Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

Progress on one of the large planned interconnectors to move leccy between England and Scotland. 2GW and target completion date of 2029.

Scotland-England cable link clears planning

Planning consent for a new subsea electricity superhighway between Scotland and England has now been granted by all relevant authorities.

Eastern Green Link 2 (EGL2) is a 525kV, 2GW high voltage direct current (HVDC) subsea transmission cable from Peterhead in Scotland to Drax in England, to be delivered as a joint venture between National Grid and SSEN Transmission.

Planning consent has now been granted for all onshore and offshore elements of the project, including new converter stations and onshore and offshore cables.

Sarah Sale, EGL2 Deputy Project Director, said: “We are delighted that our plans for the onshore and offshore elements of our project have been approved by all local planning authorities and marine licencing organisations.

“What was particularly pleasing to hear, was the support for the project and its purpose from a number of those planning authorities.”

Construction is expected to begin in 2024, with a targeted operational date of 2029.

Too little, too late?  Are the financial incentives in terms of curtailment etc correct with National grid being a monopoly?

Martyn1981

This article has some good news, but stresses that the main reason for the reduction in FF's this year (v's last) is down to a reduction in demand. 

EU fossil fuel burning for electricity fell to lowest on record in 2023, data shows

The 27 member states burned 17% less fossil fuel to make electricity between January and June 2023 than over the same period the year before, a study from the clean energy thinktank Ember found. The EU made 410TWh of electricity from sources that release planet-heating gases, which analysts say is the lowest level since 2015 – the first year for which they have monthly data – and “very likely” since 2000.

The drop in fossil fuel generation was driven by a fall in demand for electricity, as well as some growth in clean power, the study found.

The report found that fossil generation in the first half of 2023 fell more than 20% in 11 EU countries and more than 30% in five of them. Fourteen countries saw their lowest total fossil generation on record for the period. In seven countries – Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Italy, Poland and Slovenia – fossil fuel burning hit its lowest levels this century.

Several countries broke records for the share of their power that came from renewable sources of energy, the report found. Greece and Romania passed 50% for the first time and Denmark and Portugal broke 75%.

The Ember report found some of the drop in demand was down to changes such as using energy more efficiently, but much of the shift was “not sustainable or desirable”.

The report called on governments to build wind turbines and solar panels faster. It also said they should “urgently” expand the electricity grid, build more batteries to store electricity and streamline the process to get permits for clean energy infrastructure.

Martyn1981

Nice to see some numbers on the cost savings that RE is now bringing. It acknowledges the inflationary impact on RE in 2022, and points out that this causes differences across areas. But overall (for 2022) a weighted net decrease in costs, apart from offshore wind and hydropower.

‘Renewables slash power sector costs by $520bn’

The fossil fuel price crisis has accelerated the competitiveness of renewable power, helping global power sector costs by $520bn in 2022.

A new report by IRENA found that 86% (187GW) of all the newly commissioned renewable capacity in 2022 had lower costs than fossil fuel-fired electricity.

Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, published by IRENA, shows that the renewable power added in 2022 reduced the fuel bill of the electricity sector worldwide.

New capacity added since 2000 reduced the electricity sector fuel bill in 2022 by at least $520bn, while in non-OECD countries, just the saving over the lifetime of new capacity additions in 2022 will reduce costs by up to $580bn.

Without the deployment of renewables over the last two decades, the economic disruption from the fossil fuel price shock in 2022 would have been much worse and possibly beyond many governments ability to soften with public funding.

For the last 13 to 15 years, renewable power generation costs from solar and wind power have been falling.

Between 2010 and 2022, solar and wind power became cost-competitive with fossil fuels even without financial support.

Martyn1981

Fun little 'side' story. We have a wave energy device, designed to generate and store energy for marine use. Trials this year, in Scotland, have been successful, and are being extended.

Wave-powered subsea storage charger completes trials

An underwater battery storage system that can power subsea equipment through being recharged by a wave energy device has successfully completed its initial four-month test programme in the UK North Sea.

Deployed in the waters five kilometres off the East coast of Orkney, Scotland in February 2023, Mocean Energy's Blue X wave converter (pictured) was connected with a Halo underwater battery developed by Aberdeen intelligent energy management specialists Verlume.

The four-month RSP test programme was devised to prove the concept of using renewables to power subsea equipment, employing intelligent subsea battery storage to manage the inherent intermittency and deliver a continuous power output through the batteries.

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 said:

Martyn1981 said:

Coastalwatch said:

On the positive side, at least production at scale must be taking place and while costs for this will be reducing I suspect the bigger players will already have gobbled up the lion's share leaving other markets to negotiate their own deals regarding any excess.

But I'm merely "shooting from the hip" so happy to be proved otherwise!

Hiya CW. Also shooting from the hip, but if I tell you what I'm basing my guesses on, then you can also 'play along at home'.

