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“Seismic change” is under way which may lead to 20% surge in USD

2

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  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    pertgave wrote: »
    When more exports (from eg China, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Spain etc) go to the UK and the USA than the other way around, then that causes a currency flow in the opposite direction.

    Trade flows are massively swamped by speculative flows.

    FX markets trade ~$5,300,000,000,000 each working day of which there are ~255 in a year. World product (i.e. the world's GDPs all added together) will come to about $72,000,000,000,000 this year, a little over probably, most of which is not traded internationally.
  • purch
    purch Posts: 9,865 Forumite
    When Harold Wilson talked about the "Pound in your Pocket", or shuffly shoes Lamont stood outside the Treasury and announced that we were out of the ERM it wasn't trade flows that caused them to do so.
    'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    purch wrote: »
    When Harold Wilson talked about the "Pound in your Pocket", or shuffly shoes Lamont stood outside the Treasury and announced that we were out of the ERM it wasn't trade flows that caused them to do so.

    It was the Gnomes of Zurich for Wilson or for Champagne Lamont, slightly bizarrely, this woman:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3Kvu6Kgp88
  • worldtraveller
    worldtraveller Posts: 14,013 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    edited 14 November 2014 at 6:32PM
    As far as the UK is concerned, next year, we will see the elections looking tight, as I mentioned in the OP. Also, I can see the whole Scottish independence issue cropping up again, sooner than many people think. The SNP have been riding high since the recent vote and they could well gain many seats in the General Election. This could well lead to significant bargaining power and another early push towards independence. IMHO, all of this uncertainty will, among other factors, drive GBP significantly lower against the USD.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
  • worldtraveller
    worldtraveller Posts: 14,013 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    edited 4 January 2015 at 5:03PM
    High in the USD of USD1.5328/GBP1.00 on the 3rd January.

    With the UK "election effect" uncertainty still to really kick in this year, I'd expect a general continued drift upwards in USD against GBP.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
  • globalds
    globalds Posts: 9,431 Forumite
    So if the USD goes up in value ..Does that make their trillion dollar debt worse or better ?

    I thought it was a fight to the bottom .Doesn't that mean USA just lost ?
  • worldtraveller
    worldtraveller Posts: 14,013 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    edited 23 January 2015 at 10:08AM
    Breached the USD1.50 level in trading today. Highest USD level against GBP since July, 2013.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
  • IronWolf
    IronWolf Posts: 6,445 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Anyone that says they know where currency is going in the future is either a liar or an idiot.
    Faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity.
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    IronWolf wrote: »
    Anyone that says they know where currency is going in the future is either a liar or an idiot.

    I have a lot of faith in all those posters here that bought huge amounts of Swiss francs
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    IronWolf wrote: »
    Anyone that says they know where currency is going in the future is either a liar or an idiot.

    I don't claim to know where currencies are going but I'd be surprised to see the US Dollar fall vs the Euro from here and there is a good chance it will appreciate substantially. Likewise the quid vs the Euro.
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