How to hedge against the financial risks of Scottish Independence?

Generali

Clifford_Pope wrote: »

.
Investing in single malts is probably the only realistic hedge.

The great thing about investing in single malts is that you can avoid selling costs while realising their value by simply drinking them.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

The great thing about investing in single malts is that you can avoid selling costs while realising their value by simply drinking them.

that's interesting

if I drink a single malt that has appreciated in price; does drinking it count as a disposal for cgt purposes?

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It seems pretty clear that there are two possible outcomes to the Scottish Referendum....

It seems clear from your perspective and opinion, however certainly nothing is entirely clear and the consequences quite possibly will not be as you described.

As an example, the SNP believe the Scots will be £1000 better off, whilst the bettertogether campaign believe they will be £1400 worse off.

I tend to think that the likelihood is somewhere in between, possibly even a neutral point in which it is potentially negligible when considering the benefits gained by being independent

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So for an ordinary person just now, how best to hedge against the risks?

Sell property and park the funds in England for 6 months? Maybe.... but realistically it would be difficult to buy back in quickly enough to not miss the immediate bounce in economic activity and asset values in the event of a No vote.

Borrow against property and park the funds in England? Possibly... If you were to do it, now is the time, as it would be virtually impossible to borrow in the immediate aftermath of a Yes vote.

Move savings and pensions out of Scottish institutions? Definitely.... already done that.

What else?

You seem to be forgetting that despite you citing a 6 month period, there will be an 18 month negotiation before independence is fully gained.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

Well you could simply have a bet on the Yes mob winning

Keep referring (incorrectly) to Pro-Independence voters being a mob.
It's that sort of mentality that alienates the people of Scotland from the UK

Generali wrote: »

although that might be expensive.

And it may be a saving.
There are different reports citing the expected consequences ranging from positive and negative financial impact

Generali wrote: »

The hardest bit will be to calculate your losses should independence go ahead.

Is it equally hard to calculate the gains should independence go ahead?

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I rather suspect in the event of a Yes vote it'd be virtually impossible for Scots to sell a house or get a mortgage until the currency issue is decided. And perhaps not even for many years after that depending on the outcome...

Is this in the scaremongering manifesto?

IveSeenTheLight

Clifford_Pope wrote: »

There are of course other outcomes which have not been discussed.

3. They vote No, which is followed by rioting in Scotland, demonstrations outside the naval base, vandalism of English-owned property and businesses, and SNP vows to continue the campaign

4. They vote Yes, which is followed by a burst of euphoria. The launch of the Scottish stock exchange heralds a boom in shares, property values, investment, jobs, etc. It even stops raining.
Ex-pat Scots flood back home, further stimulating the economy. Immigration is good for an economy, remember.

It's very interesting how you can assess someones position on a topic with how they write their "balanced" response.

Both of these are unrealistic in my opinion.

There will not be rioting at Naval yards or the damaging of English owners properties

Neither will there be a change in weather or the mass repatriation of exiled Scots. This is not why they are abroad.

Clifford_Pope wrote: »

5. Close result, insufficient majority, everyone exhausted and tired of the whole business. Salmond retires, Scotland sinks into lethargy and carries on drinking.


There are probably other possible outcomes .
Investing in single malts is probably the only realistic hedge.

This is the most realistic outcome

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Keep referring (incorrectly) to Pro-Independence voters being a mob.
It's that sort of mentality that alienates the people of Scotland from the UK



And it may be a saving.
There are different reports citing the expected consequences ranging from positive and negative financial impact



Is it equally hard to calculate the gains should independence go ahead?

You really do take this stuff personally. 'Mob' isn't an insult in this context where I'm from or live or have ever lived. I sent an email to a group of friends today explaining where my cancer treatment is and wished them well for them and their mob.

The OP was after some specific advice regarding an investment viewpoint. If you wanted advice as to how to hedge against a No given some assumptions I would be equally happy to help. I might even refer to the No mob.

The combination of aggression and being thin skinned is particularly annoying.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

You really do take this stuff personally. 'Mob' isn't an insult in this context where I'm from or live or have ever lived. I sent an email to a group of friends today explaining where my cancer treatment is and wished them well for them and their mob.

I can understand this explanation.

It's interesting that I can't recall you referring to the bettertogether campaign as a mob previously.

I hope you can equally understand that in Scotland, mobbing is a reference to a group of people engaging in disorderly and criminal behaviour and therefore a derogatory term

Under the law of Scotland, mobbing, also known as mobbing and rioting, is the formation of a mob engaged in disorderly and criminal behaviour. The crime occurs when a group combines to the alarm of the public "for an illegal purpose, or in order to carry out a legal purpose by illegal means, e.g. violence or intimidation".[1] This common purpose distinguishes it from a breach of the peace.

Generali wrote: »

The combination of aggression and being thin skinned is particularly annoying.

My apologies, I can't recall where I have been aggressive and never intended my responses to be taken in such a way.

With regards to being thin skinned, I'm not particularly perplexed at all.
I simply was pointing out your post had a tinge of bias (in my opinion) and not a balanced response.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I can understand this explanation.

It's interesting that I can't recall you referring to the bettertogether campaign as a mob previously.

I'm not sure I've described Yes! as a mob either previously. Not egregiously anyway.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I hope you can equally understand that in Scotland, mobbing is a reference to a group of people engaging in disorderly and criminal behaviour and therefore a derogatory term

The Mob in England and Australia has two meanings. A group like a lynch mob who disregard the law and destroy property/people for their own ends and then a group of people referred to in an affectionate manner. In Aus there would be an implied reference to a larakin group.

I apologise if I have used a term in a culturally inappropriate manner, I meant no insult.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

My apologies, I can't recall where I have been aggressive and never intended my responses to be taken in such a way.

With regards to being thin skinned, I'm not particularly perplexed at all.

I think we have been divided by a common language on this occasion. I propose that we accept each others' apologies and move on.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I simply was pointing out your post had a tinge of bias (in my opinion) and not a balanced response.

I have a viewpoint but when asked for an investment idea I always try to look at it as I have been taught from my work: how do we make money from this (there is an old Warren Buffet line, "Our job is to make money not to be right").

If you want advice on how to make money from a Yes! vote given a set of assumptions I'd be happy to suggest some. If you tell me what positives you think would accrue from Scottish independence I'd be happy to suggest some investment opportunities.

I tell you what, I'll start a thread to stimulate ideas.