MSE Pension Guide: a review

kidmugsy

jamesd wrote: »

Yes, I've seen some discussion of a possible change to lower rate of increase in life expectancy or maybe even a change to a slow decrease.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23126814

On this very forum a couple of years ago I was accused pretty much of being a madman or wild revolutionary for pointing out that increases in future life expectancy were mere guesses, not remotely facts. It's striking how people who don't, or didn't, make a living by trying to establish facts are prone to adopt modelled or predicted numbers as if they had the properties of facts. They don't.

jamesd

Well, I'd say more than mere guesses, since there is reason to believe that medicine will improve and that the improved life expectancy that comes from things that have already happened, like better nutrition or not smoking as much, are already part of the population. Yet this doesn't mean that it's always going to be a one way move. Maybe we'll have to get used to a bit more volatility in place of the long term trend we've seen so far.