Corbynomics: A Dystopia

BobQ

wotsthat wrote: »

I think Corbyn will be gone by Christmas. Please note when I first said this I was talking about Christmas 2015.

Can he hang on until the GE in 2020?

Britain is now virtually a one party state supported by two protest movements. In Scotland it is the SNP and Labour and Tories are the protest movements. In England and Wales it is Conservatives and Labour and UKIP are the protest movements.

Labour is capable of changing this under a credible Leader but now risks oblivion, despite being faced by one of the most bland PMs we have ever had.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

despite being faced by one of the most bland PMs we have ever had.

As long as the job gets done. Who cares? Nothing wrong in bland. Certainly is competent and tough enough.

davomcdave

westernpromise wrote: »

I've read that UKIP has real trouble even knowing where their vote is. AIUI, when serious parties contest a winnable seat, they get the foot soldiers to go out on the streets knocking on every door to find out how the occupants vote. They then map where their support is and where waverers are. This they call canvassing. Keeping canvass returns up to date is essential.

In the run up to polling they leaflet and doorstep everyone they've marked down as "persuadable", getting across whatever key messages they are campaigning on. If they are resourced to do so, they will note the demographics of each address too. So Labour in Copeland would have been telling little old ladies that the Tories were going to close the local hospital down, they'd be telling Student Grant types that Labour would kill all old people and give their houses to 20somethings, they'd be telling bearded Middle Eastern looking men that Labour would legalise honour killing and they'd be telling bearded vegetarian women that Labour would make men illegal.

On polling day itself they go round all these people, firm supporters especially, and remind them to vote, several times. Volunteers will drive them to the polling station if they are housebound. Ideally they'd have more volunteers at each polling station asking you who you are, but not how you voted, because the one tells them the other. Once you've voted they don't pester you again.

UKIP, apparently, falls at the first hurdle because in the typical seat, they can't find volunteers who can be ars3d to do the literal legwork of walking the streets of the seat, identifying who their supporters are. This could be because the typical UKIPper is a fat and blimpish old fool who can't be torn away from the golf course. But whatever the reason, their canvass returns are incomplete, out of date and completely useless. So they usually have no idea where their supporters are (to get their vote out) and no idea who or where the waverers are (to deliver tailored campaign messages to them).

With that hopeless level of disorganisation, their ability to attract a lot of SHOUTY UPPERCASE NUTTERS to message boards but inability to turn this into seats won makes more sense. They have no critical mass of genuine grassroots support anywhere in any seat. The actual number of angry w4nkers in any seat is low anyway, and those there are just want to shout at immigrants from a keyboard, rather than walk streets in the rain for five years between elections.

If we look at polling then we can get a fair idea of who is voting UKIP:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/auuihsqsjz/TimesResults_170213_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

That suggests that they tend to attract middle aged, poorer, mostly male voters that live outside London and Scotland.

UKIP do face a problem that they don't have the infrastructure that Labour and the Tories have but Labour seems to be shedding their core vote. The 20 seats with the lowest turnout are Labour seats and Tristan Hunt was elected with fewer than a fifth of the votes in his constituency!

It's hard to see a way back for Labour. Their members are from the hard left and determined to have a leader that represents their views. The British people have consistently rejected both the right of the Tory party and the left of the Labour party with the exceptions of Maggie and Clem.

Doshwaster

davomcdave wrote: »

If we look at polling then we can get a fair idea of who is voting UKIP:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/auuihsqsjz/TimesResults_170213_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

That suggests that they tend to attract middle aged, poorer, mostly male voters that live outside London and Scotland.

The problem for them is that isn't a wide enough demographic to win a significant number of seats. It will get you 15-20% in a lot of constituencies but not to the 35-40% level you need.

Among middle income professionals who I work with I know a mix of Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters but I can't think of a single person who I know votes UKIP.

davomcdave

Doshwaster wrote: »

The problem for them is that isn't a wide enough demographic to win a significant number of seats. It will get you 15-20% in a lot of constituencies but not to the 35-40% level you need.

Among middle income professionals who I work with I know a mix of Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters but I can't think of a single person who I know votes UKIP.

Increasingly to unseat a Labour candidate 25-30% is enough. As I said, Tristan Hunt was elected with less than 20% of the electorate supporting him.

The first stage of Labour's destruction is complete, people no longer voting for them, the second part comes next, those that no longer vote Labour voting for someone else, probably UKIP although perhaps someone else. Just look at what has happened in Scotland.

Moby

mrginge wrote: »

It does seem a bit bizarre that today we have a broad spread of parties across the political spectrum and yet the big complaint is that the Labour Party is useless and unelectable.

Well tough. If you're a centre-left blairite then the answer is simple. Join the lib dems. Leave the Labour Party to the far left socialists. I'm sure the they would be delighted to have a huge raft of new members who pretty much share their ideology identically.

Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott ...etc are laughing in the MPs and voters faces because they know that you're all too tied to this ridiculous notion of lifelong support to actually grow a pair and stand up for your apparent beliefs.
I have zero sympathy.

Splitting parties never works.....look what happened to the SDP. Moderates have to stay put and grin and bear it until Corbyn and his obnoxious coterie are ejected!

StevieJ

I can see a definite way back for Labour.

1) Disillusionment among new party members, leading them to quit.
2) Election of David Milliband as new leader.
3) Positive pro EU stance from the party
4) Brexit goes 'belly up' leading to middle ground Brexit supporters losing faith (not the looney tunes).

Just one scenario

antrobus

StevieJ wrote: »

I can see a definite way back for Labour.

1) Disillusionment among new party members, leading them to quit.
2) Election of David Milliband as new leader.
3) Positive pro EU stance from the party
4) Brexit goes 'belly up' leading to middle ground Brexit supporters losing faith (not the looney tunes).

Just one scenario

One fundamental problem with that scenario. David Miliband is not a MP, and not even eligible for nomination as leader. You would need a sitting Labour MP to resign, and a by-election, before he could even mount a challenge. I'm not convinced that the Corbynistas would allow him to be picked as a candidate, even if there was a constituency that did, and neither am I convinced that Labour would win the by-election.

StevieJ

antrobus wrote: »

One fundamental problem with that scenario. David Miliband is not a MP, and not even eligible for nomination as leader. You would need a sitting Labour MP to resign, and a by-election, before he could even mount a challenge. I'm not convinced that the Corbynistas would allow him to be picked as a candidate, even if there was a constituency that did, and neither am I convinced that Labour would win the by-election.

We have seen stranger things in recent months.

antrobus

Moby wrote: »

Splitting parties never works.....look what happened to the SDP. Moderates have to stay put and grin and bear it until Corbyn and his obnoxious coterie are ejected!

They may well have to wait a while.

They may well have to wait until the mother of all electoral defeats in 2020 before the penny drops. And the trouble is that the scale of that defeat might mean it's 2030 before Labour can even get back into contention.