UK unemployment total falls (April)

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

Right.

Perhaps I'm being thick but I don't get your point. There is loads of evidence out there about the Laffer curve and how different variables change its shape. A single post about a changed time point in a bonus payment demonstrates........?

after the tax rate changed to 50% it was noted that there was a reduction is income tax collected from higher rate payers.

some people thought this proved the laffer turning point was therefore somewhere between 40% and 50% tax rate

other people thought that the smart people had simply brought forward their bonus (and any other income) to avoid the 50% tax ... the government had thoughtfully given a years notice of the change


again when the rate was cut from 50% to 45% the reverse effect was noted.


again some claimed that showed the Laffer turning point was therefore below 50%
other said that bonuses were delayed and that explained the difference in tax take

again plenty of notice was given of the change

my own view is the it shows nothing about the Laffer turning point

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

But wage growth has slowed to just 0.7%. Whether this is related to the quality of the new jobs would be interesting.

Profitability is being squeezed.

Public sector is still pressing down on wage increases.

Thrugelmir

Bantex wrote: »

Yet government spending still seems to be increasing.

Much Government spending is linked to inflation not average wage increases.

michaels

Generali wrote: »

I suspect we cross posted. I followed a link from the BBC and didn't check the header. D'oh.

It's certainly very good news for the British as well as being very good news for the Tories. As Bill Clinton once repeatedly said, "It's the economy, stupid!"

Or is the better parallel the wonderful economic conditions the major govt bequeathed bliar and clown in 1997 leading to 13 years of expansion of the state under labour :eek:

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

the issue about bonuses is, that at the end of tax year 2012-13 bonuses were delayed until after april 6th as the tax rate then fell from 50% to 45%.

so the figures for year 2012-13 were distorted (i.e artificially lower that 'normal') and the figures for 2013-14 were artificially higher)

Peston not only agrees he makes the following comment....

This was particularly conspicuous in the finance sector (hello you lovely bankers) - where total pay rose 5.6% in April 2013 and fell 6.1% in April 2014.

jamesmorgan

Overall, the figures are good news, but I don't think we should get carried away with assuming that wage growth will follow quickly.

Anecdotal evidence from a local employer (warehouse distribution centre for a major UK retailer) is that they are struggling to find enough local employees. Most of their new recruits are now sourced directly from Poland. One young guy who started this week says that there are very few jobs in Poland and this job pays 3x local ones in Poland. When considering the impact of increased employment on wage demand we need to bear in mind that the resource pool is now anyone within the EU. There is still high unemployment in many EU countries (and lower wages). Until this pool is used up, there will be little upward pressure on wages. Interestingly he feels that many Poles move to the UK as much for the relaxed lifestyle/culture as the money. The only bad thing seems to be the weather!

michaels

Slightly OT, anyone notice on the bbc news website this is a 'small headline' with much less prominence than for example delays in processing benefits claimants - imagine now how much prominence it would have had, had unemployment been up by the same ammount. Just saying

dktreesea

Masomnia wrote: »

June 2014

These ones are even better. Apart from the wages thing.

Thanks for posting this. In spite of the general improvement in the economy, I did notice a couple of things that didn't sound too good. Given the economy is improving, 120,000 redundancies in the quarter makes me think maybe not all sectors of the economy are improving.

The other thing that I found a bit depressing was the 1 million+ over 65's who were still working. That's sad, when people who should be able to enjoy their retirement without working either don't want to give up work or can't afford to.

BobQ

dktreesea wrote: »

Thanks for posting this. In spite of the general improvement in the economy, I did notice a couple of things that didn't sound too good. Given the economy is improving, 120,000 redundancies in the quarter makes me think maybe not all sectors of the economy are improving.

The other thing that I found a bit depressing was the 1 million+ over 65's who were still working. That's sad, when people who should be able to enjoy their retirement without working either don't want to give up work or can't afford to.

AS with any fragile recoveries there are sectors that have genuine growth and others that are still stagnant.

The figures are encouraging but there does seem to be a lot more self employed and unpaid family jobs added this month. Vacancies are also up particularly for small employers.

tomterm8

BobQ wrote: »

AS with any fragile recoveries there are sectors that have genuine growth and others that are still stagnant.

It doesn't look like a fragile recovery at this point to me... it looks like a well established recovery. This is the point where I support public sector spending cuts...