The next few decades and the end of work (v2)

Sardo_Numpsa

Hi,

I posted something similar on the Motley Fools forums and the conversation that followed didn't go entirely the way I hoped.

Then I accidentally posted this in the DFW forum...oops. Hopefully this is the right place.

I have had this idea for a while, from articles and books I have read as well as my personal observations, that the need for human labour across all industries is going to contract quite rapidly over the next few decades due to advances in technology, and it's not going to recover.

As far as I am concerned this will happen, 90% (I don't want to have the Luddite discussion here, google 'TED driods taking our jobs' if you are interested in the subject). What I want to put out there is, with most people only having their labour to sell to make a living, and the market for labour getting smaller, how could one prepare for such an eventuality?

My plan is as follows:

1. Pay off mortgage as fast as possible. (at this rate in 15 years)
2. Put as much into my pension as I can afford to that I can retire as early as possible. (age 55 if my earning power holds up)
3. Continually update my skills and learn about all aspects of the industry I am involved in, be a jack of all trades to ensure I remain in employment long enough to achieve points 1 and 2.

That seems like a good plan, and a lot of effort.

Thinking beyond that, I do OK money wise, I am not wealthy, I live a modest lifestyle but am still better off than most people in the UK, let alone the world. Even for me, somebody who sees this coming and is generally good with money, it's going to be tough. The vast majority of people living from day to day are going to be in serious trouble.

With that in mind I can foresee the government will have to intervene in a big way to provide an income for people, probably through a citizens basic income. This will not be a significant amount, I don't think it will be enough to make repayments on a mortgage for example. We could see a lot of people gradually defaulting on their mortgages, and the government may well have to step in here too. This may sound crazy but the only outcome I foresee is nationalisation of the housing stock. Does that sounds really crazy? What other option do they have? The banks will be on their last legs so they won't put up much resistance. I would imagine the state may well nationalise the banks and possibly other industries while they were at it.

That leads me to the question...if I am so sure this is going to happen, is there really any point putting in so much effort preparing for it if most people are going to be underwater financially? Anybody who is sufficiently prepared will surely become the target of redistribution polices of the state. I should probably just enjoy the good times while they last and take a few holidays, or take a less well well-paid job and spend more time with my family.

I am sure this all sounds pretty crazy to everyone. But anybody else there thinking along the same lines?

MumOf2

Intellect will be one of the few tradable commodities remaining. Those broadly in professional occupations will still be in demand. So encourage your children as far as possible to pursue those jobs which require intellectual input - teachers, university academics, solicitors, accountants, engineers, doctors and so on.


MumOf2
x

lisyloo

What about a job designing droids?

Sardo_Numpsa

lisyloo wrote: »

What about a job designing droids?

Yes great job. Obviously not everybody will be able to design droids. It requires certain specialist skills and intellect and the increase in demand for droid designers will not be enough to offset losses across other industries. The idea of automation is that less people are needed to drive the economy, lower costs, more efficient, and of course it frees humans from the drudgery of manual work. Except that in practice you only benefit if you own the droids, unless there is a substantial redistribution of wealth by the state.

I think the crux of this comes down to what affect this will have on attitudes towards property rights.

MumOf2 wrote: »

Intellect will be one of the few tradable commodities remaining. Those broadly in professional occupations will still be in demand. So encourage your children as far as possible to pursue those jobs which require intellectual input - teachers, university academics, solicitors, accountants, engineers, doctors and so on.

I agree, but even these professions will be affected I believe, to a certain extent at least.

michaels

I blame the spinning jennie and those mechanical threshing machines....

Personally I don't think we need to worry as the singularity where machine intelligence surpasses human is likely in the same time frame and then it will just be a question of how many of us they choose to keep as pets or zoo exhibits...see Prof Hawking and many others.

Sardo_Numpsa

michaels wrote: »

I blame the spinning jennie and those mechanical threshing machines....

Personally I don't think we need to worry as the singularity where machine intelligence surpasses human is likely in the same time frame and then it will just be a question of how many of us they choose to keep as pets or zoo exhibits...see Prof Hawking and many others.