So, you've probably noticed that lots of the storage deployments in the news now mention Tesla Megapacks, so you can actually view the ordering page:

Order Megapack

Last time I looked, they were sold out till 2024 Q3, but now it's Q4. Also, and whilst I forget the exact price, the cost per Megapack (leaving defaults alone), was a little under $2m for the 4hr model, and a little over $2m for the 2hr version.

Now I see that the prices (like the waiting time) have risen to $2.1m and $2.6m (for the 4hr and 2hr respectively). Prices reduce as you order more. For huge installs of 1,000 units (3.9GWh), they 'only' cost $1.7m / $1.9m each. 

Obviously this may mean nothing, but given that they seem to be the largest supplier now, following their prices and delivery times may give some indication of supply and demand for such storage.

Hi CW (and all), assuming price changes are a guage as I suggested (but may be wrong), then demand is perhaps rising fast, as a quick check on prices today are roughly $2.4m & £2.7m respectively.

Ouch!

Replying to myself, replying to myself (I see a pattern delevoping).

Just as a very loose guide/estimation of battery storage prices, here's another update on the price of an installed Tesla Megapack (3.9MWh).

Prices have just been reduced to $2m and $2.225m respectively for the 4hr and 2hr duration packs.

And the delivery dates have fallen to Q2 2024.

Again, don't take this too seriously, just a non-scientific tracker that may indicate battery costs, and production levels. Hopefully this reflects wider than just Tesla's Megapack.

Also, for future comparisons (tbh I failed to do this before), the cost without installation is $1.39m and $1.47m respectively for the 4hr and 2hr duration packs.

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 said:

Apologies in advance for what is going to be a very messy, and heavily caveated post, but the underlying news is good. I was going to post this on the BEV news thread, but in reality it's about the consumption of FF's, so more about green leccy, displacing FF's (including FF leccy generation).

So, peak oil, not that again! I'm sure I first heard of this as a kid, though that was the expectations that production would fall, but our ingenious minds just found ever more of it, or ways to extract tougher and more expensive sources, like tar sands, and shale oil.

So, peak oil 'demand', this article suggests that it may arrive later this decade.

There have already been some milestones from road transport (since that's where the majority of oil is consumed).

Firstly we reached 'peak' ICEV sales around 2017. But bad news, oil demand didn't drop, as even the lower number of ICEV sales, where still higher than the even lower sales around 10-20yrs earlier, which are the vehicles being displaced.

But good news, secondly, it looks like we hit 'peak ICE fleet' around 2021/22. But bad news again, still not peak oil, as the newer ICEV's being sold are typically heavier than the older ones being displaced, as tastes changed, and SUV's (or similar) became more popular..

So, peak oil demand, is it now really on the horizon? Yes, as the ICEV fleet* now starts to reduce, demand will fall. So thoughts, opinions and estimations are ever more now based on the actual shift away from oil, rather than just theories. Suggestions are that oil demand may peak in 2027.

A drop in demand could be devastating for nations that rely on oil revenue. A small drop in demand will most likley result in a larger drop in price. This can be managed by restricting supply, but if you know that demand is only going to keep falling, then you need to extract and sell your reserves asap. So oil cartel agreements may not hold.

[Note - Don't take the dates, nor my thoughts, too seriously, they are just estimations.]


*As cars/light vehicles make up the majority of FF consumption, I've used car numbers as a guide. Trucks and buses (for instance) are now following cars, China alone has about 1m electric trucks and buses. Two and three wheelers are moving to BEV's. Shipping is tougher, but as about 40% of international shipping (by weight) is for FF's, there will be a natural reduction in the fleet's oil consumption. Aircraft is harder, and whilst shorter flights will (eventually) move to electric, fuel consumption is expected to rise in line with demand.

IEA & Oilprice.Com See Peak Oil Happening This Decade

Back in 2019 — before the Covid pandemic hit — the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it had peered into the future and could see no sign of “peak oil” happening any time soon. There was simply no end to the demand for oil and other fossil fuels in sight. A lot has happened since then. Covid brought a sharp decline in economic activity. Then the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted Europe’s decades-long dependence on cheap Russian methane gas.

In June, the IEA took another look into the future and announced “peak oil” was in fact on the horizon. Here’s what its latest prognostications had to say.

“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.

“The Oil 2023 medium-term market report forecasts that based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) — supported by robust demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors. Despite this cumulative increase, annual demand growth is expected to shrivel from 2.4 mb/d this year to just 0.4 mb/d in 2028, putting a peak in demand in sight.

“In particular, the use of oil for transport fuels is set to go into decline after 2026 as the expansion of electric vehicles, the growth of biofuels and improving fuel economy reduce consumption.”

Just a small update, regarding peak oil, but it looks like the rapid rollout of BEV's in China, might mean a peak in petrol demand this year. Bloomberg go on to predict that China's demand for oil may peak in 2024/25.

