HPI Warnings Everywhere!!!!!

cells

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Over on hpc.co.uk they are furious about this. They are voting UKIP for radical change. They seem to think Nigel Farage will be the friend of the renter.

Little under 65% own
little under 20% rent social and dont care

little over 15% rent of which half don't care as they are transients

so for now. No one gives a crap about private renters are they are a minority of less than 10%

But things are changing fast. Over quarter of a million homes convert to provate renters each year now. In ten years time that will mean 3 milliom more homes as renters with some 5 million more renter voters.

The scale is moving but moving slowly

cells

Bantex wrote: »

When people talk about "making the right decisions" and "positioning themselves", I would suggest that around 50% of the population are now not in a position to do either due to high prices.

Is that really a good situation despite the overwhelming smugness of some posters ( who mainly got "on the ladder" when prices where much much lower than now?

Most the bulls are suggesting that the problem is too few homes and that they would not object and would probably support more building.

So they are giving the renters the solution and are on their sides.

Ironically the biggest challenge to renters is renters who seem to place building more very low on their lost of solutions to help. Instead they come up with all manner of ridiculous ideas that will not work and would often make things worse for them.

this attitude of 'lets try everything else first' before we built more homes in solving a shortgage of homes is one of the main culprits

N1AK

Bantex wrote: »

When people talk about "making the right decisions" and "positioning themselves", I would suggest that around 50% of the population are now not in a position to do either due to high prices.

A large part of the population has already bought property or are children so I find the 50% figure unlikely. For the rest, if they agree that property is likely to increase in value swiftly, there are options to invest in property including, but not limited to, buying one.

Hamish and I have pretty diverse views on what rapidly increasing house prices mean, but we're pretty much in complete agreement about the cause of increasing prices and the likelihood of it continuing for years.

N1AK

cells wrote: »

Ironically the biggest challenge to renters is renters who seem to place building more very low on their lost of solutions to help. Instead they come up with all manner of ridiculous ideas that will

There aren't that many renters, especially not ones in a position where their ability to buy varies based on house prices falling by a small amount and who are interested in buying now.

The issue is that building more houses is a long term solution. If you want to buy now, then building more houses over the next decade won't help you do that. People who aren't looking to buy now, but might in the future generally have more pressing concerns or are too young to have voted in the previous election anyway.

cells

N1AK wrote: »

There aren't that many renters, especially not ones in a position where their ability to buy varies based on house prices falling by a small amount and who are interested in buying now.

The issue is that building more houses is a long term solution. If you want to buy now, then building more houses over the next decade won't help you do that. People who aren't looking to buy now, but might in the future generally have more pressing concerns or are too young to have voted in the previous election anyway.

So what yoy are saying is that the build ratebis irrelevant now and in the mid term and will only have an impact 10+ years down the line?

I don't think so

in the uk sales are about 1 million a year
If the build rate jumoed by 300k a year sales would go towards 1.3m a year
so overall yearly supply will be 30% higher

That is not an insignificant amount of additional supply.

It would have an impact as soon as build rates go to what is needed (400-500k a year)

The impact would nit be cheaper homes or a house price crash.
the impact would be lower house price inflation
we are headed back to 10-20% hpi whereas of build rates were closer to french levels we would be heading towards 5-10% hpi


another factor is that if the build rate was 300k higher the proportion of OO buyers vs BTLers would change to a more normal level. During the last upswing 1995-2005 BTLers did nit add many net purchases. The figure was from negative (ie net sellers) to a small net positive of tens of thousands

since 2006-now net BTL has surged to around 300k units a year
this means the private rwntal sectir rapidly grew from 10% to nearly 20% of the housing stock today. If this doesn't stop qithin 10 years we will be at 30% private renters. Ten years after that it will be 40% private renters (OO would fall to 45% if PR grew to 40%)

cells

What is going to happen to normal buyers when income muktiples are not enough

its one thing to push/subsidise 5% down mortgages but that won't help you buy a £300k house if you have an income of £30k as no bank will lend 10x mortgages even if you have the £15k deposit


will the next phase of this 'bubble' see more and more BTL buyers instead of FTB??
I think this id what is going to happen

BTLers imo could grow to be HALF the market (ie buying 500k homes a year)

What are the consequences of that?