Machine intelligence does not need to surpass humans for this to happen. Driver-less cars are not intelligent.

Think about this, early weaving to the Spinning Jenny took 5000 years. 200 years later we have driver-less cars and 3D printing.

Sardo_Numpsa

This is not just about "droids" by the way, it's technology in general.

I work in software in the banking sector. I see this unfolding in two ways.

Software development: teams are getting leaner, an IT project project take far fewer people than it used to. This is because of more advanced development tools but also changes in the way we work, flattening of team structures, team leads and middle managers are being squeezed out, specialists are becoming generalists.

Finance industry: Better systems, integration, standardisation, straight through processing and automation of routine tasks mean that the specialist knowledge of some operations staff is no longer needed. I can only see this accelerating and I can tell you a lot of ops peeps see this coming and they are worried.

This phenomenon fits nicely with the declining wage share since the 60's when companies started to take computing seriously (very well documented)

vivatifosi

Gen has started several not entirely tongue in cheek threads about coming zombie robot apocalypses that are worth reading if this is something you are interested in.

In the years I've been working, I've seen the demise of many jobs, some due to advances in technology (typists for example), others due to changes in the economy/regulation/demand/globaliseation etc, such as coal mining and shipbuilding.

Staying skilled up is a good strategy, as is being willing to work in different fields and flexibility.

I'm a portfolio worker and have several jobs. That way if you lose income from one job you have others you can fall back on. I'm finding this is increasingly common.

The other thing is that new jobs will come along that aren't yet on our radars.

I do think that retaining jobs in the future will be an issue and that there will be more problems to come. However for now, there will still be work in the professions for many years to come... It would be hard to build a robodoctor or judge... but equally in some less well paid roles. Would you want a robot cutting your hair, or as a care assistant in a home?

Having a strategy where you are financially prudent and do as you are doing is rarely going to work out as a bad idea though.

Sardo_Numpsa

Sure, there will be professions which we don't know about yet. But are they going to employee hundreds of thousands of people? I doubt it. The only labour intensive work I can imagine would be mining the asteroid belt or Mars or something of that sort, but even that is likely to be highly automated if we can already land probe on a comet remotely.

Have you got an iPhone? What do you think of Seri (I don't think Seri is intelligent btw)? What do you think it may be capable of in 20 years? You don't think it could replace the best part of a million call centre operators reading responses off of computer screens?

How many people are employed as drivers of various sorts? What are they going to do once self-driving cars which operate 24 hours are cost-effective ? These are serious numbers.

Crop pickers? Have you seen the lettuce picking robot? Works night and day, no breaks, no sickies, doesn't steal any lettuce. Warehouse workers? Seen what's happening at Amazon?

Guys seriously...head....sand.

And yes there will always be a jobs only people can do, but in a society where 70% unemployment rates are the norm, who is going to be convinced that as somebody lucky enough to have a job you are entitled to your lovely home and your healthy bank balance when most people are on the dole?

I predict 35% unemployment and rising in 20 years. I have bookmarked this thread will check back then = )

vivatifosi

I can assure you my head is not in the sand. Google creative destruction. It has been happening for decades.

As for hundreds of thousands of jobs, take web based jobs... these didn't exist 20 years ago but there are a lot now.

And never rule out the cost of technology. I work in a public library. Shelving books is a mundane task, but shelving robots would cost millions to develop and introduce, millions that the public sector doesn't have. But are those jobs safe? Not if the work can be farmed out to willing volunteers, or the library shut.

You are focusing on a narrow remit and the most worrying scenario. Whereas in reality jobs are at risk from many things... globalisation, budget cuts, etc are equally part of the picture.

Nobody knows what is round the corner, all anyone can do is plan the best they can with the resources that the have.

Generali

:wave:Hi Sardo_Numpsa:wave:

Welcome to the boards.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4970049

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4982228

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4947298

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4935090

As you can see, I've started a few threads on this topic. I hope you will find them interesting.