you mad for paying top money for such a liability. By 1960 it was worth £10,000 and by 1970 probably £25,000. By 1990 it was worth a million and today it's worth £5 million. At *every* step in that climb, property bears have looked backwards at where price used to be, and insisted that property prices had gone mad.

This is why I'm always a bit sceptical of claims that the market's overvalued and needs to come down. The £5 million Maida Vale house may look overpriced but there were people saying the same thing when it was a million, when it was £100k, etc all the way back to 1950. The other thing I find a bit odd is the expressions of incredulity that a 2-bed flat costs half a million or a semi costs a million. The fact is that those prices were trading in Notting Hill 20 years ago so I'm not sure why they're outrageous elsewhere now.

mwpt

economic wrote: »

but perception of life is all relative. how many times have you felt life is unfair for your first world problems?

I'm sure I do that, as does everyone but I try to remind myself of how lucky I actually am. I come from pretty modest beginnings. I was lucky enough to be born to caring but strict parents. What they lacked in resources they made up in other ways and made sure I was educated well. But I don't take it for granted, I could have ended up in a home with a spouse abusing father and an uncaring mother, or worse, no parents at all, killed by genocide.

The cosmos rolled the dice and I ended up where I ended up, by luck, not by some design of unfairness.

point is property ma indeed look expensive to you but it is still affordable to enough people to create demand. the thing is this demand came out of no where since 2012 in London. so there is the risk hat this demand could go away at some point and then you may have your price correction in nominal terms. but of course no one really knows when that will happen.

also when I hear people saying prices fall but then only rebound back quickly after are only looking at recent history. anything can happen - you could see a very long term continual decline in prices.

Agree with this. Demand is there, stimulated by many events : migration, government policies, money seeking safe havens, cheap credit, etc. All of this could change at any point. I've taken my chance now but I've got a home and will service the mortgage regardless, so content to just let the long game play out. If prices drop, I've got equity saved, will work hard and hopefully trade upwards. I rolled the dice in the opposite direction for too long, unfortunately for me.

economic

yes life is just a game of rolling the dice. that's the way I see it.

thequant

yertiz wrote: »

You are assuming that all newly qualified teachers are 21/22, many teachers I know havn't started teaching until well into their 20's and 30's, after working in other occupations. Even teachers who have qualified for a number of years are not exactly in a position to buy in London.

Qualified teachers' pay scales:
https://www.tes.com/article.aspx?storycode=6000186

Have you seen the quality of the people going into the teaching profession ? The vast majority are unable find proper graduate jobs, so turn to teaching as they feel entitled to a "middle class" profession.

As for pay, contrary to the myth that teachers sacrifice themselves for low pay due to their love of their profession. The truth is for many this is only way they could achieve such high wages.

Teaching becomes a very attractive proposition after doing a workfare placement in poundland.

economic

well as the saying goes, those who cant do, teach.

mwpt

thequant wrote: »

Have you seen the quality of the people going into the teaching profession ? The vast majority are unable find proper graduate jobs, so turn to teaching as they feel entitled to a "middle class" profession.

As for pay, contrary to the myth that teachers sacrifice themselves for low pay due to their love of their profession. The truth is for many this is only way they could achieve such high wages.

Teaching becomes a very attractive proposition after doing a workfare placement in poundland.

I realise there may be some who enter teaching who fit your description, but perhaps be careful not to generalise too much. My partner is a teacher who graduated from a top 5 UK university, worked in industry for several years but never felt fulfilled. She changed into teaching for fulfilment reasons rather than lack of anything else to do. Unless you know a teacher closely, you won't know that it is a hard, stressful and draining job. I never realised this before.

thequant

mwpt wrote: »

I realise there may be some who enter teaching who fit your description, but perhaps be careful not to generalise too much. My partner is a teacher who graduated from a top 5 UK university, worked in industry for several years but never felt fulfilled. She changed into teaching for fulfilment reasons rather than lack of anything else to do. Unless you know a teacher closely, you won't know that it is a hard, stressful and draining job. I never realised this before.

I did a stint of supply teaching many years ago, most of the younger teachers fitted my description quite well. In some of the schools I worked in I was shocked by what I seen, such as teachers chatting to students who were smoking joints during school time, other teachers discussing the pupils sexually.

I was so horrified I quit after a few weeks, reported what I had seen to my MP, LEA etc. Nothing was done, but was no shock when one particular school hit the headlines a few years later for the very things I had seen.