Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Cardew

Exiled_Tyke wrote: »

I would be grateful if you didn't attempt to defend your position to this post as really I am not interested. I have had my say

If you are 'not interested' and 'had your say' then place my posts, and anyone else whose views you dislike, on ignore.

Martyn1981

Here's some very, and I mean VERY big news.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund may pull out of fossil fuel investments. The fund was built up from the sales of oil and natural gas and is now worth around $1tn dollars, about $200,000 for every resident.

However, in the ultimate example of irony(?) the fund might divest from FF's as they are no longer seen as a sound long term investment.

Part of the risk is the fact that a huge percentage of most FF companies share value is based on the value of their reserves, but if we can't burn 80% of the known reserves as that would push us beyond the 'carbon budget', then those reserves are worthless.

Norway's $1tn wealth fund proposes ditching oil and gas investments

The bank that runs the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund has told the Norwegian government it should dump its shares in oil and gas companies, in a move that could have significant consequences for the sector.

Norges Bank, which manages Norway’s $1trn fund, said ministers should take the step to avoid the fund’s value being hit by a permanent fall in the oil price.

The fund was built on the back of Norway’s hydrocarbon wealth, and around 300bn krone (£27.73bn), or 6%, is invested in oil and gas companies.

Martyn1981

And news from Bonn, more countries have joined the UK in pledging to end the use of coal.

'Political watershed' as 19 countries pledge to phase out coal

Combined with the previous article, today might not be the day to buy coal shares.

michaels

Martyn1981 wrote: »

And news from Bonn, more countries have joined the UK in pledging to end the use of coal.

'Political watershed' as 19 countries pledge to phase out coal

Combined with the previous article, today might not be the day to buy coal shares.

Hmm, we have been burning a fair bit of coal this last week with the french connector running in 'reverse'...

NigeWick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Part of the risk is the fact that a huge percentage of most FF companies share value is based on the value of their reserves, but if we can't burn 80% of the known reserves as that would push us beyond the 'carbon budget', then those reserves are worthless.

Why do you think the Saudis are trying to flog off part of their oil business and are looking at renewables?

Martyn1981

Well, I was like a kid on Xmas Eve last night waiting for the launch, so up early to watch you-tube. Most links so far are a bit broken or edited, but some of the main news, and as Elon promised, it does blow the mind:

0-60 5 secs for the tractor (acronym was BAMF performance, work it out, starts with bad)

0-60 20 secs for the tractor-trailer at 80,000lb US max weight.

65mph at 5% grade v's 45mph for diesel.

Cd of 0.36 v's 0.38 for the Bugatti Chiron supercar. Bullet nose, flat underside, side panels that close the gap between tractor and trailer but open out with steering.

500 mile range (at highway speeds), with a 30 min 400 mile recharge at the new mega chargers to be rolled out. Most truck journeys in the US are less than 250 miles, so it will do - 'there and back'.

4 motors, but even if one or two fail it will drive like a diesel on 2 motors, so a 1,000,000 mile no breakdown guarantee.

Brake pads are quasi-infinite lifetime due to regenerative brakes.

Less chance of rollover due to battery pack floor, and impossible to jacknife due to automatic torque steering from the 4 independent motors.

Thermo-nuclear blast resistant armoured windscreen (or your money back!) as a windscreen cracks once per year on average, but the truck is not allowed to continue driving.

20% cheaper to run than a diesel, 3 trucks platooning 50% cheaper and cheaper than US rail.

Continuation of the Tesla program to roll out PV canopies and powerpacks at charge stations.

He didn't lie, my mind was blown.


They also launched the new Tesla Roadster. 0-60 1.9 secs, 2+2 seater, 620 mile range (over 1,000km), 200kWh battery pack, prototype 250+ mph.

“The point of doing this is just to give a hardcore smackdown to gasoline cars,” Musk said. “Driving a gasoline sports car is going to feel like a steam engine with a side of quiche.”

