Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

Tesla has been struggling to deliver cars and burning through cash. Hedge funds have shorted its stock in the hope of making a quick killing. I have not seen anything in the main stream financial press to support the conspiracy theory put forward.

But to be fair you also weren't aware of the 40yr and still ongoing actions of Big Oil and the FF industries to delay/slow action on AGW.

Regarding Tesla you have one interpretation, the other is that they are meeting all of their long term targets, and will most likely exceed them, such as 1/2m cars in 2020. However the press tends to only refer to Elon's far higher aspirations when referring to 'targets'.

His targets have been described by some senior people and biographers as being based on - what could we achieve if everything goes perfectly well, everyone can work like him, and then knock a bit more off the timeline to allow for improvements during this development'.

Obviously his aim is unreachable, but perhaps if you aim for the stars you will reach the Moon, or even Mars.

As for burning through cash, that too is a misconception. Tesla is a fast growing company, in fact one of the fastest. Each time they took a breath after the rollout of a new model (the S, then X, then 3) they briefly went profitable, before beginning more investment in the next models or factory build outs.

Just like Amazon, expansion will show itself as losses if you are 'always' investing more.

Martyn1981

This article jumped out at me, but then appeared to be clickbait, but then proved to be fascinating news, and proof, I believe, that the UK government should go back to doing more to promote energy efficiency and nega-watts.

Clean Energy At 1 Cent Per Kilowatt-Hour

Through a combination of Energy Performance Contracts (EPC), direct install efficiency programs, education, and incentives for things like Energy Star refrigerators, Hawaii Energy has helped the residents of Hawaii drop their household energy consumption from an average of 584 kWh per month in 2011 to 482 kWh per month in 2017, roughly a 17.5% drop. This has contributed to a drop in the average residential electric bill from $202 in 2011 to $145 in 2017, a 28% drop, and amounting to a savings of about $700 per year per household.

1961Nick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Hiya, just to say that's the vid I posted too. I think it does a great job of explaining how 'odd' it's all been.

A few years ago when the media was full of FUD and nonsense about Tesla, I was reluctant to conclude any conspiracy. After all the US media, and news channels are funded via advertising, and Tesla doesn't advertise, plus being the new best thing will always attract attention. So when a Tesla catches fire it makes the news, but not the 100's of ICE cars that do that every day, or the lack of news on BMW's recent recall due to multiple fires.

But as the years have ticked on, and the FUD continued, Tesla has a supply problem, Tesla has a demand problem, etc etc my doubts have grown.

But the big one is the shorting, at around $10bn and 35%, they are simply in a league of their own, and to short them when their price was down to $180 seemed crazy.

But the good news, as that article explains, they are simply in a league of their own, and elsewhere the worst estimates suggest they have a base / asset value around $140/share at which point Amazon would most likely buy them out.

In a funny way they have also, almost become redundant. They have been producing cars now for over five years that have a purchase price similar to the competition, but have TCO's comparable to much cheaper cars and models, so the genie is out of the bottle, and EV's are unstoppable, but as the report (and the vid on it) explain, every day's delay is worth a vast amount of money to Big Oil, and also more status quo business for Big Auto, and the dealerships.

This disruption (like all before it) won't be pretty for the old guard, but for will create new jobs/industries, and for me its one of the best bits of good news since RE leccy has proven itself (won the battle) so shifting from low efficiency FF burning cars, to high efficiency leccy will allow RE to clean up that sector too.

You could easily argue that "Big Auto" has done Tesla a huge service in being so slow to join the party. Had they been just 2 or 3 years ahead of where they are now, their economies of scale & sheer size could have put a terminal squeeze on Tesla & the Model 3 especially. As well as being plagued by shorters, Tesla are also blessed with a group of shareholders that have enough belief to stick with them through thick & thin. Many of them don't care about making a profit on their investment, they just want to support a maverick who is prepared take on the old guard in this David & Goliath battle.

I'm eagerly awaiting the UK 2020 Q2 figures for the TM3. Hopefully supply won't be an issue.

