This could be a monster boom ...

MJ12

lisyloo wrote: »

Unless of course a sink hole opens up - Oh don't be so silly, that could never happen, there's ZERO risk with property.
Your retirement fund in property could NEVER just fall down a hole.

Quantum Mechanics suggests that you technically don't need a sink hole for that to happen.... technically....

buglawton

The biggest risk to residential property based pensions is ill-conceived swerves in government policy re buy to lets. But nothing like that could happen in Britain, could it?

Generali

It's looking likely that the Fed will raise rates at the December meeting of the FOMC.

eg: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/10/28/parsing-the-fed-how-the-october-statement-changed-from-september/

And many, many others available from your local search engine. The Journal piece is quite interesting as it compares across the current and the previous reports.

padington

Generali wrote: »

It's looking likely that the Fed will raise rates at the December meeting of the FOMC.

eg: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/10/28/parsing-the-fed-how-the-october-statement-changed-from-september/

And many, many others available from your local search engine. The Journal piece is quite interesting as it compares across the current and the previous reports.

How much do you think USA or the UK will be able to handle a much stronger dollar or pound with emerging markets suddenly hitting turmoil.

I really can't see these interest rates going anywhere. They'll try, then they'll freak out and stop or they'll raise them by so little, so slowly that nothing much happens.

They want to raise them without much blow back but they can want all they want, we're in a interdependent world, it won't happen.

Jonbvn

If the UK follows the USA with rate rises, then the stronger £ will likely kill off the remaining steel industry in the UK.

Of course, this is of little interest to estate agents in the SE

Generali

padington wrote: »

How much do you think USA or the UK will be able to handle a much stronger dollar or pound with emerging markets suddenly hitting turmoil.

I really can't see these interest rates going anywhere. They'll try, then they'll freak out and stop or they'll raise them by so little, so slowly that nothing much happens.

They want to raise them without much blow back but they can want all they want, we're in a interdependent world, it won't happen.

Frankly, the USA and particularly the Fed doesn't give a flying fox about EM.

The thing to remember is that even after the great rise of the emerging world, the USA is still 23% of world GDP and I expect that share to rise not fall over the next few years.

So much of EM economies have been a loop where China buys commodities, EM gets money, EM buys cars/TVs/air con units from China, China buys commodities and so on. China has stopped buying commodities. EM...? Ah.

The Fed has long had a saying about the US dollar, "It may be our currency but it's your problem".

padington

Generali wrote: »

Frankly, the USA and particularly the Fed doesn't give a flying fox about EM.

The thing to remember is that even after the great rise of the emerging world, the USA is still 23% of world GDP and I expect that share to rise not fall over the next few years.

So much of EM economies have been a loop where China buys commodities, EM gets money, EM buys cars/TVs/air con units from China, China buys commodities and so on. China has stopped buying commodities. EM...? Ah.

The Fed has long had a saying about the US dollar, "It may be our currency but it's your problem".

There'll be a new saying soon .. 'When the rest of the world catches a cold, so will America'.

.... and then we'll see a whole new world of 'quantative sneezing'. ©

Jason74

buglawton wrote: »

The biggest risk to residential property based pensions is ill-conceived swerves in government policy re buy to lets. But nothing like that could happen in Britain, could it?

Hmm, I'm not sure that anything that has happened in respect of tax changes to BTl could seriously be described as "ill conceived". "A good start" might be a better way of putting it. If that makes people who have chosen BTL as a pension vehicle to have to think again, then from a wider social perspective, that can only be a good thing.

lisyloo

"A good start" might be a better way of putting it.

I don't think it matters that much whether individuals consider it good or bad (although I tend towards Jason's point of view).
I took the significant point to be that risks over which an individual has no control can be a "game changer". There may be some known unknowns e.g. government policy, but there will also be some unknown, unknowns which obviously I can't list :-)

wotsthat

Jason74 wrote: »

Hmm, I'm not sure that anything that has happened in respect of tax changes to BTl could seriously be described as "ill conceived". "A good start" might be a better way of putting it. If that makes people who have chosen BTL as a pension vehicle to have to think again, then from a wider social perspective, that can only be a good thing.

If the tax changes to BTL persuade people against under diversification that's a good thing IMO but it would be an unintended consequence.

The tax changes were clumsy* tax grab and little, if anything, to do with the government's opinion on BTL.

* I understand some people think it's artful tax grab rather than clumsy as it's intended to encourage BTL owners to sell up and trigger a CGT bill.