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When will the BOE first raise base rate?
Thrugelmir
Posts: 89,546 Forumite
What's the concensus view?
Which month will BOE base rise first? 38 votes
August
10%
4 votes
September
13%
5 votes
October
23%
9 votes
November
31%
12 votes
December
21%
8 votes
0
Comments
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October or November0
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NovemberNovember probably. Then 0.25% every 4-6 months after that.0
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2015....................0
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No idea. But interested to see what the rest of you think. So thanks.
When the base rate does go up, how much and how quickly do you think it will affect mortgage and savings rates?Do you know anyone who's bereaved? Point them to https://www.AtaLoss.org which does for bereavement support what MSE does for financial services, providing links to support organisations relevant to the circumstances of the loss & the local area. (Link permitted by forum team)
Tyre performance in the wet deteriorates rapidly below about 3mm tread - change yours when they get dangerous, not just when they are nearly illegal (1.6mm).
Oh, and wear your seatbelt. My kids are only alive because they were wearing theirs when somebody else was driving in wet weather with worn tyres.0 -
Carney seems to be talking it up so he doesn't have to actually raise rates.
I'd still say it's odds on for 2015.
Recovery would have to be unexpectedly strong over the next 6 months to warrant raising rates by year end.
Be a good thing if it was mind you...“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
When the base rate does go up, how much and how quickly do you think it will affect mortgage and savings rates?
Tiny increments over several years.
Will have almost no effect on either.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
No idea. But interested to see what the rest of you think. So thanks.
When the base rate does go up, how much and how quickly do you think it will affect mortgage and savings rates?
If the base rate goes up 25bps (1 basis point = 0.01%) then I'd expect market rates to go up 15-20bps.
The great imponderable is what happens when QE ends.0 -
I imagine the pound is going to keep getting stronger. Could be a good time to sell up and move abroad in a few years.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0
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Earlier this week I would have said around March 2015 but BoE Governors choose their words carefully - I took what he said as a clear indication that the date is moving closer.
I can't really see what change in behaviour he would be trying to achieve based on a changing rates just a few months earlier so I think they mean business.
Gone for November so they can avoid Scrooge type headlines in December.
But 0.25% in November 2014 or March 2015 - practically makes little difference doesn't it?0 -
Earlier this week I would have said around March 2015 but BoE Governors choose their words carefully - I took what he said as a clear indication that the date is moving closer.
I can't really see what change in behaviour he would be trying to achieve based on a changing rates just a few months earlier so I think they mean business.
Gone for November so they can avoid Scrooge type headlines in December.
But 0.25% in November 2014 or March 2015 - practically makes little difference doesn't it?
It's a good point. When does a rise become meaningful? At 1% or 2%. What about 4%? These are all still historic lows for interest rates. A base rate of 4-5% should be seen as normal if inflation targeting works being inflation plus 1-2%.
Are those very high rates these days? If so, what changed? (I'm not getting at you BTW, just wondering).
If pay rises start getting out of control and inflation looks like rising perhaps inflation plus 3% is needed. 7-8% perhaps. That looks crazy right now but is definitely within the possible range.0
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