People power has shut the doors on fracking in the UK

cells

ess0two wrote: »

Wells and infrastructure are a major issue.

Many think its just an issue of popping a small pipe in the ground.

you are wrong shale gas is extremely energy dense moreso than even nuclear energy

marcellus wells are getting EURs of 10bcf per well and remember there are multiple wells per pad

to put things into perspective that is roughly the annual usage of 200,000 UK homes. And remember one pad has maybe 10+ wells so each pad can feed some 2 million homes worth of nat gas


On average if the UK drilled just 1 pad a month it would cover pretty much all the gas needs of all the homes in the UK. 1 pad a month might sound a lot but consider over 10,000 homes are built each month (and a similar quantity of other things like shops and roads and schools and etc) so its not that much more additional building at all

shale has to be very energy dense how else is a £100m hole in the ground going to cover that cost plus make a profit plus had over 60% of sales as royalties?

cells

padington wrote: »

That's the problem, how do you incentivise local people to want to frack ?

If it was going to make a killing, the oil companies would be talking about possible large sums of compensation. The fact they aren't yet, makes me think the figures involved aren't as game changing as we are led to believe.

local people dont want anything built even things as common and inert as houses so the best thing nationally is to ignore the local people and do what helps the nation as a whole. the local people once its set up will be happy with it.

try building a new steel mill in a new location in the uk and its probably impossible everyone would be against. try closing an existing steel mill and people will be lobbying for it to stay open....


the shale revolution is far bigger than you can imagine. the problem is its not make much money for the big guys becuase its pushed the price down so if you are in the business of selling hydrocarbons its not your aim to flood the market and make it cheap you only want to bring out supply just enough to meet demand at prices you are happy with. So no big gas supplier wants to really bring shale to the uk and undercut their own existing sales.

In the USA though, shale oil plus shale gas in energy terms is outputting a combined 13-14 mbpd oil equivlant. a technology people still seem to think is an unprofitable hoax is producing more energy than saudi produces oil, more energy than russia produces nat gas, more energy than austrailia produces coal. all of that from close to zero just 10 years ago

zeupater

padington wrote: »

http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/13371361.Fracking_will_hurt_house_prices__Defra/

Hi

So, according to the article "In an official assessment of the impact of fracking, Defra warned that houses within a mile of wells were likely to fall in value by up to 7%. " - did they really ? - that's contrary to what the report as released actually says ... (this)" draft paper was intended as a review of existing literature. It includes early, often vague, assumptions which are not supported by appropriate evidence. These were never intended as considered Defra positions or as statements of fact" ..... I take it that you didn't read the full report as referenced in my post (#21) above ... oh well ....

Apart from the covering text referenced in post #21, how about we take a look at what was said in the report itself as opposed to what the press and certain groups are claiming ....

House prices in close proximity to the drilling operations are likely to fall. However, rents may increase due to additional demand from site workers and supply chain.

... and

b) Impact on housing demand and property prices

[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]As operations expand and new workers arrive into rural locations there may be a modest increase in demand for accommodation that could raise rents and cause affordability issues for rural residents seeking accommodation. For example, the Cuadrilla research quotes a figure of 83 FTE jobs being created on average for each drilled well in the UK, of which a % may seek[/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]accommodation in rural areas. On the other hand, those residents owning property close to the drilling site may suffer from lower resale prices due to the negative perception being located near the facility and potential risks. However, these effects will depend on a range of wider factors that influence rents and house prices such as planning policy, growth and investment from wider sectors, schools, flooding and insurance etc. Evidence from the US experience is listed below.[/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]A 2010 study in Texas[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]concluded that houses valued at more than $250,000 and within 1,000 feet of a well site saw their values decrease by 3 to 14 percent. Boxall et al. (2005) looked at the impact of property prices in Alberta Canada near sour gas wells and flaring oil batteries. They found a reduction in house prices of between 4% to 7% within 4 km of the wells. The results are statistically significant and robust. However, the use of a small dataset, sample of 532 observations, make disentangling impacts difficult in the presence of confounding variables and the study considered sour gas wells alongside other gas wells, which may not be comparable in a UK context.[/FONT][/FONT]


[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Gopalakrishnan and Klaiber (2013) looked at the impact on property prices in Pittsburgh, US, between 2008 and 2010 within a mile of a well pad with 7 wells. Property prices for households dependent on well water within a mile of the gas wells are found to be reduced by 5.6% on average. The sample data included 4,123 housing transactions in the period. The results are statistically significant and robust. However, the following limitations are worth highlighting: impacts relate to houses dependent on well water which may not be comparable to a UK setting; the period covered is relatively short term; and the authors also acknowledge that the lack of data to control for variables like higher property demand for working near wells and other factors, means that it’s difficult to eliminate other factors explaining the results. [/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Muehlenbachs et al. (2012) looked at the impact of property prices in Pennsylvania, US, within 2km of gas wells. They used a sample of 19,055 property transaction between 2004 and 2009. They find a positive price effect with living near a well on homes dependent on commercially piped water supply. Whilst they also find a reduction in property prices of up to 12.9% for groundwater dependent homes, this is not statistically significant result. The study is robust. However there are a number of limitations worth highlighting: there is not enough data to disentangle positive impacts (ie lease payments to homeowners living near wells, higher rental prices and other economic activity) from the negative impacts (drilling activity and noise impacts, increased traffic, and air and light pollution); and local impacts that determine the results may not be the same in UK setting. [/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Arial]
[FONT=Arial,Arial]Overall the evidence on impact on property prices in the literature is quite thin and the results are not conclusive. There could potentially be a range of 0 to 7% reductions in property values within 1 mile of an extraction site to reflect the impacts, where the high range reflects the top end of the Boxall et al (2005) estimate for the price fall. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial,Arial]Properties located within a 1 - 5 mile radius of the fracking operation may also incur an additional cost of insurance to cover losses in case of explosion on the site. Such an event would clearly have social impacts, although the probability is expected to be low if the regulator and company manage these risks effectively[/FONT]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][/FONT]

Again, simply another case of a newspaper article being driven more by sensationalism & ideology than supportable logic ....

