Doom laden financial article

TickersPlaysPop

CLAPTON wrote: »

anyway, good news for UK house building

I hope so, but you are maybe referring to extra demand helping to support more building?

That is exactly not what should happen next!

This is exactly the right time to discourage non UK resident residential property investment via government tax policy and property laws.

Our residential property market is exposed on the global investment market and treated and used like every other commodity.... this is simply wrong and a toxic policy which is creating social corrosion. Generation rent are having their future financial security stolen from them by the landlord generation.

dealer_wins

Stock market crashes are great for anyone who is 5+ years from retirement.

lawriejones1

Crashes are great if you assume share prices will forever continue to grow...

Generali

lawriejones1 wrote: »

Crashes are great if you assume share prices will forever continue to grow...

Long term, share prices should increase with nominal GDP. If you think nominal GDP is likely to continue to grow then you should be in shares.

MJ12

Crashes are great if you assume share prices will forever continue to grow...

Generali wrote: »

Long term, share prices should increase with nominal GDP. If you think nominal GDP is likely to continue to grow then you should be in shares.

We have a debt based economy. Prices always increase in the long run, so does the buying power per unit of currency decrease with time.

Generali

MJ12 wrote: »

We have a debt based economy. Prices always increase in the long run, so does the buying power per unit of currency decrease with time.

Right but real share prices increase in the long term as does GDP. Share prices should continue to rise as GDP continues to rise.

GDP has increased most years since about 1750 so I'd be wary of calling an end to it too soon.

PixelPound

China has been booming whilst we have been in recession, so they have some realignment. The sad thing is our recovery will falter because of it. Hmm so we are reliant on those boom countries continuing to boom and so fragile a recovery that its brought to a halt by the flap of a butterfly wings anywhere in the world.

Generali

nic_c wrote: »

China has been booming whilst we have been in recession, so they have some realignment. The sad thing is our recovery will falter because of it. Hmm so we are reliant on those boom countries continuing to boom and so fragile a recovery that its brought to a halt by the flap of a butterfly wings anywhere in the world.

Not true. Why would someone who is a massive net exporter to the UK having problems, if they do have problems, derail the recovery?

I suspect it's more that you wish this than that you have any clear idea as to why it would or could.

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

GDP has increased most years since about 1750 so I'd be wary of calling an end to it too soon.

There's a simple formula to calculate the end of days.

Take today's date and add one. Repeat daily.

Thousands of years of progress and 1st September 2015 is when it starts to go backwards.

sabretoothtigger

lawriejones1 wrote: »

Crashes are great if you assume share prices will forever continue to grow...

Crashes are great if the company can continue to pay a dividend from profits. The ideal is if share price never really rises because it allows for reinvestment of the dividend and greater returns in future.

Compound interest, I think pretty much the share price never matters absolutely because you can just take the company private eventually and screw the market as its a golden goose if you made that much


I was looking for all the old doom threads but I think the mods culled them to avert our gaze from the inevitable but never fear, doom is here. Natural effects always outweigh perceived negatives, GDP rises from population growth mostly which in turn ultimately makes investment justified and profitable
Top 5 things worse then national debt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=BKfZFsbpYjg#t=79

= 6 - Interest rate shock =

Interest rates have been held at emergency lows in the UK and US for around six years. The US is expected to move first, with rates starting to rise from today’s 0pc-0.25pc around the end of the year. Investors have already starting buying dollars in anticipation of a strengthening US currency. UK rate rises are expected to follow shortly after .

USA cannot raise rates. Really its long overdue in a normal fashion, probably within 2009 there should have been some raise.
The rates relate to government debt and wont go back up, before then they have to reverse QE and its not happening not by choice

= 8 - Overvalued US market =

In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio or Shiller CAPE for the S&P 500 stands at 27.2, some 64pc above its historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher in 1929, 2000 and 2007."

The alternative there is that currency continues on its trend of less worth and since shares reflect future movements not present it would make share prices correct or more so then it appears when considering them with historic measures. I think it bounces between both considerations but they'll not raise rates till forced