The Cost of Success

Generali

The one child family was a huge success: women were hounded into aborting second and additional children and a cultural change has now occurred when a second child is seen as decadent and the only child is feted as a little emperor.

There is no real tradition of retirement savings in China, unsurprising when more than 2 decades of GDP growth at about 10% a year has led to a median household income of about £7,000 so aged parents tend to rely on their children for support.

This is effectively how the UK's pension system works of course only instead of relying on your own children to support you, you rely on everyone's children to support you. The problem in China is that now a couple is likely to have 4 parents to support both emotionally and financially.

China's One Child policy began in 1979 officially but was taken up in some rural areas up to a decade prior to that so we have a small glimpse into the future and it ain't pretty. A place called Rudong in Hunan Province was the first adopter and lets us see where things may go in the next few years:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-24/no-country-for-kids-these-towns-show-what-china-will-become-i7nsvv1y

In Rudong, almost 30 percent of the county’s 1 million people are over 60, the highest rate in the country and almost double the national average, according to local government data. Among them are 172 registered as more than 100 years old.

Well of course the one child policy is being abandoned so things should sort themselves out, right? The trouble is, the policy of changing the cultural mindset was a little too successful:

Even with China’s workforce shrinking, the ruling Communist Party has been loath to abandon an ideology ingrained in citizens’ minds for decades. The government only relaxed the rules as part of President Xi Jinping’s policy blueprint announced in late 2013. Now couples where either parent is a single child are allowed a second baby, in addition to long-standing exceptions, such as minority groups......


Of China’s 1.36 billion people, only 11 million couples qualify for a second child under the new rules, and just 690,000 of those had applied to do so by the end of August, according to data from the family planning commission.

Anyhoo, an interesting read and something that seems certain to but the brakes on the Rise of China. My vote for most powerful nation in the world in 50 years? America still.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

...
Anyhoo, an interesting read and something that seems certain to but the brakes on the Rise of China. My vote for most powerful nation in the world in 50 years? America still.

I would agree.

China's development is impressive for illustrating what sheer force of will can achieve, but it has a cost as you illustrate.

I think that America will remain the centre for true innovation, and global ambition.

Is the issue of the elderly a temporary one? We use technology to repair and fix our old houses / cars / factories. Why can't we extend the serviceable working life of the elderly?

Generali

kabayiri wrote: »

I would agree.

China's development is impressive for illustrating what sheer force of will can achieve, but it has a cost as you illustrate.

I think that America will remain the centre for true innovation, and global ambition.

Is the issue of the elderly a temporary one? We use technology to repair and fix our old houses / cars / factories. Why can't we extend the serviceable working life of the elderly?

Until now, 'Big Pharma' has centred its product around Medicare and insured patients. Medicare in particular will pay huge amounts for drugs that extend quantity of life but little or nothing for drugs that extend quality of life (I have listened in to a few FDA discussions on drugs potentially up for Medicare inclusion and got a pretty good flavour for things).

Ultimately, drugs are going to be made for people with $50k/pa household incomes rather than $7k incomes.

If/when the Medicare voters start to want more quality of life and get vocal about it, that's what will be delivered to us all.

Loughton_Monkey

Employees of the firm I worked for in China had decent pensions, which in Asia are generally seen to be the responsibilities of employers rather than the state.

Whatever they do, I sincerely hope they do not adopt our 'hand to mouth' state system.

The 'fun' generally may come before your 50 year horizon. The oldest 'single children' are about 35, now, and give it only another 25 years and virtually all 'senior' politicians and company executives will be 'single children'.

When you work with the Chinese (the 20's to 30 when I was there) it is extremely striking that these people are generally selfish in the extreme, and enjoy the chilling ability to lunch happily with their colleagues, and by 2 p.m. be in my office trying to stick knives in the intelligence, dilligence, and competence of their fellow employees, before going out on a binge after work with the same colleagues.

These guys, to a man, are selfish, selfish, and selfish without any ability to relate to others as one would learn over the years with siblings.

Simple concepts like not standing in a restaurant doorway on your mobile phone, thereby blocking entry/exit does not occur to them.

How this will affect foreign relations in the future I'm not sure, but I certainly would not wish to negotiate with them.

TheBlueHorse

imagine a society where there is no concept of brother or sister. Or Aunt or uncle or neice or newphew. Odd.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

Is there enough rice in China to feed everyone if couples had just one more child?

princeofpounds

which in Asia are generally seen to be the responsibilities of employers rather than the state.

In China, most of the employers are the state.


Not true of all Asian countries of course.

chewmylegoff

I thought this was going to be another thread about Katie Hopkins.

michaels

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

Simple concepts like not standing in a restaurant doorway on your mobile phone, thereby blocking entry/exit does not occur to them.

So half of the people on the tube in London are single children on that basis...

Back on topic, don't forget there is also a huge excess of men, for whatever reason a single child policy seems to produce more boys than girls. What to do with an extra 50m single men all spoilt and selfish? Invasion of Taiwan sounds like the best way to stop them becoming politically agitated....

Generali

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

Is there enough rice in China to feed everyone if couples had just one more child?

No but that doesn't matter: the Americans and Europeans feed a large part of the world between them as it is.

The Chinese don't have enough water to feed their own population but they do have enough iPhones to do so!

Jonbvn

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

Simple concepts like not standing in a restaurant doorway on your mobile phone, thereby blocking entry/exit does not occur to them.

This is not peculiar to China. I have seen it in several countries with a slight bias towards Asia.

I fondly recall walking the streets of Tokyo/Bangkok/HK/Singapore whilst young people glued to their phones have bounced-off me. I knew those year playing rugby in the front row would pay-off.:rotfl: