ONS HPI June 2015. MoM up a bit and YoY also up a bit

mayonnaise

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_413468.pdf

MoM is just noise
YoY +5.7%

YoY levelling out, bringing it roughly in line with average pay rises. Good news I guess.

Generali

MoM is just noise.

mayonnaise

Generali wrote: »

MoM is just noise.

Thanks. I have amended my post.

Mummyisbeauty

Yikes, who got a pay rise that large?

MARTYM8`

Aren’t these averages meaningless anyway?

What matters is the price of the property you want to buy or sell in the town you want to buy in. Everything else is BS and spin to keep the likes of Anna White in a job with her almost daily property articles spouting some latest set of nonsense statistics from some property ‘expert’.

Apparently prices are up 9% in Ulster and down 0.6% in Scotland – and there are no doubt huge variations between different areas with some probably showing even larger rises and bigger drops.

How about some press articles about the variation in the average cost of decorators, plumbers or Mars bars?:D

What a sad little country we are where you make more money - well on paper - by sitting on your settee a year than going out and grafting and creating something useful

Graham_Devon

Mummyisbeauty wrote: »

Yikes, who got a pay rise that large?

Someone did.

It's mayonnaise though, so when he says "roughly in line with wages" he means "house prices are growing at more than double the rate of average pay rises".

He get's a little excited, so you have to forgive him.

Loughton_Monkey

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Someone did.

It's mayonnaise though, so when he says "roughly in line with wages" he means "house prices are growing at more than double the rate of average pay rises".

He get's a little excited, so you have to forgive him.

Your usual claptrap, Graham.

He's probably more right than you think.

It is wrong to compare house prices (or indeed any price) with the ONS measure of average wage. That has nothing to do with "average pay rises".

Every working person receives a wage. In a large number of cases (admitedly not all) that person will get an 'increment' plus some sort of blanket inflationary rise (or not maybe). In addition a smaller (but significant) proportion will get promoted and earn a hefty rise as well.

At the same time, the UK workforce is changing all the time. Every minute of the day, someone retires, or leaves the job. Typically these are the older, more experienced, higher paid people. The employer never goes to job centre and grabs an unemployed 17 year old spotty lad to be the new Finance Director. The old FD was earning £100K. The £70K Chief Accountant is promoted and earns £85K. In turn, a senior accountant on £50K is promoted to Chief Accountant at £75K....

.... and so on. The 17 year old spotty lad (if educated enough) may well fit the niche as trainee invoice clerk at £13K....

So what has happened to the average wage in the Finance Division? It has actually declined. Except that most of the people in that division have had roughly 10% rise!

The UK average wage figures always have, and always will, be a function of X% rise given on average to all those who worked last year and this year, minus Y% reduction represented by 5% (say) of people who have dropped off the map (because of retirement) at £40K average, and indirectly replaced (as above) by £15K school leavers.

Although we don't get such statistics, I suspect that the 'Y%' is much larger than some people imagine. Even though we've had the recession, that didn't stop lots and lots of people getting promotion, or moving up their payscale. It didn't stop lots of people retiring when they became of age, and it didn't stop the massive recruitment of apprentices and 17 year old spotty youths to keep the wheels of industry and commerce in motion.

So get a grip!

Yes, average house price increase is not a bad indicator of how house prices have actually increased. That's because the stock of houses this year is very little changed from the stock of houses last year [too little as we know!]

But average wage rises for those people working is worlds apart from the average wage increase of all workers because the mix of people within a job, and pay grade changes far more - year on year - than you realise.

Graham_Devon

Oh sorry, my bad. I didn't realise only those who had been in their jobs for X numbers of years and had been promoted needed housing.

Loughton_Monkey

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Oh sorry, my bad. I didn't realise only those who had been in their jobs for X numbers of years and had been promoted needed housing.

You're obfuscating again. Virtually everyone in this country has housing. A disproportionate number of houses being funded fully or partly by the taxpayer.

You should try and understand that only a proportion of people (let's just guess at 60%) have ever been able to buy a house. The relative price of a house compared with your own specific earnings is subject to the vaguaries of the market. If you happen to be in the 'top 60%' then you can still buy a house. OK, maybe not the one you could have bought 2 years ago.

But in 5 years time, maybe the market changes. Now you can upsize.

If you want to argue with the thrust of what I said, then argue with what I said. I am saying that the measure of "average wage" is a very bad indicator of the ability of any one individual's abilty to cope with a house price rise marginally above average wage rise. Many, many, individuals receive wage rises at, or above, the current HPI and certainly more than the average wage rise.

I tried to explain in simple words why this is. If you cannot understand it, then that's your problem.

Graham_Devon

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

If you want to argue with the thrust of what I said, then argue with what I said. I am saying that the measure of "average wage" is a very bad indicator of the ability of any one individual's abilty to cope with a house price rise marginally above average wage rise. Many, many, individuals receive wage rises at, or above, the current HPI and certainly more than the average wage rise.

The whole point of an average is that it isn't looking at individuals.

Whos obfuscating?

All I ever said was that house prices were rising double that of the average wage. A simple fact. You come along and call that fact claptrap and descend into a dribbling mess.

Landofwood

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The whole point of an average is that it isn't looking at individuals.

Whos obfuscating?

All I ever said was that house prices were rising double that of the average wage. A simple fact. You come along and call that fact claptrap and descend into a dribbling mess.

He is not the one dribbling...

He's trying to help you grasp some basic concepts. Try to learn.