Is There an Economic Case for Leaving the EU?

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

There would be an element of cutting off the nose to spite the face if this was true to any extent.

However, it's certain that the cost of trade in terms of complexity would increase. It's a doddle doing business with European countries and difficult to envisage how it could possibly become easier as a non member.

we would be the same as the rest of the world.
do Japan/ China/Korea/Russia do business with the EU?

Linton

CLAPTON wrote: »

Germany is entering recession : they have prospered on the back of the huge market for German manufactured products in Russia, India, China. These markets are declining and German sales falling.
Now would not be a good time for Germany to lose the UK market.


But there may well be a negative overall decline in both UK exports and imports to the EU : maybe we will benefit from cheaper food imports from the rest of the world without EU tariffs.

So you are going to make a decision that will impact the UK for decades on the basis of a few years volatility in the world economy?

As regards tariffs : They arent costs to the importing country. Any money charged isnt lost, it is just recycled back into the economy. Same as if there was vat charged on the purchase of food. Money which doesnt come from tariffs will come from somewhere else.

CLAPTON

Linton wrote: »

So you are going to make a decision that will impact the UK for decades on the basis of a few years volatility in the world economy?

As regards tariffs : They arent costs to the importing country. Any money charged isnt lost, it is just recycled back into the economy. Same as if there was vat charged on the purchase of food. Money which doesnt come from tariffs will come from somewhere else.

No, the exact opposite


I accept that there will be short term volatility in the UK imports/exports but the expectation is for long term gain. Europe has serious structural problems that are not being addressed and so may not be the best future.


Only a short time ago there was an overwhelming case made for the UK joining the Euro: inside the euro would be the fast track countries with expanding prosperity and outside would be the slow track without influence and a declining economy : it didn't work out quite like that.


Tariffs produce a distortion of trade and in general make for an inefficient market to the detriment of all.
In any event I don't understand your logic : if we can buy food cheaply on the international market rather than expensively from France I see that as a net gain to the UK.

danothy

CLAPTON wrote: »

Only a shirt time ago there was an overwhelming case made for the UK joining the Euro

Clearly there wasn't an "overwhelming case made", or we would have joined it.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

we would be the same as the rest of the world.
do Japan/ China/Korea/Russia do business with the EU?

That is a strawman I'm afraid. I didn't say non-membership of the EU precludes trade with the EU it just makes it more complex and therefore more costly.

Take food. I can order a truck of food from anywhere in the EU and, apart from normal commercial documents, that's the extent of the complication.

Food from countries outside the EU has to be health certificated to prove it's been made to EU standards. The producing country had no say in how those standards were arrived at. The third country officials signing the certificates and approving factories will have to have qualifications from a list determined by the EU. The EU will also send delegations to the country to ensure the third countries aren't just giving the whole thing lip service.

So, yes, Japan & China can do business with the EU but it's more complex and costly than EU country to country trade. It's not plausible to suggest leaving the EU would do anything other than add to the cost of conducting trade with Europe.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

In any event I don't understand your logic : if we can buy food cheaply on the international market rather than expensively from France I see that as a net gain to the UK.

..and those are decisions we are already making. We don't need to leave the EU to stop buying expensive stuff from France.

All that would change is that the products from France would become that little bit more expensive (as would our exports to them). Not much IMO because I don't think the world will end if we leave the EU but sufficient to matter over time.

N1AK

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Exports to EU £10.7 billion

Imports from EU £15.9 billion.

Who needs the trade the most?

Percentage of EU (sans UK) trade with UK vs percentage of UK trade with rest of EU would be a useful statistic if you actually wanted to look at who needed it most, but then you clearly don't so you went with a useless statistic as it's the best you've got to back up your flawed point.

StevieJ

wotsthat wrote: »

So, yes, Japan & China can do business with the EU but it's more complex and costly than EU country to country trade. It's not plausible to suggest leaving the EU would do anything other than add to the cost of conducting trade with Europe.

Doesn't seem to stop them does it? Every piece of crappy plastic I see seems to have 'made in China' stamped on it

N1AK

michaels wrote: »

The EU believes in ever closer union and will gradually require more EU control over economic policy, EU economic policy does not seem like a model the UK should be moving towards at the moment.

Thanks for, I expect, proving Generali's point. There aren't any strong economic arguments in favour of leaving. So even when the debate is framed in those terms Europhobes ignore that and go back to the same old FUD.

Parts of the EU believe in closer union. Clearly other parts don't. We, the British, can play a key part in shaping an EU that allows for closer integration for those who desire it while accommodating those nations that we to retain greater autonomy.

If the EU mandated tomorrow that we must use the euro, subscribe to a european military and transfer our place on the security council to the EU then the British people would vote overwhelmingly for a party that would take us out. What UKIPers like to forget, or can't understand, is that most people's opinion on the EU is based on what it is, not some UKIP dystopian fantasy of what it might become.

jjlandlord

It seems that a few posts have been deleted.

Way to go.