Mortgage Lending Rising Again

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i only converted to the HPCism in april of this year when it became obvious they we're in a bubble. a rather large one at that

What does convert mean? You sold up in April?

Bubble_and_Squeak

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Who is "they we're" the only place that's looking speculative to me is down south. I'm oop North where house prices are very affordable.

If one chooses to live in the Capital of a thriving, cultural and employment hotspot, one should be prepared to pay an adequate premium.... Best of luck though.

sorry, typo
i meant we are in a bubble
sorry again, i should've said london is in a bubble
i'm sure the fall out from the pop will have implications for you lot north of the watford gap though

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

What does convert mean? You sold up in April?

haha no!
even if i had an overpriced property i wouldn't be brave enough to call the market in a sell to rent game
until april i was actively looking to buy
but when the price of a crumby victorian terrace in tottenham jumped from £270k to £400k in the space of 6 months i thought BUBBLE!

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Until August builders were selling off plan? No site sales offices or show homes? They just rolled out the plans and everyone formed an orderly queue?

the queue was NOT orderly!

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

haha no!
even if i had an overpriced property i wouldn't be brave enough to call the market in a sell to rent game
until april i was actively looking to buy
but when the price of a crumby victorian terrace in tottenham jumped from £270k to £400k in the space of 6 months i thought BUBBLE!

Well, I certainly wouldn't argue that HPI of 20%per annum is sustainable, but there has been a lot of pent up demand, people stopped buying after the crash, now we've seen some of that demand unleashed, people are rightly wary of these massive price spikes.... but this is what happens when demand is great, supply is short and funding reverts to a semblance of normality.

Jason74

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Well, I certainly wouldn't argue that HPI of 20%per annum is sustainable, but there has been a lot of pent up demand, people stopped buying after the crash, now we've seen some of that demand unleashed, people are rightly wary of these massive price spikes.... but this is what happens when demand is great, supply is short and funding reverts to a semblance of normality.

This is all true imho in respect of the London market (which is all this post talks about). The pent up demand was unleashed, has now imho been largely exhausted in the short term, and the market has now realised it's overshot a little as the initial frenzy burns itself out.


Prices are now likely to fall back a little as a result, and it's perfectly natural that the areas with the biggest gains in recent Months will now experience the biggest blips. This process is very much underway, obvious, and widely reported by a number of reputable sources. To pretend it isn't happening, or dismiss it as purely seasonal would be rather silly.


But imho, it's a long way from being the start of a big crash. Many of the factors that caused the big rises are still there, and there's currently no trigger for a major crash (albeit there are several potential triggers out there, and in the unlikely event that one goes off, all bets are off given the sheer cost of London property). We'll probably see a slight softening of prices for a while, before the market returns to a more moderate upward momentum, imho probably next spring / summer.

Bubble_and_Squeak

Jason74 wrote: »

This is all true imho in respect of the London market (which is all this post talks about). The pent up demand was unleashed, has now imho been largely exhausted in the short term, and the market has now realised it's overshot a little as the initial frenzy burns itself out.


Prices are now likely to fall back a little as a result, and it's perfectly natural that the areas with the biggest gains in recent Months will now experience the biggest blips. This process is very much underway, obvious, and widely reported by a number of reputable sources. To pretend it isn't happening, or dismiss it as purely seasonal would be rather silly.


But imho, it's a long way from being the start of a big crash. Many of the factors that caused the big rises are still there, and there's currently no trigger for a major crash (albeit there are several potential triggers out there, and in the unlikely event that one goes off, all bets are off given the sheer cost of London property). We'll probably see a slight softening of prices for a while, before the market returns to a more moderate upward momentum, imho probably next spring / summer.

i would say that there are now more factors pointing to downward pressure on prices than up. prime london is falling in real terms, funding for lending is winding down, sentiment has changed, houses taking longer to sell, supply has been increasing steadily since december.
the only things supporting the market are unnaturally low interest rates and help to buy.
markets have a tendency to overreact. no one would have predicted a victorian terrace in a lame part of walthamstow could sell for £470k. it can easily overshoot in the opposite direction

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i would say that there are now more factors pointing to downward pressure on prices than up. prime london is falling in real terms, funding for lending is winding down, sentiment has changed, houses taking longer to sell, supply has been increasing steadily since december.
the only things supporting the market are unnaturally low interest rates and help to buy.
markets have a tendency to overreact. no one would have predicted a victorian terrace in a lame part of walthamstow could sell for £470k. it can easily overshoot in the opposite direction

Housing supply is inelastic. Supply was way down and the economy picked up quite quickly - that demand hit a lack of supply and prices shot up (in London). In the normal way of things supply increases bringing things closer to balance. As you say supply has been steadily increasing since December.

With more transactions the market is better able to find the correct price. Doesn't mean prices won't fall but there's less likelihood of another year of booming prices and also less likelihood of a crash.

I think watching a few Rightmove prices on a daily basis, noting that vendors have reduced a price and assuming selling prices are falling is mental. London might be more volatile (it's a world city) but even so houses are illiquid and it's pointless trying to think they can be traded like shares.

Bubble_and_Squeak

YEYS!
5.9% DOWN in london!
THIRD straight month of decline!
coming straight after bout of double digit growth
told you!
and you thought mortgage lending rising, suckering naive first time buyers into a lifetime of debt would save the market?
this ship is SINKING!

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

YEYS!
5.9% DOWN in london!
THIRD straight month of decline!
coming straight after bout of double digit growth
told you!
and you thought mortgage lending rising, suckering naive first time buyers into a lifetime of debt would save the market?
this ship is SINKING!

Asking price...

Sold prices haven't fallen once this year despite it being very common this time of year for both asking and selling prices to fall. After last year it is going to take a breather. If you look historically this has always been the case. We still have a lot of people and not enough houses. Every year this shortfall gets worse.