Is this teh end of the begining or the begining of the end?

Generali

chucknorris wrote: »

Sorry I can't quite bring myself to thank you for that, I've just checked betfair and labour are currently about 10/11, so it is by no means certain.

Cripes, the odds really have come in. 1.95 to back Lab and 2.08 to back the Tories for most seats. Another coalition is favourite overall by quite some way.

UKIP are going to be the confounding factor here. I know that 'everybody' knows that UKIP will take votes off the Tories but I reckon that they're going to do well in working class areas. Yes, that means 'Mondeo Man' (one for the kids there!) will vote UKIP which will deprive the Tories of votes in the less affluent parts of the SE but those places up North that have voted BNP in numbers before, the hell holes, are also likely to vote in substantial numbers for UKIP.

Whether it wants to be or not, UKIP is the acceptable face of [STRIKE]racism[/STRIKE] [STRIKE]nationalism[/STRIKE] patriotism. Their positioning is amazing. They get the skinhead vote via dog whistle politics and the 'it's all gone to the dogs now of course' vote via their actual policies.

Polling averages at the moment are roughly:

Con 32%
Lab 34%
LD 10% (generously)
UKIP 15%
Assorted space cadets 9%

If most of the UKIP vote is coming from the Tories, let's say 2/3rds, with the rest split evenly between LD and Lab that implies that ex-UKIP the table would read like this:

Con 42%
Lab 37%
LD 12%
UKIP Who they??
Assorted space cadets 9%

And that's being pretty generous to Lab as if you read almost any report, the claim is that UKIP is only a problem for Con. If you lump all the UKIP vote into Con then Con has almost half the votes and wins the election by a landslide, especially given that they have incumbent advantage which is almost always worth a couple of percent on polling day.

My argument fundamentally is that people aren't stupid. If you are a right winger then you really don't want a left wing Government. You can say what you like to a pollster but on election day your pencil will hover and then mark the Tory box. Better the Tories than the bloody Socialists.

So either, IMHO, the Tories are going to win by a landslide as Kippers return to the Tories at the last moment or, more likely, this election is utterly unpredictable as we just don't know who UKIP is taking votes from.

I suspect this time around it's going to come down to who can get the vote out, US style. Vote early, vote often.

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

Cripes, the odds really have come in. 1.95 to back Lab and 2.08 to back the Tories for most seats. Another coalition is favourite overall by quite some way.

Yeah, long way to go though, but labour have lengthened recently, lets just hope that common sense prevails. But just in case it doesn't I'm already thinking about whether I should reduce my money in shares when the market seems high (tricky call).

padington

Odds on the mansion tax doesn't get a look in but how much will the non Dom tax effect prices ?

TickersPlaysPop

If we want to get a better representative election result ....

"None of the above" is needed on the ballot paper...

This gives people a chance to make a true protest vote and not let people's disillusionment open the door to parties like UKIP.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

Cripes, the odds really have come in. 1.95 to back Lab and 2.08 to back the Tories for most seats. Another coalition is favourite overall by quite some way.

UKIP are going to be the confounding factor here. I know that 'everybody' knows that UKIP will take votes off the Tories but I reckon that they're going to do well in working class areas. Yes, that means 'Mondeo Man' (one for the kids there!) will vote UKIP which will deprive the Tories of votes in the less affluent parts of the SE but those places up North that have voted BNP in numbers before, the hell holes, are also likely to vote in substantial numbers for UKIP.

Whether it wants to be or not, UKIP is the acceptable face of [STRIKE]racism[/STRIKE] [STRIKE]nationalism[/STRIKE] patriotism. Their positioning is amazing. They get the skinhead vote via dog whistle politics and the 'it's all gone to the dogs now of course' vote via their actual policies.

Polling averages at the moment are roughly:

Con 32%
Lab 34%
LD 10% (generously)
UKIP 15%
Assorted space cadets 9%

If most of the UKIP vote is coming from the Tories, let's say 2/3rds, with the rest split evenly between LD and Lab that implies that ex-UKIP the table would read like this:

Con 42%
Lab 37%
LD 12%
UKIP Who they??
Assorted space cadets 9%

And that's being pretty generous to Lab as if you read almost any report, the claim is that UKIP is only a problem for Con. If you lump all the UKIP vote into Con then Con has almost half the votes and wins the election by a landslide, especially given that they have incumbent advantage which is almost always worth a couple of percent on polling day.

My argument fundamentally is that people aren't stupid. If you are a right winger then you really don't want a left wing Government. You can say what you like to a pollster but on election day your pencil will hover and then mark the Tory box. Better the Tories than the bloody Socialists.

So either, IMHO, the Tories are going to win by a landslide as Kippers return to the Tories at the last moment or, more likely, this election is utterly unpredictable as we just don't know who UKIP is taking votes from.

I suspect this time around it's going to come down to who can get the vote out, US style. Vote early, vote often.

Just so depressing that the new big name in British politics are a bunch of xenophobic misogynists whose only coherent policies are to ban led lights and be so mean to foreigners they don't want to come here.

Thrugelmir

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Just so depressing that the new big name in British politics are a bunch of xenophobic misogynists whose only coherent policies are to ban led lights and be so mean to foreigners they don't want to come here.

More depressing is the fact that the establishment appears so hopelessly out of touch. After 5 years Labour still have no economic plan. While the Tories flatter to deceive. Having benefited from good fortune rather than tackling the deficit in a meaningful way.

tkane

Generali wrote: »

My argument fundamentally is that people aren't stupid. If you are a right winger then you really don't want a left wing Government. You can say what you like to a pollster but on election day your pencil will hover and then mark the Tory box. Better the Tories than the bloody Socialists.

I actually think UKIP voters are the stage where they don't give a toss what consequences their vote to UKIP might have as long as they have achieved their objective of showing their discontent with Lib/Lab/Con.

I don't think anyone can predict what will happen but my feeling is that a lot of the UKIP vote will hold up at the GE.

If I had to make a prediction I would say another Lib/Con coalition is likely but this one won't last the full 5 years. We will probably have another election quite quickly.

System

Is this teh end of the begining or the begining of the end?

It's teh end of hte ned

TheBlueHorse

why do people always say UKIP are anti immigrant when they always say they are anti -unchecked immigration?

Also they say, why is it acceptable to say no to a nuclear physisist from India, just because he is from India, when we have to accept non-educated farm hands from albania? The UKIP policy is that the current situation is racist. The UK should be able to say - actually we want the Indian physisist, not an Albanian layabout who just happens to be European.

Like many people, I don't think the idea of a union of some kind is a bad one. However, I do feel the way it is done - and the way it is going - is awful.

If we need to come out for a while to force change, then so be it. I don't really go for - you need to be in it, to change it - because at the moment, we aren't changing anything.

The union needs to be tiered and that is the obvious solution. A grade countries - UK, France, Germany, Norway (are they even in it?) etc. free movement everywhere. B grade countries - Italy, Spain, Holland, Belgium etc free movement in B grade countries and below...

lisyloo

not an Albanian layabout who just happens to be European.

Or Europeans with criminal records that we don't get told about.
Surely no-one thinks that is a good idea.