Edit: Time to slap in some links and additional points of interest:

The truck uses 4 motors from the Tesla Model 3, I guess that will greatly simplify things.

Tesla Semi Truck, Tesla Roadster 2.0, Tesla Pickup — Hot! From Unveiling Event! (101 Pics)

This is Tesla’s big new all-electric truck – the Tesla Semi

Official site - Tesla Semi

zeupater

Cardew wrote: »

... As for surveys. Ask the right question and most people would vote against ....

Hi

Excellent observation as long as the question has a bias, but not all surveys are conducted by unscrupulous research agencies on behalf of companies intent to express & support a view in a positive way, some are conducted to establish views & attitudes and monitor change over time ... for example the survey questions for the BEIS/DECC survey are openly published with any variances to the questions asked noted as net changes ...

I've had a look at the questions and all looks pretty open & straightforward to me ...

HTH
Z

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Well, I was like a kid on Xmas Eve last night waiting for the launch, so up early to watch you-tube. Most links so far are a bit broken or edited, but some of the main news, and as Elon promised, it does blow the mind:

0-60 5 secs for the tractor (acronym was BAMF performance, work it out, starts with bad)

0-60 20 secs for the tractor-trailer at 80,000lb US max weight.

65mph at 5% grade v's 45mph for diesel.

Cd of 0.36 v's 0.38 for the Bugatti Chiron supercar. Bullet nose, flat underside, side panels that close the gap between tractor and trailer but open out with steering.

500 mile range (at highway speeds), with a 30 min 400 mile recharge at the new mega chargers to be rolled out. Most truck journeys in the US are less than 250 miles, so it will do - 'there and back'.

4 motors, but even if one or two fail it will drive like a diesel on 2 motors, so a 1,000,000 mile no breakdown guarantee.

Brake pads are quasi-infinite lifetime due to regenerative brakes.

Less chance of rollover due to battery pack floor, and impossible to jacknife due to automatic torque steering from the 4 independent motors.

Thermo-nuclear blast resistant armoured windscreen (or your money back!) as a windscreen cracks once per year on average, but the truck is not allowed to continue driving.

20% cheaper to run than a diesel, 3 trucks platooning 50% cheaper and cheaper than US rail.

Continuation of the Tesla program to roll out PV canopies and powerpacks at charge stations.

He didn't lie, my mind was blown.


They also launched the new Tesla Roadster. 0-60 1.9 secs, 2+2 seater, 620 mile range (over 1,000km), 200kWh battery pack, prototype 250+ mph.


Edit: Time to slap in some links and additional points of interest:

The truck uses 4 motors from the Tesla Model 3, I guess that will greatly simplify things.

Tesla Semi Truck, Tesla Roadster 2.0, Tesla Pickup — Hot! From Unveiling Event! (101 Pics)

This is Tesla’s big new all-electric truck – the Tesla Semi

Official site - Tesla Semi

Hi

The big issue is pretty straightforward ... unlike individuals and their variable liking for 'bling' driving major purchase decisions, business is driven by the bottom line.

Cash-flow, financing, book value, depreciation & risk need to be weighed against operating costs & market access - on this occasion price is really a key factor even for early adopters ....

I'm really starting to have worries about a company starting to operate beyond it's reach & losing focus on key products .... with Tesla it's batteries, everything they're doing relies on ramping-up battery supply and quickly reducing costs through economies of scale .... yet as we've seen 3 new vehicles and a new (larger) Powerwall announced at the same time as there's volume related bottlenecks in technology which is key to the success of all of their mainline products - battery manufacturing ....

Hope I'm wrong, but it's starting to look like a R&D company simply using vast financial investment to accumulate 'Intellectual Property' before anyone else can, with a medium-term strategy of offloading assets and reaping the real reward - IPO Royalty payment revenue from existing legacy industries ....

I wish that Tesla would concentrate their efforts on doing what they said they'd do within the timescales they set themselves ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

The big issue is pretty straightforward ... unlike individuals and their variable liking for 'bling' driving major purchase decisions, business is driven by the bottom line.

