Last minute entry

jonesMUFCforever

I quite like to enter competitions last minute - has anybody won using this method?
Am I more likely to win by entering at the beginning of a competition or is it just random or luck?

darrenrickerby

It's just completely random except in the case of daily entry draws. I normally do daily's on one go then sort the forum by date and do tomorrow's each day. I then pick up any new comps on the day, things like Twitter etc.

mjm3346

I have won early, late and middle, if they are properly random it makes no difference (there is a view that some twitter comps are more prone to select later entries but also that they favour tweets from people who interact more with the brand, have lots of non comping tweets etc)

jamielmdjs

Some believe companies can only see the last 25 or so retweets when they go on to choose a winner so they believe late is best on Twitter. I find most twitter comps choose a winner by replying to a comment so they aren't actually choosing from re-tweets. I think many don't understand re-tweet and think re-tweet means reply.


I am a late enterer. Sometimes VERY late. I try to do them all the day before they expire, but sometimes I am racing to the line of midnight on the day the comps expire.


Facebook - I think I do find a bit more success with late ones, but that could be coincidence.


On the 'random' point, for web entry. I've always wondered how the companies sort them before drawing. Is it sorted alphabetically - is it jumbled up - is it left in order of when your entry landed? Still a random choice - but the order of the list could make a difference with middle number maybe a bit more likely than very early/very late ones if left in order of entry.


All in all though - you're wasting a lot of energy thinking about it too much. There is no magic formula - different systems work at different times, enter, and forget.

mjm3346

jamielmdjs wrote: »

On the 'random' point, for web entry. I've always wondered how the companies sort them before drawing. Is it sorted alphabetically - is it jumbled up - is it left in order of when your entry landed? Still a random choice - but the order of the list could make a difference with middle number maybe a bit more likely than very early/very late ones if left in order of entry.
.

With some each entry is allocated a number and then a random number is selected so it doesn't matter what number you are allocated as they all have an equal chance of being picked.

rainbow83

I won a Dave Lackie comp on twitter and I entered just before it closed and also won from entering another twitter comp an hour before entering, could be just coincidence though

Blueyez

My second (and so far last twitter win) was a Dorothy Perkins "tweet to win comp" I was the last entrant to tweet. have tried that method since but no luck.

jamielmdjs

mjm3346 wrote: »

With some each entry is allocated a number and then a random number is selected so it doesn't matter what number you are allocated as they all have an equal chance of being picked.

I have seen this on facebook where the company replies to every thread with a number. I'd imagine web entry, email comps, rafflecopter, gleam all use something similar.


I'm still curious as to how some methods order them before assigning numbers.


You are right - the actual odds of every number is equal. But the probability of the number being somewhere in the middle block, rather than at the extremities is higher as there's more numbers in there so you might stand a better chance if you're in there - then it comes down to luck (that was probably really badly explained)


But again, it's just a passing thought - it's reading too much into it and enter and forget is, and always will be, the best policy.

hornetgirl

I met someone who claimed she had won trips to Las Vegas and to Orlando by being the last entrant. I'm not sure how she knew she was the last, but she was absolutely convinced that was the way to win.

mjm3346

jamielmdjs wrote: »

I'm still curious as to how some methods order them before assigning numbers.


You are right - the actual odds of every number is equal. But the probability of the number being somewhere in the middle block, rather than at the extremities is higher as there's more numbers in there so you might stand a better chance if you're in there - then it comes down to luck (that was probably really badly explained)

ITV used this

The Winner Selector works by taking in all entries to a competition from each entry route, and assigning a unique random number to every entry. This is done independently of the original entry method, and assures that each entry has the same chance of being selected, irrespective of the method of entry

It doesn't matter if you are assigned number 1 or 58,487 or 114,835 your chances of winning are the same, as are the chances of the winner being picked from say a block of 10,000 numbers at the start, middle or end of the sequence.
If you took a disproportionately large block of numbers there is a greater chance the winner would be in that block compared to a smaller one but those in the larger block would then have less chance of being the actual number picked than those in a smaller block, end result exactly the same chance of winning whatever the individual number is.

jamielmdjs wrote: »

But again, it's just a passing thought - it's reading too much into it and enter and forget is, and always will be, the best policy.

Certainly is.

Fudgethecat

I often miss a lot of the Friday twitter comps due to work but try to enter a few that end later in the evening. Won one on Friday which ended at 5.30pm and I entered at 5.26pm. However as my last twitter win was last Christmas it was probably just a fluke.