Debate House Prices
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The Swanson Effect
Comments
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Yup. If you can only generate electricity part of the time you need to store it the rest of the time.
In places like Aus and CA it works rather better as peak output for panels and peak power usage is at the same time: mid-late afternoon on sunny days when people put the air con on. Solar works as a great supplement to the system as its output is highest when demand is highest.
Using the same principle when it rains here in Blighty we could all store the rainfall to be used in mini waterwheels; we would mostly be inside coz it's raining; and these mini waterwheels can produce ... erm milliWatts of power, hmm.
Sorry Gen. It's not working for me :rotfl:0 -
Or as I suggested import Norwegian hydro .....
Someone's already though of that ....
Which is why £1.4bn is being spent building the North Sea Network interconnector.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-320676750 -
My parents' solar panels come with a 25-year guarantee - so presumably this would cover performance degradation?Union, not Disunion
I have a Right Wing and a Left Wing.
It's the only way to fly straight.0 -
I'm not really up on this, but is there a big future in micro-generation?
I can see challenges with people trying to put surplus power back into the Grid.Union, not Disunion
I have a Right Wing and a Left Wing.
It's the only way to fly straight.0 -
Loughton_Monkey wrote: »I don't care how cheap it all becomes, there will be no solar panels uglifying the LM residence. Even if I have to use my heating allowance for heating!
I agree, they are very unsightly on roofs. Solar windows are the way to go IMO.
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/sharp-to-market-solar-windows_100012130/#axzz3Vb5irPbJ0 -
We've presumably all heard of Moore's Law. This is the idea coined by a founder of Intel that stated that the number of transistors on a microchip would double every 18 months. This has basically held true since Gordon Moore said it in 1965 and the result is that we can carry access to the sum of all the world's knowledge in our pockets for the price of a couple of days work (if we're rich, pampered Westerners).
I came across another idea today, The Swanson effect. This states that every time the quantity of solar panels doubles, the price falls by 20%. Twaddle? This is the price of solar panels since 1977:
Despite all that inflation, the price per watt generated has fallen from $76.67 to $0.74 in 36 years. California now generates 6% of its electricity from solar!
it is twaddle for a few reasons
firstly that price drop as an industry grows is true and has been true for virtually everything, but there exists a point where the learning and productivity increase is done and there is little to no further price falls
look at the big commodities, steel and cement for example. That twaddle theory held true for a long time but then it didn't. else steel and cement would be virtually free now
the more important part of the twaddle is that the doubling is over. world capacity is now about 50GW. This is very unlikely to double to 100GW and impossible that it will double to a 200GW per annum install rate
so believes in twaddle theory are somewhat screwed. no more doubling equals no more twaddle price falls0 -
What about the project in Spain, where they use arrays of essentially mirrors to focus sunlight into a concentrated point, heating a fluid and turning this into electrical power ?
It might sound low tech, but it also sounds workable and robust?
Actually I have such a system on my house although I confess it's not working at this moment because the pump failed.
There is a large panel on my roof which contains a set of pipes arranged like a radiator and which have a pump (when it's working!) feeding the "top" of pipe from a dedicated reservoir in the roof. The water flows through the pipes back into the water reservoir. The reservoir is connected to the hot water system of the house. When the sun shines it heats up ther water and the storage tank gets warmer and warmer and so does the hot water tank in the house so it uses less electricity to provide hot water for the house.
In the summer it works great and is sufficient to use for showers and baths, the water reaching around 60 degrees. In winter it still works although at a lower intensity. The sun is still warm during the winter of course although we see it less often.
One good thing is that if the pump is switched off the water runs out of the roof-mounted pipes which cannot, therefore, freeze. It's a great system. One could call those solar panels I suppose but that would be a misnomer.Union, not Disunion
I have a Right Wing and a Left Wing.
It's the only way to fly straight.0 -
Or as I suggested import Norwegian hydro that can be turned off/on at the flick of a switch for periods when renewables are not producing and sell them back power when they are so they can keep the necessary water availble 'on tap'....
dams dont work like that.
plus norways dams are not big enough to act as a seasonal battery for the UK let alone europe
Plus you will waste 15+ % or so of what you generate to send it there in the morning and retrieve it again at night0 -
Someone's already though of that ....
Which is why £1.4bn is being spent building the North Sea Network interconnector.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32067675
like the French interconnector it will act largely as a one way power flow from cheaper norway/france to more expensive UK
and clearly a 1.4GW inter-connector cant back up more than a 1.4GW wind farm or PV farm and the UK seems to want to build 40GW or more of PV/Wind in the not too distant future so unless norway can link us another 30 of these cables its not much of a solution0 -
A word of caution on Solar Panels - their performance decays over time.
A little more is here The Real Lifespan of Solar Panels but keep in mind the warnings of the earlier article I linked to.
So there is light on the horizon, if you will pardon the puns.
Everything I've read seems to fit in with your link. With suggested degradation being in the 0.5 to 0.7% pa range.
So if the panels last for 40 years, monocrystalline panels (the most popular in the UK for domestic installs) should still be producing around 80% of their rating.
Differences due to weather make comparing annual performance almost impossible. So far, against target, my systems have generated 2011 (part year) 98%, 2012 99%, 2013 104%, 2014 108%. 2015 is ahead of target .... so far!
Hopefully annual degradation will be lower than average inflation rises, negating any economic loss.
Here's an article on the oldest UK install:
First UK grid connected PV system 95% efficient 20 years later
Inverter lifetimes are hard to predict. Some come with 5 yr warranties, but one of mine has a 12 yr standard warranty, extendable to 20 yrs for £200. Some of the bigger German manufacturers suggest their kit will last 20 years (on average) but only time will tell. The above article suggests the inverter lasted for 14 years, though it's not clear if the inverter failed, as the article says the inverter was upgraded.
Mart.Mart. Cardiff. 8.72 kWp PV systems (2.12 SSW 4.6 ESE & 2.0 WNW). 20kWh battery storage. Two A2A units for cleaner heating. Two BEV's for cleaner driving.
For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.0
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