Cash-flow, financing, book value, depreciation & risk need to be weighed against operating costs & market access - on this occasion price is really a key factor even for early adopters .....

Those are my thoughts too. Forget 'sexy' when it comes to freight haulage. If Tesla have cracked the price of diesel trucks then it's game over for the diesels. My understanding is that haulage is a cut throat market where you live or die on margins. I suspect a 20% margin (if Tesla have their numbers right) is a diesel killer.

zeupater wrote: »

Hi
I'm really starting to have worries about a company starting to operate beyond it's reach & losing focus on key products .... with Tesla it's batteries, everything they're doing relies on ramping-up battery supply and quickly reducing costs through economies of scale .... yet as we've seen 3 new vehicles and a new (larger) Powerwall announced at the same time as there's volume related bottlenecks in technology which is key to the success of all of their mainline products - battery manufacturing ....

Hope I'm wrong, but it's starting to look like a R&D company simply using vast financial investment to accumulate 'Intellectual Property' before anyone else can, with a medium-term strategy of offloading assets and reaping the real reward - IPO Royalty payment revenue from existing legacy industries ....

I wish that Tesla would concentrate their efforts on doing what they said they'd do within the timescales they set themselves ...

HTH
Z

I wouldn't worry too much, having watched the 'warm up man' at the launch, Tesla already have truck based partnerships for the vehicle, and plenty of orders. I'm also gonna stick my neck out and say that the truck is 'easy'. Oh boy!

What I mean, is that the basics of a truck are relatively simple:-

a massive ladder chassis strong enough to support the weight of the tractor, and around 50% of the weight of the trailer, so nothing new here.

The tricky stuff is the computing, battery and drivetrain. Well Tesla already have the computing, the drivetrain is single gear plus 4 model 3 motors, so sorted, and the battery is a variant on the model 3 batts too.

I'm not trying to say the truck is easy, just that it shouldn't be hard to put all of the complicated bits together given that Tesla have already done the groundwork.

As to their other models, production of the 3 is limited by parts, but they are taking that in house now. And the Y, to be launched in a year or so (completing the S3XY lineup) is a small SUV but based on the 3's architecture, so more about setting up the production line than any other major changes.


But .... the new roadster, now that's a different kettle of fish. It's off the charts.

How are they gonna fit 200kWh's into that small car, do they have some battery tech up their sleeve.

How can it do 0-60 in 1.9secs, that's beyond the supposedly theoretical limit of 2s for a road legal car on road legal tyres (max width tyres). If interested, max acceleration can be calculated backwards from max braking, since acceleration isn't limited by power, but by grip. If a car can't brake from 60-0 in less than 2 secs, then 'technically' the rubber can't allow acceleration that's even better. So mind blowing!

Speaking off mind blowing, I ran the 10,000Nm of torque through a conversion and still haven't recovered .....

quick story, my namesake 1981 Trans-Am was not that powerful a car due to all the clean air regs that came out in the late 70's, but a very powerful American muscle car will have around 400ft lb's of torque, let's call it 375ft lbs.

The roadster will also have 375ft lbs of torque, only there's a 7 before it .... 7,375ft lbs.

The world has gone mad.

Martyn1981

Short summary of the climate conference, and it didn't go too well for the official US representatives, but did go very well for the 'unofficial' representatives who between them would represent the third largest economy in the world (if those US states and cities were a country).

Climate summit goes slow and steady but King Coal looms

The Trump administration, which wants the US to be the only country in the world not in the Paris deal, was the pantomime villain, but only succeeded in uniting the 195 other nations against it. The sole US event brought an executive from Peabody, the US coal company with a long history of funding climate denial, to argue for “clean coal”. A protest song and walkout from most of the audience followed and for the rest of the summit, the US delegation was irrelevant.

But the large coalition of US cities and states backing climate action – which as a group represents the third-largest economy in the world – stole the American show, with the California governor, Jerry Brown, popping up everywhere, pumping up the crowds.