HTH
Z

padington

So do you think drilling wouldn't badly effect the price of houses one mile from the
drill ?

The place will be a protestor camp for a start. For right or wrong you need to factor in the UK response, nimby's will be joining forces with the great unwashed.

It will get smelly, however sufficient tea and cake will be provided. In droves.

It could be a lethal combination, people with too much time on there hands uniting with people with too much money.

padington

cells wrote: »

local people dont want anything built even things as common and inert as houses so the best thing nationally is to ignore the local people and do what helps the nation as a whole. the local people once its set up will be happy with it.

try building a new steel mill in a new location in the uk and its probably impossible everyone would be against. try closing an existing steel mill and people will be lobbying for it to stay open....


the shale revolution is far bigger than you can imagine. the problem is its not make much money for the big guys becuase its pushed the price down so if you are in the business of selling hydrocarbons its not your aim to flood the market and make it cheap you only want to bring out supply just enough to meet demand at prices you are happy with. So no big gas supplier wants to really bring shale to the uk and undercut their own existing sales.

In the USA though, shale oil plus shale gas in energy terms is outputting a combined 13-14 mbpd oil equivlant. a technology people still seem to think is an unprofitable hoax is producing more energy than saudi produces oil, more energy than russia produces nat gas, more energy than austrailia produces coal. all of that from close to zero just 10 years ago

Couldn't we drill somewhere a little further away? The Falklands for example. Would wind the Argentinians up so would kill two birds with one stone.

zeupater

padington wrote: »

* looks up *

Who is this aggressive chump ?

I've copied a relevant link onto a relevant thread and made no judgement about it.

What a fr!gging nut job.

Hi

The only relevance I see is that as an example of well researched journalism, it's as irrelevant as the one referenced in post#1 ...

HTH
Z

padington

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

The only relevance I see is that as an example of well researched journalism, it's as irrelevant as the one referenced in post#1 ...

HTH
Z

For those reading this, my original response that has been quoted was tempered because on second reading it appeared z's response was not as aggressive as on first reading.

Protestors in the UK causing massive problems for local people as well as the unknown and fear that something might go wrong with the environment will have a bad effect on house prices in the local area, believe me.

Thinking otherwise suggests to me you must be from another country, yes ?

zeupater

padington wrote: »

So do you think drilling wouldn't badly effect the price of houses one mile from the
drill ?

The place will be a protestor camp for a start. For right or wrong you need to factor in the UK response, nimby's will be joining forces with the great unwashed.

It will get smelly, however sufficient tea and cake will be provided. In droves.

It could be a lethal combination, people with too much time on there hands uniting with people with too much money.

Whoops, changed - different answer to different wording for same post ... if that makes sense ... ... Anyway, thanks for the mod.
#

---

#
Hi

In that case I agree with cell's position on chemicals a few points ago (#31) as being a solution here too .... If you developed enough sites in parallel the effect is that the concentration of protest would be "diluted to the point of being totally harmless"

Anyway, something which may have an impact on house prices which has been totally overlooked was referenced by ggb1979 a few posts back (#41) ... a form of financial compensation which would likely more than cover any temporary property-price deflation whilst the well's in production ... might even increase values if potential buyers are looking for an additional revenue-stream ...

HTH
Z

padington

zeupater wrote: »

Whoops, changed - different answer to different wording for same post ... if that makes sense ... ... Anyway, thanks for the mod.
#

---

#
Hi

In that case I agree with cell's position on chemicals a few points ago (#31) as being a solution here too .... If you developed enough sites in parallel the effect is that the concentration of protest would be "diluted to the point of being totally harmless"

Anyway, something which may have an impact on house prices which has been totally overlooked was referenced by ggb1979 a few posts back (#41) ... a form of financial compensation which would likely more than cover any temporary property-price deflation whilst the well's in production ... might even increase values if potential buyers are looking for an additional revenue-stream ...

HTH
Z

Unless there is some new ground breaking new media which explores fracking and educates the public, any drilling between London and Brighton would bring chaos from protesting. No reason to not do it if it is safe but it will kick off big time.

zeupater

padington wrote: »

Unless there is some new ground breaking media which explores fracking and educates the public, any drilling between London and Brighton would bring chaos from protesting. No reason to not do it if it is safe but it will kick off big time.

Hi

I think that perception does the public at large an injustice ... many already see the protest and chaos as being the preserve of a very small vocal & mobile minority .... it's not uncommon to see the same faces popping up in different places ....

Anyway, London and Brighton is a long way from 'the North' ... I doubt that many of the ex-mining and manufacturing communities north of (say) Cheshire/Staffordshire/Derbyshire would welcome the 'great unwashed' with open arms as readily as the those in the relatively wealthy South-East ... so maybe it's a good thing, just see it as a transfer of wealth and investment from the South to the North for a change - after-all, it probably wouldn't be fair to see it 'kick off big time' again in Brighton - they're still distraught enough about a couple of weekends of Mods & Rockers having a little fun over 50 years ago to even notice that the economy has been pretty much screwed-up over the intervening years and we, as a country don't really produce anything that's not 'virtual' anymore ......

HTH
Z