Everything in place for a US rate rise

Thrugelmir

chucknorris wrote: »

I bet you remember the day that we left the ERM on 16/9/92, I certainly do. For anyone that doesn't know or remember:

Not thinking of Black Monday in 1987 are you?

Thrugelmir

chucknorris wrote: »

I totally agree, but if they don't already know that, they shouldn't really be buying, although I'm not trying to deny that a significant percentage of the population are just not with it, when it comes to managing their finances.

Unsecured personal debt is still growing at £1.2 billion a month. Stepchange are helping around 500,000 people a year now. There are concerns that today's borrowing will impact in around 2 to 3 years time.

chucknorris

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Not thinking of Black Monday in 1987 are you?

No, I was a (mature) student back then, and I was still a year away from buying my first house, and more than a decade away from buying my first share. I was talking about the night when the base rate was going to rocket if we didn't leave the ERM (but we did leave), I'm surprised you didn't remember that, as it was looking very bleak for mortgagees.

DiggerUK

Most are saying that the Federal Reserve Bank in America has to raise rates, because they have been low for so long......there's clever for you.
Are the self same posters now expecting a change in Japanese monetary or fiscal policy?
So long as there are toxic debts in the US financial and monetary system, the bailing buckets will be the only tool to hand.

Unlike europe, the Fed can't introduce negative rates. That leaves them with monetary expansion, and no wish for a stronger dollar which raised rates would bring. Doing nothing for now is the strongest contender ..._

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Unsecured personal debt is still growing at £1.2 billion a month. Stepchange are helping around 500,000 people a year now. There are concerns that today's borrowing will impact in around 2 to 3 years time.

I suppose one of these days a ticking time bomb will go off.

Which one and when is guesswork.

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

I suppose one of these days a ticking time bomb will go off.

Which one and when is guesswork.

Seems to be slow progressive steps towards changing culture. The MMR and Pay Day loans spring to mind. Next biggie must be credit cards. 0% balance transfers etc.

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems to be slow progressive steps towards changing culture. The MMR and Pay Day loans spring to mind. Next biggie must be credit cards. 0% balance transfers etc.

Which is completely at odds with your comments about Stepchange. i.e. The ticking time bomb of personal debt going off in 2 or 3 years.

Thrugelmir

chucknorris wrote: »

No, I was a (mature) student back then, and I was still a year away from buying my first house, and more than a decade away from buying my first share. I was talking about the night when the base rate was going to rocket if we didn't leave the ERM (but we did leave), I'm surprised you didn't remember that, as it was looking very bleak for mortgagees.

Probably didn't impact me at the time (in my pocket). After my earlier experiences. Use to stick to 5 year fixed mortgages. Around that time seem to recall paying around 10 - 11%. The fall out from leaving the ERM actually resulted in share prices rising. Positive for my pension planning. As the £ tracking a very strong German DM was having a negative effect on the UK's commerce.

Generali

FWIW, the BIS (often called the Central Bankers' central bank) has said that the Fed shouldn't let market reactions dent their desire to increase rates.

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Which is completely at odds with your comments about Stepchange. i.e. The ticking time bomb of personal debt going off in 2 or 3 years.

Only a ticking bomb to those in financial difficulty. Defaulting isn't the end of the world as we know it. As is numerous singular events not a seismic crash. So the pain will be widely spread.

Likewise lever pulling has be going on quietly for some years now. Often change is only noticed after the event. Once data is collated and analysed.

Interesting that Paragon Bank are finding it more difficult to sell securitisation issues of BTL mortgage debt. Due to the UK Governments sale of mortgage debt ( through NRAM). Seems even international investors are getting indigestion. There's only so much appetite for the offerings.

Always look at the wider picture. Not fixatated on one aspect. The tide turns very quickly sometimes before you realise it.