The Greek vote on Austerity

MZhelp

If they say no, and that eventually leads to Greece being ejected from the euro, what's your view on the impact to UK house prices? There's a KPMG article / blog that shows it could knock 3% off the UK's output this year and the next, also mentions that arguably it could be as bad as the collapse of Lehmans.

Could this bring house price rises to an end, and potentially even cause a drop?

antrobus

cepheus wrote: »

4 out of 6 leading economists would vote No in the Greek referendum via Guardian ....

Link here;
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/03/greek-referendum-what-the-experts-say

For some reason you chose not to refer to the bit that goes "In an open letter 246 professors at economics schools and universities in Greece urged people to vote yes on Sunday or risk leaving the EU.":)

Masomnia

I have a hunch they'll vote yes. I think they've got to a point where they'll have to give in.

antrobus

MZhelp wrote: »

If they say no, and that eventually leads to Greece being ejected from the euro, what's your view on the impact to UK house prices? There's a KPMG article / blog that shows it could knock 3% off the UK's output this year and the next, also mentions that arguably it could be as bad as the collapse of Lehmans.....

This one here, I believe, https://blog.kpmg.co.uk/?p=683

It does date back to 2012 when it does seem that the chap at the OBR was worried about the impact of Grexit.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/may/18/uk-greece-exits-euro?

I can only assume that such a conclusions could only have been based on the belief that Grexit would lead to some wider economic downturn in the Eurozone; the UK's direct exposure to Greece is actually quite small.

MZhelp wrote: »

...Could this bring house price rises to an end, and potentially even cause a drop?

Well, if the result was another recession, the answer might well be 'yes'.

lvader

cepheus wrote: »

4 out of 6 leading economists would vote No in the Greek referendum via Guardian

No is the right call for the long term future of Greece, but short term (next 10 years) it will really screw up the country. People tend to vote for short term over long term.

michaels

Nowadays whenever there are public sector pay negotiations the first thing the union do is call a strike ballot whether they like what is on offer or not and the membership duly vote less on the understanding that even if they are happy with what is on offer voting for a strike is a costless way of seeking a better deal. Everyone understands this, it is just the way the game is played.

The Greek govt game theory players are trying to do the same, question is are the Greek voters smart enough to get it and vote no?

cepheus

MZhelp wrote: »

If they say no, and that eventually leads to Greece being ejected from the euro, what's your view on the impact to UK house prices? There's a KPMG article / blog that shows it could knock 3% off the UK's output this year and the next, also mentions that arguably it could be as bad as the collapse of Lehmans.

Could this bring house price rises to an end, and potentially even cause a drop?

Let's hope for a no then !

cepheus

lvader Old 30-06-2015, 4:17 PM

Polls suggest an easy yes win.

Source please? They were very close the last I checked.

lvader

I forget where I saw it but an early poll had the yes vote with a 5% lead. It's neck and neck now, but as with similar votes it probably will translate into a clear yes win.

lvader

Well thats it, polls now closed.