Red Day on the Markets

mwpt

N1AK wrote: »

Perhaps you should start a thread and post in there what you're doing when you do it it's notable that every time someone posts on here about buying in or selling out it's always about having done it in the past and it was always at the right time.

Pity you didn't hold on until you May when you could have sold when the FTSE was over 7k

Oh no. I'm probably the only person around who can't time the market.

I listened to my inner voice late last year and started divesting into cash. All good. However, after the rout of the first few days of this year, I couldn't resist and bought a big chunk back in. I'm down 6.5% on that chunk so far.

I also didn't buy property in London from when I first had the means and looked in 2004. I bought just after the big 2013 early 2014 increase.

So, next time I invest anywhere I'll let you guys know and you can do the opposite.

luvpump

The 2007-8 crash, only a few predicted it,& they were labeled cranks, how many analysts would have said oil would have been down 75% in just over a year ?? None ..So I take this "hold tight" suggestion with a huge pinch of salt . With interest rates at almost zero, there is no ammo left, only printing money, in truth no one really knows what will happen . Except a few learned mse'ers ofcourse !

chucknorris

N1AK wrote: »

Perhaps you should start a thread and post in there what you're doing when you do it it's notable that every time someone posts on here about buying in or selling out it's always about having done it in the past and it was always at the right time.

Pity you didn't hold on until you May when you could have sold when the FTSE was over 7k

I did sell some at more or less the very top near 7,100, but I bought back in again at about 6,700, and then invested much more at about 6,200 (approx average of various prices). So it didn't really work out that well, but you can't expect to get everything right.

Thrugelmir

luvpump wrote: »

The 2007-8 crash, only a few predicted it,& they were labeled cranks, how many analysts would have said oil would have been down 75% in just over a year ?? None ..So I take this "hold tight" suggestion with a huge pinch of salt . With interest rates at almost zero, there is no ammo left, only printing money, in truth no one really knows what will happen . Except a few learned mse'ers ofcourse !

In 2007-08 events weren't impacting company profitability. The hit was in the main in the finance sector. For the past 12 months in the FTSE there's been a swathe of companies reporting lower profits and cutting/cancelling dividends. QE and share buy backs papered over the cracks. Company shares are simply being rerated to their true values based on revised prospects. Now that the financial sector is back on it's feet. Central banks are simply allowing markets to correct naturally. Going to be a roller coaster of a ride. Been a long time since we've had this level of volatility. Something which many have never experienced before.

mystic_trev

N1AK wrote: »

Perhaps you should start a thread and post in there what you're doing when you do it it's notable that every time someone posts on here about buying in or selling out it's always about having done it in the past and it was always at the right time.

I did actually post my decision at the time.

mystic_trev wrote: »

I'm feeling very uneasy about the current Market. Having said I'll stick with it, today I've sold two thirds into cash. I'll review the situation in three months time.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=67642207&postcount=14

chucknorris

mystic_trev wrote: »

I did actually post my decision at the time.



http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=67642207&postcount=14

I seem to remember me, you and renoman talking about it ages ago, unfortunately I was the one for staying in out of the 3 of us. I have no reason to doubt your sincerity anyway.

N1AK

mystic_trev wrote: »

I did actually post my decision at the time.

Thanks for taking the time to respond. I did think at the time that I should pull my finger out and check if you had, but laziness and the lack of desire to check through a year+ of posts put me off.

I think it's safe to say at this point that the 4th Feb 2015 was a good time to sell (as you could buy back in for 20% less). Whether it was sound decision making or luck is a harder question to answer

N1AK

mwpt wrote: »

I listened to my inner voice late last year and started divesting into cash. All good. However, after the rout of the first few days of this year, I couldn't resist and bought a big chunk back in. I'm down 6.5% on that chunk so far.

I also didn't buy property in London from when I first had the means and looked in 2004. I bought just after the big 2013 early 2014 increase.

Selling late last year and reinvesting after some of the recent falls will have got you more shares than having held on, hardly a bad decision with hindsight :beer: even if, in theory, an even better time to sell exists.

I'll be sticking with slow and steady, just put this weeks payment into the S&S ISA to invariably watch it lose value just have to keep reminding myself that if it does at least next weeks payment will buy more...

mwpt

N1AK wrote: »

Selling late last year and reinvesting after some of the recent falls will have got you more shares than having held on, hardly a bad decision with hindsight :beer: even if, in theory, an even better time to sell exists.

Heh, yes. I'm not panicking. That buy is locked in for the longish term unless I re-evaluate my goals. I am tempted to buy more but that is risky because at the moment my cash is where I want it to be, for my emergency funds.

I'll be sticking with slow and steady, just put this weeks payment into the S&S ISA to invariably watch it lose value just have to keep reminding myself that if it does at least next weeks payment will buy more...

You buy weekly? Don't the charges eat up your gains? I have considered moving to a mechanical investing strategy as opposed to what I've previously done, which is to (mostly) avoid trackers and funds and try to pick good companies with solid models and dividends, and buy in when I think they are value for money. In other words, the opposite of what most people advise. It's worked for me for years. I've had a lot of losses but a lot of gains too. It's scary but overall my return was toward 10% pa.

But my most recent purchase was a dividend paying tracker because volatility is scary for picking individual names.

N1AK

mwpt wrote: »

You buy weekly? Don't the charges eat up your gains? I have considered moving to a mechanical investing strategy as opposed to what I've previously done, which is to (mostly) avoid trackers and funds and try to pick good companies with solid models and dividends, and buy in when I think they are value for money. In other words, the opposite of what most people advise. It's worked for me for years. I've had a lot of losses but a lot of gains too. It's scary but overall my return was toward 10% pa.

All in tracker funds so no transaction charges, I wouldn't typically buy weekly but I left starting on this years ISA allowance way too late to spread as much as I should. Tempted to set up fully automated payments for next year, but not sure if that'll make keeping my balance between markets right.