We’d like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum.
This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are – or become – political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.
Debate House Prices
In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
When will the correction come to house prices?
Comments
-
you mean when the government stops housing being built using the planning laws?
you mean when government stop imposing levies and extra costs on new builds?
you mean when government stop interferring with bank capital ratios?
I doubt I'll live long enough to see the day when the government allows the market to work on its own.
more the Help to Buy, the low interest rates (I don't for one minute think the BofE is acting independently here) etc...0 -
Unless something unforeseen or unplanned happens (eg Crimean War) the correction in house prices should start after the next election, independent of who actually is going to win.0
-
Overall, I would still urge you to look at real estate price over the past 10, 20, 50, 100 years... it's never gone down in the long term... corrections are possible in the short term (very short term for London), but the trend only goes one direction.
Until the end of last the lifetime trend of bitcoin was up. Historical trends are useful but they aren't a crystal ball.
House prices have consistently beat inflation for at least 40 years, and I think they will continue to do so for probably 15+ years yet, but there's a fundamental flaw with just assuming it will carry on forever: There's a limit to what people can afford.
If you apply that ridiculous long term trends graph* that people have been using to show where house prices should be then a house should cost in real terms today 3x as much as it did in the last 70s. If the trend continues they'll be worth 3x as much in 2050 as they are now. They'll be worth 9x current prices in real terms in 2090.
Given that wage inflation has been subdued, and well below house prices, for 30 years how exactly do we expect people to be able to buy at that price? When a £150,000 house today would cost £1,350,000 in today's money. The only way that is possible is if other long term trends change, so why assume that housing is the one thing that won't.
* Even if you don't they're worth more than double and increasing by 10% pa so they'll actually be 3x 70s prices in real terms within 2 years.Having a signature removed for mentioning the removal of a previous signature. Blackwhite bellyfeel double plus good...0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »The groups set up to oppose building knew every trick in the book. Even introducing owls to fields to stop permission being granted.
You're right, although keep in mind that it is government intervention that means someone putting Owls in a field can stop houses being built.Having a signature removed for mentioning the removal of a previous signature. Blackwhite bellyfeel double plus good...0 -
Happiness is buying an item and then not checking its price after a month to discover it was reduced further.0
-
Ha does anyone really believe green shoots of recovery this time around? I didnt think so.
You need to put into perspective of where the UK was in 2007/08.
So improvement with the right financial disciplines seems right.
Is there a quick fix. No, correction will take years. With a few deep pot holes along the way.0 -
House prices have consistently beat inflation for at least 40 years, and I think they will continue to do so for probably 15+ years yet, but there's a fundamental flaw with just assuming it will carry on forever:
Down to UK economic policy of running an ever increasing budget deficit.
Times have changed. Reverse gear is engaged.0 -
You're right, although keep in mind that it is government intervention that means someone putting Owls in a field can stop houses being built.
I think it was Harry Potter."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
you mean when government stop interferring with bank capital ratios?
Kind of glad the adults have got involved didn't end too well when the children were playing last time."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »Kind of glad the adults have got involved didn't end too well when the children were playing last time.
which adults are you thinking about?0
This discussion has been closed.
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 352.1K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.6K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 454.3K Spending & Discounts
- 245.2K Work, Benefits & Business
- 600.9K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 177.5K Life & Family
- 259K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.7K Read-Only Boards