Rents soar to (another) record high

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

That statement is incorrect as it stands.

It depends on time frame, accuracy of desired prediction and accuracy of measuring current state.

So in a sense you can make predictions, which may or may not have any real world bearing or application.

in the circumstances being discussed here : the predictability is not a function of the chaos: it may be a function of lack of knowledge but that's a different matter.

cells

mwpt wrote: »

So, when the time comes for the banks to raise rates, I guess we'll see Operation Tenant Shield soar into another gear and maybe another catchy hashtag of #TenantCharges.

Anyway, you both make some points which I will consider, and then probably reject. I expect you'll do the same for mine.

when rates rise so will rents but marginally that it will be difficult to show conclusively what was the driver. Some tenants will be hit by big increases as their landlords kept prices down for a decade thanks to lower rates so they had no excuse to up rent but they will have an excuse to do so when rates/taxes go up

Given the three possible outcomes, rent falls, rents rise, rents stay the same, its clear which is the most likely. We are just arguing over the magnitude of the increase

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

in the circumstances being discussed here : the predictability is not a function of the chaos: it may be a function of lack of knowledge but that's a different matter.

Disagree.

More characters.

wotsthat

mwpt wrote: »

If interest rates rose 2% would this count as a cost to landlords, passed on to tenants? Why did it not work in reverse?

All things being equal and in an efficient price transparent market with no sticky prices then an increase in costs would lead to higher prices and vice versa.

However, all things aren't equal, the rental market isn't completely efficient, prices aren't transparent and prices are sticky. That's why.

Think about your own situation. As interest rates have been on a glide path lower since the late nineties you arrived and added new demand. You also rented for a long time because you thought prices were too high and would fall and therefore renting increased in value as a means to wait for the crash/ avoid losing money. Prices are sticky too - landlords are loathe to increase prices for good tenants but they aren't going to volunteer to reduce prices either. There's no transparency - you probably only really knew the price of your rent and a few other people's too but probably had no idea of your landlord's business model so were in a weakened negotiating position.

It's quite exceptional, if it's the case, that lower costs of providing accommodation didn't lead to lower rates of rent increases or the savings just being pocketed by just one market participant. Exceptions don't prove rules.

economic

looking through these posts just make me laugh. there are far too many variables for even the smartest person on earth to be able to forecast accurately what will happen to rents.

only a computer can possibly forecast with accuracy.

CLAPTON

economic wrote: »

looking through these posts just make me laugh. There are far too many variables for even the smartest person on earth to be able to forecast accurately what will happen to rents.

Only a computer can possibly forecast with accuracy.

riro

..................

Crashy_Time

economic wrote: »

looking through these posts just make me laugh. there are far too many variables for even the smartest person on earth to be able to forecast accurately what will happen to rents.

only a computer can possibly forecast with accuracy.

Most of the posts are just claptrap dressed up as "knowledge", many of the posters are leveraged landlords IMO. Good luck with the "Sorry Buddy" letter to tenants in this environment chaps :rotfl:

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Most of the posts are just claptrap dressed up as "knowledge", many of the posters are leveraged landlords IMO. Good luck with the "Sorry Buddy" letter to tenants in this environment chaps :rotfl:

You lived in your last place 7 years, paid over £30k in rent and left because your landlord sold up. However you don't know if he sold or what he sold for. For all you know he didn't pay much more than £30k to start with.

You're not very well informed about your own position so your opinion about the position of others is based on prejudice and bias.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

You lived in your last place 7 years, paid over £30k in rent and left because your landlord sold up. However you don't know if he sold or what he sold for. For all you know he didn't pay much more than £30k to start with.

You're not very well informed about your own position so your opinion about the position of others is based on prejudice and bias.

So you are just another leveraged landlord then? Maybe the thought that this guy couldn`t sell upsets you a bit? :rotfl:

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So you are just another leveraged landlord then? Maybe the thought that this guy couldn`t sell upsets you a bit? :rotfl:

The rolling smiley is clearly a diversion to mask your pain.