Buy-to-let investors will need 50pc deposit - or no mortgage

westernpromise

wotsthat wrote: »

Capital Economics predicting a crash, BTL owners about to go bust and immigration. It could have been here, yesterday.

I stopped reading the newsgroups about 2006, but was an aficianado of them for about 10 years. It was very noticeable how little the content changed over that time. Houses were overvalued, Burnley is fantastic value and I like it here so why doesn't everyone, Londoners are mad, the stock market's about to crash, buy gold - it was all there, 20 years ago.

The stopped clock analagy really is spot on. If people constantly forecast something that does indeed occasionally happen, they will indeed, as was famously said of Vince Cable, forecast 17 of the last 3 recessions. But it doesn't make them insightful, smart, or worth listening to, any more than you'd rely on a clock that was stopped at ten past eight.

Crashy_Time

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The entire BTL system has been ruined by greed.

At every angle, whether it's the landlord, the lender or the agency, the focus is always on the last penny in profit that can be squeezed from the system.

That may be fine in other business, but BTL is dealing with property, often based on government subsidy (housing benefit) and excess debt. It's therefore highly political.

I have no idea why Landlords have, for so long, let agencies get away with bleeding your own customers dry before they pass the customer onto yourselves. This is a mere example which has literally exploded over the past few years.

I truly believe that the industry has brought all of this on itself. The government (of many colours) have stood back a bit too much, with too little regulation. Now they are having to come down hard.

It looks like BTL could be the next "big issue" when it comes to financial fall out. Clearly the way the BOE and government are hitting the BTL sector they are very worried about it's potential impact on the economy.

I've made the mistake of looking on Property118 in recent times. The greed there is literally astounding.

The comedy value is so good though that I forgive them their greedy little ways ...:rotfl::T

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

With upward pressure on rents, why would they want to sell? The only reason that I am talking about selling soon, is because there is a lot of equity, that needs to be spent before I die, if I was younger or had children, I wouldn't sell.

Why do you think there is upward pressure on rents? BTL`ers trying to escape the new rules will have to sell cheaply to exit, renters will buy some of the stock, meaning less renters. HB is surely going to come under attack in the near future, and the UK population is for sure going to equate recent horrible events ( and the fact they can`t see a doctor in some places) with free and loose borders (caused by being under the heel of the EZ) when they vote on Europe? All in all a perfect storm for BTL IMO. BUT if you want to predict "Soaring Rents" for London, please do so because Hamish and his mad predictions certainly seem to have done the trick for Aberdeen

redux

Ha ha, I'm no expert on buy-to-let, don't have any at all, but surely if time travel is ever invented the time to have been buying was about 1996 to 2000, so why on earth were some people whingeing even then.

Crashy_Time

redux wrote: »

Ha ha, I'm no expert on buy-to-let, don't have any at all, but surely if time travel is ever invented the time to have been buying was about 1996 to 2000, so why on earth were some people whingeing even then.

The time to buy it was about then, or before, the time to sell it was a year or more ago, before the internet and media got filled up with landlords spitting the dummy about how they will be "ruined", and planning to take it out on their tenants as if they were some sort of hostage or something :rotfl: Seriously, to anyone reading with BTL (flats especially) the time to get out is NOW. And be prepared to knock money off straight away to get a sale, don`t be caught chasing the market down!

N1AK

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The time to buy it was about then, or before, the time to sell it was a year or more ago, before the internet and media got filled up with landlords spitting the dummy about how they will be "ruined", and planning to take it out on their tenants as if they were some sort of hostage or something :rotfl: Seriously, to anyone reading with BTL (flats especially) the time to get out is NOW. And be prepared to knock money off straight away to get a sale, don`t be caught chasing the market down!

Demand for housing isn't going to decrease, the only thing that might decrease is demand for owning property. A decrease in demand from BTL at the current price to rent balance doesn't mean prices will fall, and I'd be amazed if they fell more than a few %.

michaels

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Why do you think there is upward pressure on rents? BTL`ers trying to escape the new rules will have to sell cheaply to exit, renters will buy some of the stock, meaning less renters. HB is surely going to come under attack in the near future, and the UK population is for sure going to equate recent horrible events ( and the fact they can`t see a doctor in some places) with free and loose borders (caused by being under the heel of the EZ) when they vote on Europe? All in all a perfect storm for BTL IMO. BUT if you want to predict "Soaring Rents" for London, please do so because Hamish and his mad predictions certainly seem to have done the trick for Aberdeen

So the working theory on this board is that a 2 bedroom property will house 3 or 4 renters (sharers) but only 2 buyers hence if a renter buys their property that leaves 1 or 2 others who were sharers now looking for somewhere to live. This may not be correct but certainly sounds plausible in London/SE commuter areas.

Crashy_Time

N1AK wrote: »

Demand for housing isn't going to decrease, the only thing that might decrease is demand for owning property. A decrease in demand from BTL at the current price to rent balance doesn't mean prices will fall, and I'd be amazed if they fell more than a few %.

Demand to have a mortgage on a property will increase as prices fall. The banks and the government want more individuals/couples with one mortgage rather than some individuals running around with 20 or 30 mortgaged properties, this is better for financial stability. The PTB know that rates are going to go up, and that prices will fall anyway whatever they do now, so they are positioning themselves politically to make brownie/voter points at the expense of people with BTL property. More mortgages at lower prices and slightly higher rates is better and safer for the banks. The problem is (If you like your HPI) that once a price slide starts it is going to be very difficult to stop.

Crashy_Time

michaels wrote: »

So the working theory on this board is that a 2 bedroom property will house 3 or 4 renters (sharers) but only 2 buyers hence if a renter buys their property that leaves 1 or 2 others who were sharers now looking for somewhere to live. This may not be correct but certainly sounds plausible in London/SE commuter areas.

You could break it down in any number of ways, a couple could be buying with the intention of getting a lodger to pay some of the mortgage, a single guy could be buying and intending to let two Polish brickies share the spare room at a decent rent, some of the sharers could be sent back home depending on where the Brexit vote goes etc. etc.


Saying there are X number of people hitting the streets if X number of landlords sell is a very inaccurate science, and assuming that rents will go up because there are less landlords is equally just people grasping at straws because they have a VI or they plain just don`t know. What is sure I think is that the PTB no longer have the BTL`ers back, and there are going to be people who throw in their cards and put property up for sale, maybe flooding the market in some areas. This is going to have an effect on price to the downside, of that I am pretty sure.

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The time to buy it was about then, or before, the time to sell it was a year or more ago, before the internet and media got filled up with landlords spitting the dummy about how they will be "ruined", and planning to take it out on their tenants as if they were some sort of hostage or something :rotfl: Seriously, to anyone reading with BTL (flats especially) the time to get out is NOW. And be prepared to knock money off straight away to get a sale, don`t be caught chasing the market down!

You sold at the point which you say was the time to buy and have rented for the best part of a couple of decades since.

I mention this just in case anyone new to your ramblings mistake confidence for knowing what you're talking about.