The Coming Robot Apocalypse of Car Insurers

System

Conrad wrote: »

Could a computer tell a sheep from a small fog patch in a dip? Would it slam on the brakes as it approached and thus cause the car behind to smash into my rear?

Could it distinguish a dog running out into the road, and a child?
ie decide to run over the dog, in order to avoid a possible accident, but do an emergency stop for the child?

The first time a robot gets it wrong, and decides to mow down a child, will kill the idea as well, so they had better be good.
Human error can be forgiven.

N1AK

Clifford_Pope wrote: »

The first time a robot gets it wrong, and decides to mow down a child, will kill the idea as well, so they had better be good.
Human error can be forgiven.

It'll kill it in some backwards thinking countries/regions, then they'll look on longingly at the crash statistics for places where autonomous cars are allowed and change their minds.

People are pretty irrational at times but give them the choice of a 90% decrease in road deaths based on a real life implementation and they'll put up and shut up.

grizzly1911

cells wrote: »

Yep self drive vehicles will reduce the nation's insurance burden from its current circa £15B a year to maybe just £1B a year.

cells wrote: »

There will be a bare minimum of £50B a year saved which will be spent elsewhere. That money is enough to create 2 million jobs at an average pay of £25k pa so there will be lots of new jobs to more than offset the lost ones.

Any money "saved" in insurance premiums will simply be hoovered up and more in the cost of the product in the first place. Added to which governments will need to licence or levy duty in some way.

Yes lots of average paid jobs have been created as a result of automation and computerisation. Lots of "NMW" roles and sefrdom perhaps.

grizzly1911

Just think they will be able to navigate and levitate over potholes so think of the money to be saved in maintenance too.

Put some new tyres on last week, days later I had to drive through three, wheel swallowing potholes, one of which grounded the car. I wouldn't mind but they were on a one way, single track road in the control of the National Truss who had just taxed me £4 to park for two hours in a tourist honey spot.

Percy1983

Conrad wrote: »

Could a computer tell a sheep from a small fog patch in a dip? Would it slam on the brakes as it approached and thus cause the car behind to smash into my rear?


Would it notice a big board of plywood about to blow off that lorry 50 metres in front of you on the motorway?

Surely the car will be far enough behind for the speed and be able to stop safely.

We do already see cheaper insurance with safety features as I know my car has a lower group due to it have stability control, good job I can switch it off when on a track as it is a bit of a kill joy.

As for driverless cars, I am not sold on them... yet.

noodle_doodle

N1AK wrote: »

It'll kill it in some backwards thinking countries/regions, then they'll look on longingly at the crash statistics for places where autonomous cars are allowed and change their minds.

People are pretty irrational at times but give them the choice of a 90% decrease in road deaths based on a real life implementation and they'll put up and shut up.

ah but the weird things is people are more afraid of dying unusually than of what will actually more likely kill them

Get run over by a speeding or drunk driver, well there's loads of that going on, so let's not introduce tougher alcohol limits or actually enforce limits (speed cameras, boo!)

Get run over by a computer controlled car, war on the machines time! Smash them all up! I shudder at the Daily Mail headline.

PS: I also look forward to the mods, plugins n viruses for the software. "Turbo!!!!!!!400" will remove speed limiters! Go az fast as u want! "2001" will put on a HAL voice and refuse to let you turn off at the junction you want.

cells

Clifford_Pope wrote: »

Could it distinguish a dog running out into the road, and a child?
ie decide to run over the dog, in order to avoid a possible accident, but do an emergency stop for the child?

The first time a robot gets it wrong, and decides to mow down a child, will kill the idea as well, so they had better be good.
Human error can be forgiven.

You are assuming a human can judge what to do if a dog or a kid runs in the road. In either circumstance the human will most likely panic and smash the breaks and hope for the best.

The robo car can do two things very different. First it can apply the breaks some 0.3+ seconds quicker which at 40mph will mean the car stops 6 meters sooner than the human car. Secondly it can predict the kid or dogs movements and react better in the first place.

Plus the big benefits of always being alert and ot falling asleep at the wheel or driving drunk etc so as not to be in a situation of danger so frequently as humans

globalds

I think you are missing the entry point of this tech.

It will be commercial vehicles ,especially L.G.V's that travel long distances.
Imagine a truck that can do the slog ..lets say a driver drops it at the services at Telford ..It then drives itself to the services just outside Edinburgh or a parking area by the channel tunnel for loading.Only to continue to a service station outside Salzburg.
The human delivers it through the last leg .. This gives so much instant payback.trucks plough on for 24 hour a day stints ..drivers can deal with maybe 10 or 15 final deliveries per shift , dropping loads and picking up ..Then at the end of the shift ,they go home.
For a truck that costs £100,000 to buy and a colossal amount to run. Then a £30,000 modification would be paid for in less than a year.
Would you as a car driver find yourself insured off the same road ..sure as eggs is eggs if the only things hitting those vehicles and stopping them doing there job is your human controlled vehicle.
You will be insured for A roads ..but the roads with robots on them will be out of bounds ..The future from there is that more roads become areas your vehicle can't drive on ..15 years from now ..invest in test tracks ..it will be the last place you can drive.

cells

globalds wrote: »

I think you are missing the entry point of this tech.

It will be commercial vehicles ,especially L.G.V's that travel long distances.
Imagine a truck that can do the slog ..lets say a driver drops it at the services at Telford ..It then drives itself to the services just outside Edinburgh or a parking area by the channel tunnel for loading.Only to continue to a service station outside Salzburg.
The human delivers it through the last leg .. This gives so much instant payback.trucks plough on for 24 hour a day stints ..drivers can deal with maybe 10 or 15 final deliveries per shift , dropping loads and picking up ..Then at the end of the shift ,they go home.
For a truck that costs £100,000 to buy and a colossal amount to run. Then a £30,000 modification would be paid for in less than a year.
Would you as a car driver find yourself insured off the same road ..sure as eggs is eggs if the only things hitting those vehicles and stopping them doing there job is your human controlled vehicle.
You will be insured for A roads ..but the roads with robots on them will be out of bounds ..The future from there is that more roads become areas your vehicle can't drive on ..15 years from now ..invest in test tracks ..it will be the last place you can drive.

maybe

or maybe

the manufacturers will sell their products directly to consumers bypassing the need for big retail outlets and a HGVs to feed them.

imagine for instence, samsung release their new galaxy S30 in 2030.
Would it not make sense for samsung to load say 1000 x small vans each with 1,000 new phones in them and have it drive around London delivering 1 million of their phones and just ejecting one carton to each customer that opens the door and goes to the vehicle and enters a pin to collect their phone?

an algo can determine the best route, the robo vans probably wouldnt have to go more than a street or two to find the next customer.

Samsung saves perhaps £20 per phone in not paying a retailer to stock/sell/staff and what is two journeys (samsung factory to retail outlet to home) becomes one journey from samsung factory to home.


a lot of retail goods see a markup of 10-20x from factory to the shop checkout. there will be a big inventive to bypass the retail stage. The internet already does this to a degree avoiding some of the retail costs but it still has effectively the wholesale cost of warehouses and staff and deliveries. the robo car will do a lot more than the internet in lowering the difference between factory and retail outlet prices.