Only going one way now!

pbouk

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Every day from now until the peak of the next cycle in base rates.

Which will be around 3.5%, and is still at least a decade away.

So you think 3.5% is at least a decade away!:rotfl:

If you think I am gonna be on here in 10 years time!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

pbouk wrote: »

You are of the few, not of the many though.

Several million people are now on relatively low margin lifetime trackers/SVR's.

Very few by comparison remain stuck on high SVR's, and as prices rise more and more of them can remortgage to lower rates.

chucknorris

pbouk wrote: »

You are of the few, not of the many though.

There are more than us than you think. But I am only trying to manage my finances, not yours (thank god).

pbouk

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Average mortgage rates will go back to around 5%, but won't go much north of that as base rates climb, because bank margin above base will shrink.

It's simply not enough to cause falling prices, given the shortage of houses, economic recovery, rising wages, falling unemployment, etc.....

None of which are conditions known for being associated with falling house prices.

If the banks were not saved a few years ago, shortage of houses etc would not have stopped prices from crashing. The banks will not ,and cannot, be saved if we have another banking crisis (although unlikely) in the next decade or so.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

pbouk wrote: »

So you think 3.5% is at least a decade away!

Somewhere around that, yes.

And if you don't, you are going to be somewhat surprised over the next few years....:D

Mr Carney also said: "The level of interest rates necessary to sustain low unemployment and price stability will be somewhat lower than before the crisis.

"In the jargon, the equilibrium real interest rate, which has been negative for much of the period since the crisis, will eventually turn positive again, but it is likely to remain well below historical norms."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25877395

ruggedtoast

I will eat my hat if rates rise before the election. Or after the election.

pbouk

chucknorris wrote: »

There are more than us than you think. But I am only trying to manage my finances, not yours (thank god).

My finances are fine. Mortgage free:beer:

chucknorris

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Somewhere around that, yes.

And if you don't, you are going to be somewhat surprised over the next few years....:D


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25877395

I've more or less got out of cash now, I'd much rather take a chance on the ftse than lose for sure on net savings rates below the rate of inflation.


OP where is your wealth saved or invested?

pbouk

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I will eat my hat if rates rise before the election. Or after the election.

So will I! The article was talking about mortgage rates, not base rates.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Interest rates will not rise until people begin to share in the economic recovery, the governor of the Bank of England has said.

Mark Carney said he wants to give "comfort" to homeowners struggling to cope with the cost of living.

He said interest rates will not rise until jobs, wages and household spending reach "sustainable" levels of growth.

He told the Andrew Marr show: "What we're trying to do to the maximum extent possible is to provide the comfort that we are not going to adjust interest rates until jobs, incomes and spending [recover]."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10642046/Mark-Carney-offers-comfort-to-struggling-homeowners.html

So if, as now looks likely, rates don't rise until wages are rising in real terms, what does that do to the last great hope of the bears for a crash?