Economic impact of a Labour win

chewmylegoff

I don't think it will make much difference if labour get into power or not frankly. I assume there will be an amusing set of events about three months in when Balls stabs Miliband in the back and becomes prime minister and then he'll just blither about for a few years pontificating about nothing whilst hoping the economy grows despite his rubbish policies and then shamelessly claim full credit - pretty much like the current government has done.

Thrugelmir

N1AK wrote: »

This is an important point for people to remember. If you reach a balanced budget with 3% economic growth then the debt is decreasing is relative size by 3% a year. Consider it like borrowing £1,000 in 1980 and paying the interest off so you still owe £1,000 now then although you owe the same amount the debt is relatively far smaller when put next to your income etc.

Where's 3% growth going to come from? Credit boom is well and truly over. Growth has to come from productivity i.e. creating wealth. Not consumer spending.

Masomnia

I doubt it'll make much difference. Even now in the run-up to the election when they don't have to worry too much about actually seeing things through they're not proposing anything too radical. Lots of tinkering.

The economy is ticking along ok, and they won't do much to upset it.

Stuff like freezing energy bills could be damaging (though it looks like suppliers have priced it in), but it's not going to knacker everything.

Generali

N1AK wrote: »

Getting rid of it entirely would be a major help. Getting rid of it for 3rd+ children would be a far smaller help aimed at punishing those whose decisions differ from a societal norm.

Child benefit was originally created to help large families, not children in general. Why it is right for someone who has children they can't afford to get benefit for the first 2, but for someone who could then hits hard times not to get support for the 3rd is something I've never heard rationally explained.

Not true. Family Allowance was introduced to provide women with children with an income if their husbands failed to provide for them. It's a ridiculous anachronism.

Generali

Mto_the_heartasomnia wrote: »

I doubt it'll make much difference. Eveis now in the run-up to the election when they don't have to worry too much about actually seeing things through they're not proposing anything too radical. Lots of tinkering.

The economy is ticking along ok, and they won't do much to upset it.

Stuff like freezing energy bills could be damaging (though it looks like suppliers have priced it in), but it's not going to knacker everything.

You got to the heart of it really. The best way to get rid of the deficit is to fix the economy.

padington

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Where's 3% growth going to come from? Credit boom is well and truly over. Growth has to come from productivity i.e. creating wealth. Not consumer spending.

The credit boom is back if you ask my letter box. I'm getting the 'have a new car now, here's a loan' letters like its 2006 all over again.

purch

Generali wrote: »

It's a ridiculous anachronism.

Apparently it's all due to the warm weather :eek:

James_B.

Cyberman60 wrote: »

Stopping child benefit after the first two kids would be a major help.

I'd favour doubling it for the first child, and then paying zero for subsequent ones.


This way you remove 100% of the incentive for people to keep having extra ones that they can't afford.

Generali

princeofpounds wrote: »

Agree, although I would say they are the only government willing to do it, rather than capable.



That's why I said 'almost'. And included caveats about the hidden debts. This year the deficit is likely to be about 5.8% of GDP, which is still way too high, yes, but at least we have some growth now too, so the debt burden is not spiralling in the way it once was.

Do you know if the 5.8% includes the Gilt Coupons (interest) that will be remitted back from the BoE to the Government? I suspect that's a significant sum of money, far from trivial.

chewmylegoff

purch wrote: »

Apparently it's all due to the warm weather :eek:

You should win some kind of award for that!