The article also points to something that I often see raised when comparing the percentage of a nation's fleet that has gone BEV - not all cars are equal - that's to say, that not all cars do the same amount of mileage pa. Newer cars tend to drive more miles, so the impact of BEV's may be higher. For instance Norway's fleet now exceeds 20% BEV, but the impact on fuel sales may be more than 20%.

In the case of China, the 'non-equal cars' are ride-sharing vehicles, which cover more miles, and have a much higher percentage of BEV's, than the national fleet.

China Reaches Peak Gasoline in Milestone for Electric Vehicles

Earlier this month, Chinese oil giant Sinopec made a surprise announcement that mostly flew under the radar. It’s now expecting gasoline demand in China to peak this year, two years earlier than its previous outlooks.

The main culprit? The surging number of electric vehicles on the road.

As I’ve written previously, calling peaks is often a no-win endeavor for industry analysts. The call will either be correct but seem obvious after the fact, or wrong and lead to years of mockery. But this isn’t an analyst calling a peak; it’s China’s largest fuel distributor. Sinopec knows the fuel business, and more importantly, it has an interest in the business remaining robust. Saying it’s all downhill from here for gasoline is quite a statement.

There was one other interesting detail in Sinopec’s announcement: It also called out the effects China’s ride-hailing fleet is having on urban gasoline demand.

Vehicles used for ride-hailing in China are far more likely to be electric — their share is nearing 40% of the fleet — than those that are privately owned. Electric ride-hailing vehicles are also more productive than their gasoline-powered counterparts, accounting for 50% of the kilometers traveled on market leader Didi’s ride-hailing platform in December.

Coastalwatch

It seems storage batteries are scaling up down under!

Australia launches 600 MW/2.4 GWh tender

The tender will target 600 MW of dispatchable capacity with the equivalent of four hours of duration, or 2.4 GWh, across Victoria and South Australia.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/08/30/australia-launches-600-mw-2-4-gwh-tender/

Martyn1981

Woohoo, great news, the Gov is 'poised' to lift the near-ban on on-shore wind.

Forgive my sarcasm, but I believe they've been 'poised' for about 2yrs now. However, great news if it happens, shame about the lost opportunities and generation.

Rishi Sunak ‘poised to revoke ban on onshore windfarms’ – report

Rishi Sunak is reportedly planning to revoke the ban on building new onshore windfarms in order to head off a row with Conservative MPs for the second time.

Ministers are preparing to introduce changes to planning rules that will allow councils to give the go-ahead to turbine proposals where there is broad public support, according to the Telegraph.

The amendment to scrap the ban on new offshore wind was put forward by the former Cop26 president Alok Sharma and has since drawn support from a group of Tories including Liz Truss, who are “confident” that it will pass.

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

Woohoo, great news, the Gov is 'poised' to lift the near-ban on on-shore wind.

Forgive my sarcasm, but I believe they've been 'poised' for about 2yrs now. However, great news if it happens, shame about the lost opportunities and generation.

Rishi Sunak ‘poised to revoke ban on onshore windfarms’ – report

Rishi Sunak is reportedly planning to revoke the ban on building new onshore windfarms in order to head off a row with Conservative MPs for the second time.

Ministers are preparing to introduce changes to planning rules that will allow councils to give the go-ahead to turbine proposals where there is broad public support, according to the Telegraph.

The amendment to scrap the ban on new offshore wind was put forward by the former Cop26 president Alok Sharma and has since drawn support from a group of Tories including Liz Truss, who are “confident” that it will pass.

The cynic in me says this is a publicity quid pro quo for permitting airport expansion and the 'if the residents want it' will be the get out for why none is actually built.

Martyn1981

Article about batts and BEV's, but I think it may be better placed on here as it opens the door to more storage, regardless of what it is, or isn't used for.

Nice bit of background as to why lithium is important, so if the UK can produce it, economically, then good news all round.

UK’s Largest Lithium Deposit Is Being Developed

A new business deal promises to help develop the UK’s largest deposit of lithium. This is, of course, good for cleantech business in the UK and beyond, but before I get to the details on the deal, let’s talk about why this is also good for free countries transitioning to EVs.

Imerys, a big player in mineral-based specialty solutions, has acquired an 80% stake in British Lithium. British Lithium has developed a processing route to produce battery-grade lithium carbonate from Cornish granite. This transaction combines Imerys’ expertise in mining, infrastructure in Cornwall, R&D, process development capabilities, and lithium mineral resources with British Lithium’s bespoke technology and state-of-the-art lithium pilot plant. The plant recently demonstrated the production of battery-grade lithium carbonate.

After drilling and defining resources, inferred mineral resources are estimated at 161 million tonnes with a 0.54% lithium oxide grade^1^. These resources provide confidence to target a mine life exceeding 30 years, producing 20,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent per year. This could potentially supply enough for 500,000 electric vehicles annually by the end of the decade. It is projected to meet about two-thirds of Britain’s battery demand by 2030, when all UK car manufacturers transition to electric vehicles.