Nationwide July 2015 +0.4% MoM +3.5% YoY

mayonnaise

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Jul_2015.pdf

“After moderating over the past twelve months, there are
tentative signs that annual house price growth may be
stabilising close to the pace of earnings growth, which has
historically been around 4%.
“This would bode well for a sustainable increase in housing
market activity, though whether this will be maintained will
depend on whether building activity can keep pace with
increasing demand.
“The outlook on the demand side remains encouraging.
Employment growth has remained relatively robust in recent
quarters, and, after a prolonged period of subdued growth,
wage growth is also edging up. With consumer confidence
buoyant and mortgage rates still close to all-time lows,
demand for housing is likely to firm up in the quarters ahead."

Good news all around I'd say. No longer the silly HPI we saw in the first half of 2014, but now stabilising in line with earnings.

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Jul_2015.pdf
Good news all around I'd say. No longer the silly HPI we saw in the first half of 2014, but now stabilising in line with earnings.

As the report states, it's stabilising in line with historical earnings growth.

That's not todays earning growth, which is what matters.

Infact, in April, UK Earnings growth hit a four year high of 2.7%.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

As the report states, it's stabilising in line with historical earnings growth.

That's not todays earning growth, which is what matters.

Infact, in April, UK Earnings growth hit a four year high of 2.7%.

If you're not seeing your desired negative YoY a 16 month trend of falling YoY prices is the next best thing?

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

If you're not seeing your desired negative YoY a 16 month trend of falling YoY prices is the next best thing?

What's that got to do with my point?

Or were you just having a pop again?

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

As the report states, it's stabilising in line with historical earnings growth.

That's not todays earning growth, which is what matters.

Infact, in April, UK Earnings growth hit a four year high of 2.7%.

Which indicates that over time the rise in prices will fade away. Unlikely we'll be seeing 4% increase in pay across the board any time soon.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What's that got to do with my point?

That it's a tiny technicality. YoY increases are trending downwards and already under the historical earnings growth (whatever Nationwide say about stabilisation). That's a good thing I would've thought.

YoY increases not being as low as current wage growth this month seems neither here nor there.

However if you just wanted to point out 4% is a bigger number than 2.7% then I agree.

caronoel

But Graham and his friends on HPC keep telling me prices are falling?

Could it be that these crashists are talking through their respective derrières?

Losing_the_way

Halifax -0.6 MoM,

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/Media/Press-Releases/2015/halifax/halifax-house-price-index-june-20151/

chucknorris

Losing_the_way wrote: »

Halifax -0.6 MoM,

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/Media/Press-Releases/2015/halifax/halifax-house-price-index-june-20151/

But a much more healthy +7.9% year on year (albeit down from 9.6%).

Generali

Losing_the_way wrote: »

Halifax -0.6 MoM,

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/Media/Press-Releases/2015/halifax/halifax-house-price-index-june-20151/

Monthly figures are just noise (TM).

danothy

Generali wrote: »

Monthly figures are just noise (TM).

You (you!) have admitted that you don't actually do the maths to check that each monthly figure posted here is not statistically significant, and now you've trademarked that blithe-icity? For shame, Generali. For shame indeed.