Martyn1981

1961Nick wrote: »

You could easily argue that "Big Auto" has done Tesla a huge service in being so slow to join the party. Had they been just 2 or 3 years ahead of where they are now, their economies of scale & sheer size could have put a terminal squeeze on Tesla & the Model 3 especially. As well as being plagued by shorters, Tesla are also blessed with a group of shareholders that have enough belief to stick with them through thick & thin. Many of them don't care about making a profit on their investment, they just want to support a maverick who is prepared take on the old guard in this David & Goliath battle.

I'm eagerly awaiting the UK 2020 Q2 figures for the TM3. Hopefully supply won't be an issue.

Yes absolutely true.

The best summing up I've ever heard is that the German auto industry has still not been able to match the package of the 2012 TMS. But if they work hard over the next 3yrs they should be able to, so in 2022 they will only be a decade behind! :rotfl:


Regarding profits, whilst shareholders haven't seen dividends, if they did buy in at the IPO, then they are currently up around 1,300%.

JKenH

I am sure Tesla will do well. As I said they do make the best EVs and EVs are the future. I am not knocking Tesla and shorting the stock does not in itself mean it has no long term future. (I hold some shares that were heavily shorted last year from more than £20 down to £8. They are now back up to £20.)

I understand the point you are making about what Big Oil were doing 40 years ago but that does not mean every conspiracy theory about them should be believed.

We both watched the video and reached different conclusions. I think it is best, perhaps, if people just watch it and make their own judgement.

JKenH

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Just like Amazon, expansion will show itself as losses if you are 'always' investing more.

I really hope it works out for Tesla. Unfortunately for every Tesla or Amazon there are another dozen or so companies that looked so promising but never made it and that colours investors judgement. With another recession potentially just round the corner it is the newer companies that might find it hardest to survive as banks get cautious and pull the rug.

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

I understand the point you are making about what Big Oil were doing 40 years ago but that does not mean every conspiracy theory about them should be believed.

Just to be clear here, as I think you may have made a typpping mistake, not 'what they did 40yrs ago' but what they have been doing for the last 40yrs and still doing. There actions are well documented, and are now starting to lead to litigation, just like the actions of Big Tobacco before them.

JKenH wrote: »

We both watched the video and reached different conclusions. I think it is best, perhaps, if people just watch it and make their own judgement.

Yes, really appreciate your change of mind, we need to be open to the possibility of conspiracy, or not. It may be a duck, or perhaps just a black swan, but at this stage we can't rule out the possibility of yet more Big Oil interference in the greening of our planet.

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

I really hope it works out for Tesla. Unfortunately for every Tesla or Amazon there are another dozen or so companies that looked so promising but never made it and that colours investors judgement. With another recession potentially just round the corner it is the newer companies that might find it hardest to survive as banks get cautious and pull the rug.

But as is well known, and the video mentions, Tesla has never, ever had a problem in raising cash.

Also, as Elon explained a while back, the TM3 is the last vehicle on which he had to 'bet the farm', from here forward they expect to do most of their expansion from revenue, and are currently sitting on a vast cash 'war chest' despite the investment in the Shanghai Gigafactory, which should start production next quarter.

1961Nick

JKenH wrote: »

I really hope it works out for Tesla. Unfortunately for every Tesla or Amazon there are another dozen or so companies that looked so promising but never made it and that colours investors judgement. With another recession potentially just round the corner it is the newer companies that might find it hardest to survive as banks get cautious and pull the rug.

Tesla shareholders have proved that they have very strong stomachs & are prepared to keep dipping into their pockets to fund expansion regardless of losses. The fact that EM is prepared to stick two fingers up at Wall Street & financial regulators endears him to many stockholders who are onboard with his vision.

JKenH

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yes, really appreciate your change of mind, we need to be open to the possibility of conspiracy, or not. It may be a duck, or perhaps just a black swan, but at this stage we can't rule out the possibility of yet more Big Oil interference in the greening of our planet.

Actually, Mart, what I was suggesting was that we each had our own views on the conspiracy theory put forward on the video and we shouldn’t argue over it ad infinitum