High-end, new-build flats in London.

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

classic pre-burst victory

Like some other people I fail to understand why you are going to buy this year if you are so convinced we are in a bubble which is going to pop in the near future.

tkane

gordon_retundo wrote: »

I can see the mid-term future going a number of ways:
- we move to a continental style of long-term renting being the norm. This will require a seismic cultural shift.

Good post/rant, but some inaccuracies.

The quote above is what will happen and indeed has already happened. On current trends the UK will have more tenants than home owners within the next few years. Most young people now expect to rent for a good while whilst they build up their deposit. It's the older generation that will have a cultural shock but these people already own their homes anyway.

But there is nothing to suggest that a country which predominently rents will be worse off. Prime example being Germany, where the economy is consistently stronger than the UK, productivity is high and social values are also stronger. Our other neighbours France, Switzerland, Denmark etc. also predominantly rent and I wouldn't say they are any worse off than the UK by reason of their renting culture.

Your assumption that rising house prices will kill of the culture of a city is SO WRONG. Look at Hong Kong where prices are astronomical, does that city have no culture? London is not the only city that has seen foreign speculation, it's just a fact of life in a globalised capitalist world. Culture isn't affected by high house prices. That is absurd. People like you will live in London whatever it takes because you want to live there. You will scrimp and save to pay your London rent because that is what you value more than anything else (you said so in your post). But there might come a point where your pay packet just cannot keep up with rising prices - at this point the market will kick in and prices will start to decline so that you can get back in the market. This dynamic will persist UNLESS a shedload of banking and legal jobs are added in the city of London - this is not the case as banking is shrinking and a lot of the legal profession is vulnerable to techonology. London will always need its doctors/nurses/waiters/cleaners and they will always be there no matter what happens to house prices. If they all can't afford to rent in London, rents will simply come down. That is how the market works.

But for me the key aspect you have missed out is the social sector. Do you know how many estates there are in Camden for instance? The council housing stock there is huge. Similarly if you look at Southwark so much of the new builds have gone to council tenants. These people are a big proportion of the overall London population.

In summary, I share your love for London but completely disagree with your concerns about where it is heading.

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

classic pre-burst victory

Says the man intending on buying in London this year.

What's that old saying my old mucker? Of yeah ... 'actions speak louder than words'

padington

tkane wrote: »

Good post/rant, but some inaccuracies.

The quote above is what will happen and indeed has already happened. On current trends the UK will have more tenants than home owners within the next few years. Most young people now expect to rent for a good while whilst they build up their deposit. It's the older generation that will have a cultural shock but these people already own their homes anyway.

But there is nothing to suggest that a country which predominently rents will be worse off. Prime example being Germany, where the economy is consistently stronger than the UK, productivity is high and social values are also stronger. Our other neighbours France, Switzerland, Denmark etc. also predominantly rent and I wouldn't say they are any worse off than the UK by reason of their renting culture.

Your assumption that rising house prices will kill of the culture of a city is SO WRONG. Look at Hong Kong where prices are astronomical, does that city have no culture? London is not the only city that has seen foreign speculation, it's just a fact of life in a globalised capitalist world. Culture isn't affected by high house prices. That is absurd. People like you will live in London whatever it takes because you want to live there. You will scrimp and save to pay your London rent because that is what you value more than anything else (you said so in your post). But there might come a point where your pay packet just cannot keep up with rising prices - at this point the market will kick in and prices will start to decline so that you can get back in the market. This dynamic will persist UNLESS a shedload of banking and legal jobs are added in the city of London - this is not the case as banking is shrinking and a lot of the legal profession is vulnerable to techonology. London will always need its doctors/nurses/waiters/cleaners and they will always be there no matter what happens to house prices. If they all can't afford to rent in London, rents will simply come down. That is how the market works.

But for me the key aspect you have missed out is the social sector. Do you know how many estates there are in Camden for instance? The council housing stock there is huge. Similarly if you look at Southwark so much of the new builds have gone to council tenants. These people are a big proportion of the overall London population.

In summary, I share your love for London but completely disagree with your concerns about where it is heading.

I think you're wrong about culture and in some respects this guy does have a
point about creativity ...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/grayson-perry-london-needs-affordable-housing-because-rich-people-dont-create-culture-9875422.html

I disagree that you need to kill the buoyant free market though, I see that as a brilliant wealth turbine but that wealth must go to create new housing solutions.

The best city has a real diversity, it needs people from all walks of life. A free market with a world leading desirability factor is great but it is also wise to ensure there are housing options for people who's goal it is to do great things other than just make money.

The bit where i depart from labour regarding social housing is to provide social housing for healthy people who have declared that all they have been doing for years is sitting on their !!!!. However the truth is no one really does nothing, almost everyone is hustling somehow. We just need a benefits system that encourages this rather than tries to ban it.

Yes there is lots of social housing still in London, it's one of the many reasons why it's such an awesome place, it's like the bar in Star Wars, everyone is here, let's keep it that way.

tkane

padington wrote: »

I think you're wrong about culture and in some respects this guy does have a
point about creativity ...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/grayson-perry-london-needs-affordable-housing-because-rich-people-dont-create-culture-9875422.html

I disagree that you need to kill the buoyant free market though, I see that as a brilliant wealth turbine but that wealth must go to create new housing solutions.

The best city has a real diversity, it needs people from all walks of life. A free market with a world leading desirability factor is great but it is also wise to ensure there are housing options for people who's goal it is to do great things other than just make money.

The bit where i depart from labour regarding social housing is to provide social housing for healthy people who have declared that all they have been doing for years is sitting on their !!!!. However the truth is no one really does nothing, almost everyone is hustling somehow. We just need a benefits system that encourages this rather than tries to ban it.

Yes there is lots of social housing still in London, it's one of the many reasons why it's such an awesome place, it's like the bar in Star Wars, everyone is here, let's keep it that way.

London has been a pre-eminent city for 2000 years, its current culture and standing as a global city is built on 2000 years of history. I fail to see how 10 years worth of house price increases is gonna kill that culture.

Killerseven

tkane wrote: »

London has been a pre-eminent city for 2000 years, its current culture and standing as a global city is built on 2000 years of history. I fail to see how 10 years worth of house price increases is gonna kill that culture.

Yes London will always be an important city, but that does not detract from the fact that there is more new build luxury flats being added to the supply every year than new people moving into London who can afford them.

tkane

Killerseven wrote: »

Yes London will always be an important city, but that does not detract from the fact that there is more new build luxury flats being added to the supply every year than new people moving into London who can afford them.

Those flats were never aimed at the ordinary working person. Hence why they are marketed overseas first.

padington

tkane wrote: »

London has been a pre-eminent city for 2000 years, its current culture and standing as a global city is built on 2000 years of history. I fail to see how 10 years worth of house price increases is gonna kill that culture.

If creativity isn't linked to need, why were we so creative during the war years and why are very rich people deciding that their children should not inherent their fortune these days ?

Success requires a goldilocks formula and so does London.

antrobus

tkane wrote: »

London has been a pre-eminent city for 2000 years, its current culture and standing as a global city is built on 2000 years of history. I fail to see how 10 years worth of house price increases is gonna kill that culture.

It would be almost 2000 years. The Romans didn't invade until AD43. I'd guess that they founded London sometime soon afterwards. There was certainly something worth sacking in AD 60-61 when good old Boudicca was on the rampage. I'm not sure how "pre-eminent" it was at that time tho', I think Colchester was more important.