Interest rate warning

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

It doesn't seem that the link is broken at all and the article even says that wages will rise shortly.

Vast majority of people now work in service industries. No skills shortage in these.

PasturesNew

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Vast majority of people now work in service industries. No skills shortage in these.

There was a piece on the news this morning, some Mandarin-speaking recruitment bloke was there ... he said mandarin as a 2nd language is increasingly desirable ....

The trouble with these "skills shortages" we're constantly told about is that we're never told which skills, and where. Maybe I've got a skill that's in shortage just 10 miles away, or 300 miles .... we'll never actually be told what these skills shortages are, so we can't see whether we could declare our knowledge, or refresh past skills to match.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

And on the topic of bank margins reducing as base rates rise.....

Seems some other people with more than a little inside information think exactly the same thing....

The reason we would raise interest rates, certainly back to the levels they were at, would be in the context of a much stronger economy, which you would imagine would have unemployment, if anything, falling rather than rising, and in those circumstances there would be some offsetting factors.

It should also be the case—and I think this is very important—that the interest rates that borrowers themselves face would not rise as sharply as the increase in bank rate.

After all, when we cut bank rate, bank rate fell by much more than the actual interest rates that borrowers were paying fell. The spreads between the rates that banks were charging to their borrowers and bank rate went up a great deal, and I think that along the path of an increase in bank rate, which inevitably will come at some point from where we are now back to more normal levels, that is going to be accompanied by a process in which the spread between the rates that banks charge their borrowers and bank rate would not go back to the very low levels that they were, but would undoubtedly narrow.

Sir Mervyn King
Governor
Bank of England

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

PasturesNew wrote: »

The trouble with these "skills shortages" we're constantly told about is that we're never told which skills,

Here you go....

Worsening shortages of skills may stop UK businesses from taking advantage of the economic recovery, research says.

In a survey of 91,000 employers, the UK Commission for Employment and Skills found more than one in five vacancies were down to a poor skills base.

The UKCES found 146,200 job vacancies (22%) last year were unfilled because of inadequate skills, compared with 91,400 (16%) two years earlier.

The warning comes as the UK economy is reported to show signs of recovery.

On Tuesday, figures released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK economy grew by 1.9% in 2013, its strongest rate since 2007.

The UKCES report - Skills for Sustainable Recovery - found there were 655,000 vacancies in the UK between March and July 2013, up from 586,500 in 2011.

It suggests that the problem of inadequate skills, qualifications or experience in the workforce is hitting some industries harder than others, with more skills shortages found in areas such as manufacturing, construction and plumbing, as well as in health and social care.

The study said employers struggled to find employees with the "core generic skills" of communication, literacy and numeracy.

The report said: "There has been an increase in the proportion of skill-shortage vacancies resulting from a lack of communication skills, particularly oral communication (41%, up from 37% in 2011), as well as a lack of literacy (34% up from 28% in 2011) and numeracy skills (26%, up from 24%)."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-25945413

And it seems to be getting worse....

Vacancies in 2013 because of inadequate skills

UK: 146,200 (22% of vacancies)

England: 124,800 (22% of vacancies)

Scotland: 13,400 (25% of vacancies)

Wales: 5,100 (20% of vacancies)

Northern Ireland: 2,900 (19% of vacancies)


Vacancies in 2011 because of inadequate skills

UK: 91,400 (16% of vacancies)

England: 76,900 (15% of vacancies)

Scotland: 6,700 (15% of vacancies)

Wales: 4,000 (18% of vacancies)

Northern Ireland: 3,900 (21% of vacancies)


The government also publishes a list of skill shortages that are eligible for visas for workers outside the EU, it can be found here....

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/308513/shortageoccupationlistapril14.pdf

Quite interesting... Everything from high voltage electrical cable linesmen, to radiographers, to 3D computer animation artists, to ballet dancers.

Graham_Devon

Hamish, the BOE and it's members have said many things. I have been caught out myself. It's why I posted my last thread regarding Carney as "he says some things" as it seems futile to take too much notice.

Just in the last 12m along weve had forward guidance version 1, version 2....then version 2 scrapped and a bit more "forward guidance that banks will keep rates low" and then a panic statement on one day from Vince Cable and George Osborne regarding bank lending, with Carney following up later stating rate rises are closer than we all think and a statement from the BOE stating they are "surprised that everyone else is surprised".

The BOE at the moment are saying a lot about a lot. Wouldn't take too much notice, they've said loads over the past few years which hasn't worked out as instended.

I'm not blaming them, I'm not saying I could do any better, but what I am saying is that relying on what they have said seems a little pointless. Things change, and change quickly and they say something else. We might one day, see them actually do something, but they are still talking about the talk about doing something.

Thrugelmir

PasturesNew wrote: »

The trouble with these "skills shortages" we're constantly told about is that we're never told which skills, and where. Maybe I've got a skill that's in shortage just 10 miles away, or 300 miles .... we'll never actually be told what these skills shortages are, so we can't see whether we could declare our knowledge, or refresh past skills to match.

Average age of an "engineer" is reckoned to be about 55. Years of a lack of vocational training have left a huge gap. Simply not enough people pursuing a career in dirty industries.

Far easier to be a banker or property investor. Than spend the years required to learn a real trade.

CLAPTON

skills can be learned

and plenty staff will emerge for well paid jobs.

whenever you hear some-one bleating on about lack of skilled staff just ask

-what are they paying?
-what training do they offer?

Bantex_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Here you go....


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-25945413

And it seems to be getting worse....

Vacancies in 2013 because of inadequate skills

UK: 146,200 (22% of vacancies)

England: 124,800 (22% of vacancies)

Scotland: 13,400 (25% of vacancies)

Wales: 5,100 (20% of vacancies)

Northern Ireland: 2,900 (19% of vacancies)


Vacancies in 2011 because of inadequate skills

UK: 91,400 (16% of vacancies)

England: 76,900 (15% of vacancies)

Scotland: 6,700 (15% of vacancies)

Wales: 4,000 (18% of vacancies)

Northern Ireland: 3,900 (21% of vacancies)


The government also publishes a list of skill shortages that are eligible for visas for workers outside the EU, it can be found here....

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/308513/shortageoccupationlistapril14.pdf

Quite interesting... Everything from high voltage electrical cable linesmen, to radiographers, to 3D computer animation artists, to ballet dancers.

So we import millions of low skilled migrants.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Bantex wrote: »

So we import millions of low skilled migrants.

Good thing too, otherwise the skills shortage would be even worse.:)

Thrugelmir

Bantex wrote: »

So we import millions of low skilled migrants.

Plenty of jobs that locals don't want to do.