Why the Tories Won

antrobus

zagfles wrote: »

Yes, but UKIP voters (IME anyway) tend to be proud and even vocal about their views, and won't care if others find them offensive. Or even relish it as an opportunity to have a rant about something they're angry about eg Europe, immigration, political correctness etc.

That is entirely possible.

zagfles wrote: »

...The idea that the Tories and Labour really were neck and neck right up to Wednesday but there was a massive swing on Thursday is ridiculous, unless something massive happened, perhaps similar to Madrid bombing which is said to have swung the Spanish election a few years ago.

But nothing like that happened here. Opinion doesn't change that much in a day.

I'm inclined to agree.

I am not convinced by the argument that there were some 900,000 people out there who were adamant that they were going to vote Labour right up until they woke up on Thursday morning, when they changed their mind, and decided to vote Conservative instead.

I think it far more likely that they always were going to vote Conservative, and that either (a) they told porkie pies, or (b) that there is a cohort of voters that the pollsters have missed out on.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

I cannot believe that the polls were consistently that wrong, so it has to come down to factors like differential turnout and the way undecided voters made their decision on the day. I doubt there was any one factor but the two I find most credible are Miliband and the SNP.

I think confidence in Miliband was a key factor in this together with a vote for the status quo. Miliband did a reasonable job, but the vitriolic treatment he got in the largely right wing press was likely to put some people off, however unfair it was. The fear factor of "vote Labour get SNP" was also effective, particularly with the press stoking the argument. The polls largely got the shares of the vote correct apart from the late swing from Labour to Tory. In the end people wanted the devil they thought they knew.

so labour lost unfairly

so spoken like a true democrat

no possibility that people didn't like his policies or didn't trust his judgement?

Thrugelmir

antrobus wrote: »

I don’t think it was a late swing either. YouGov did a re-contact survey on the day and found no significant evidence of this.

Perhaps 1,200 people isn't enough to provide a good prediction.

Whereas the exit poll was some 22,000 in key constituenices.

zagfles

antrobus wrote: »

That is entirely possible.



I'm inclined to agree.

I am not convinced by the argument that there were some 900,000 people out there who were adamant that they were going to vote Labour right up until they woke up on Thursday morning, when they changed their mind, and decided to vote Conservative instead.

I think it far more likely that they always were going to vote Conservative, and that either (a) they told porkie pies, or (b) that there is a cohort of voters that the pollsters have missed out on.

I don't want to start any conspiracy theories, but it seems the Betfair markets knew better than the pollsters....

http://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2015-betting/general-election-2015-the-market-assumes-a-late-tory-swing-but-will-it-materialise-040515-171.html

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Seems reality is starting to sink in over at Labour HQ.....

Labour must re-establish itself as the champion of aspirational voters, as it was during the Blair years, if it is to regain power, senior members of the party have said in the wake of its overwhelming election defeat.

The former home secretary Alan Johnson said on Saturday the next Labour leader must embrace the success of Blair, who led the party to three election victories. And the Blairite former culture minister Ben Bradshaw said the party and its next leader needed to “celebrate our entrepreneurs and wealth creators and not leave the impression they are part of the problem”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/alan-johnson-labour-aspirational-voters-tony-blair

gadgetmind

kabayiri wrote: »

I think the politicians need to understand where the rise of the UKIP vote in places like the Northern seats came from.

Mostly from Labour, or so I read in the Saturday papers. I'm inclined to agree as UKIP have definitely been going for the "working" class voters.

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

so labour lost unfairly

so spoken like a true democrat

no possibility that people didn't like his policies or didn't trust his judgement?

Of course there is a possibility that some did not like their policies, I never said otherwise. There is no legal requirement for an election to be fought fairly or for campaigning politicians to tell the truth, let alone for the press to assist in the process.

gadgetmind

kabayiri wrote: »

Isn't it strange how large scale state projects like HS2 or the new Nuclear power stations attract such derision from the left, yet large spending on benefits is smiled upon.

Yes, well observed. Borrowing for major infrastructure makes sense, borrowing to spend on bribing voters not so much. We're borrowing 2bn a day, and then paying 1bn straight back out on interest, and the bill will end up with people not currently old enough to vote.

BobQ

zagfles wrote: »

I don't want to start any conspiracy theories, but it seems the Betfair markets knew better than the pollsters....

http://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2015-betting/general-election-2015-the-market-assumes-a-late-tory-swing-but-will-it-materialise-040515-171.html

Perhaps a better question is what makes people bet against the polls and where do they get their confidence from. Is it just a case of a Tory voter having a flutter on what he hopes will be the outcome. Or is it canvasser of any party in a marginal constituency who is aware of the local intelligence from the door knocking/telephone calls they make?

spirit

don't forget the effect of the electoral reforms.

"One of the key components of the reforms is that universities and colleges can no longer block register students living in halls of residences to vote, which Miliband calls a “democratic scandal”.

My DiL works at a university who were trying to get students to register to vote. Not sure how successful they were.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/16/britains-1m-missing-voters

The students who did vote probably were not about to forgive Clegg re the university fees.