Inflation, Inflation, Inflation...

vivatifosi

anchovypizza wrote: »

Because I find it entertaining

Too see the same dozen people come to a board on a daily basis to moan predominantly about a website they are banned from where 1000's post at a level way advanced and with 100 fold more support.

The press, in fact all the media where they allow freedom of speech in the form of a blog or comments section are inundated with anti BTL and housing crisis stories which are supported by far with views alien to this board. Apart from 118 and a few other sad little landlords forums you guys are in a tiny minority

This thread is about oil prices and inflation, not about BTL or other fora, so please stay on topic.

Gen, and others actually interested in oil prices... I was looking up the major oil producers the other day and was surprised how much of the market had moved out of the hands of OPEC, which may explain why they are not reducing capacity.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

chucknorris

vivatifosi wrote: »

This thread is about oil prices and inflation, not about BTL or other fora, so please stay on topic.

Gen, and others actually interested in oil prices... I was looking up the major oil producers the other day and was surprised how much of the market had moved out of the hands of OPEC, which may explain why they are not reducing capacity.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

That's an interesting list, but I note that it is (obviously) based on actual production, it did make me wonder though, how many countries have reserves of shale that they have not yet started to extract. Or maybe that wouldn't be too significant.

Generali

chucknorris wrote: »

That's an interesting list, but I note that it is (obviously) based on actual production, it did make me wonder though, how many countries have reserves of shale that they have not yet started to extract. Or maybe that wouldn't be too significant.

Canada has a couple of hundred billion boe in tar sands which gives it one of the largest holders (possibly the largest as improvements in technology increase recovery rates from harder to access oil) of proven reserves in the world despite it not being one of the top five producers in the world.

Ultimately, IMHO, most of the oil isn't going to be dug out of the ground. OPEC disagrees officially but the fact that they are pumping oil as fast as they can tells a different tale to me.

thequant

chucknorris wrote: »

That's an interesting list, but I note that it is (obviously) based on actual production, it did make me wonder though, how many countries have reserves of shale that they have not yet started to extract. Or maybe that wouldn't be too significant.

Also production is not the key indicator, but net exports. US has always been one of the worlds largest producers but has been held to ransom by opec in the past due to being a net importer.

What I find interesting is how opec is cutting their own noses and giving everyone else cheap oil. Yes they are trying to preserve market share, but you cant defeat the market.

In the meantime we continue to wean ourselves off hydrocarbons renewables and are making good progress to Nuclear fusion which will be the day the middle east reverts back to the stone age.

cells

anchovypizza wrote: »

Because I find it entertaining

Too see the same dozen people come to a board on a daily basis to moan predominantly about a website they are banned from where 1000's post at a level way advanced and with 100 fold more support.

The press, in fact all the media where they allow freedom of speech in the form of a blog or comments section are inundated with anti BTL and housing crisis stories which are supported by far with views alien to this board. Apart from 118 and a few other sad little landlords forums you guys are in a tiny minority

There are over 3 million landlord households and 5 million private rental household's both are very very big groups however the crash wishers are tiny and so are the landlords who debate the issue on internet forum's.

The crash wishers do themselves no favours by insulting others and also by frequenting a confirmation bias website. At least here there is quite a range of view from people who think prices are too high and people who think prices are too low.

Why don't you take some of my posts back to your nation at hpc and see what they make of it. For instance prices in some towns are cheaper vs wages than they were 20 years ago. Prices in some regions are close to build costs aka pretty much free

ukcarper

cells wrote: »

There are over 3 million landlord households and 5 million private rental household's both are very very big groups however the crash wishers are tiny and so are the landlords who debate the issue on internet forum's.

The crash wishers do themselves no favours by insulting others and also by frequenting a confirmation bias website. At least here there is quite a range of view from people who think prices are too high and people who think prices are too low.

Why don't you take some of my posts back to your nation at hpc and see what they make of it. For instance prices in some towns are cheaper vs wages than they were 20 years ago. Prices in some regions are close to build costs aka pretty much free

I don't know exactly how many of the regular posters on here are landlords but I would guess it's less than half.

Jon_B_2

michaels wrote: »

Best argument I can see for higher rates is to give scope for monetary loosening when the next cyclical downturn arrives

As a home-owner I am probably cutting off my nose to spite my face, however I really do feel in the UK interest rates need to start rising soon for exactly this reason.

There are also far too many people going into home-ownership with (and it is definitely only my own opinion) no idea of what interest rates mean and what implication it has for their mortgage payments.

I was a FTB buying a house on only a 2.84% fixed rate, but I have priced in my purchase at rates of 8-10%, but I'm not sure the majority homeowners have done this! MMR only models up to 7% I believe.

michaels

thequant wrote: »

In the meantime we continue to wean ourselves off hydrocarbons renewables and are making good progress to Nuclear fusion which will be the day the middle east reverts back to the stone age.

Except that we are much less likely to invest in doing so with oil at 30 than at 130....another good reason for opec's current policy?

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

The Middle East might be a bit screwed but some of those lunatics having a bit less power could well be a good thing.

The Middle East is already feeling the impact. Worth remembering that they are importers of many products and services. With less petro dollars to spend the effects will be felt far and wide. Not least the expats who currently work in the region.

Thrugelmir

chucknorris wrote: »

I am investing for retirement dividend income, rather than capital gain.

Dividend cover is looking very thin for some companies. Worth monitoring the companies shares you hold. There was a raft of bad news in 2015 on the dividend front. In 2016 may well be more to follow.