When will the correction come to house prices?

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

if the land registry is covering april and i called april as the peak i would say its looking quite good

Are you sure about that? Have you actually checked? It seems to me that while April has been a local peak it isn't "the" peak:



That also completely overlooks any seasonal behaviour in the housing market that one might want to adjust for.

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

my understanding of a peak is that it is the highest point.

Well yes... stating the obvious.

Rather the question was, going by the previous claim that April was the peak, is next months Land Registry going to now show a notable fall or is that going to be a peak again? For a peak to form surely there must be a sustained period of falls following it?

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

Are you sure about that? Have you actually checked? It seems to me that while April has been a local peak it isn't "the" peak:



That also completely overlooks any seasonal behaviour in the housing market that one might want to adjust for.

not sure what your point is but i'm talking about london.

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

Well yes... stating the obvious.

Rather the question was, going by the previous claim that April was the peak, is next months Land Registry going to now show a notable fall or is that going to be a peak again? For a peak to form surely there must be a sustained period of falls following it?

like i've said before i would expect to see a downward trend established by the last quarter.
i have no idea what kind of time lag is involved in LR figures. i'm guessing between 3-5 months.

Bubble_and_Squeak

by the way, i love the way you guys are constantly patting each other on the back via the thanks button. its really sweet. atta boy! you really showed that bear what for!

MFW_ASAP

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

by the way, i love the way you guys are constantly patting each other on the back via the thanks button. its really sweet. atta boy! you really showed that bear what for!

I thanked you for your useful post.

I have never seen the point of having the 'thanks' button, but some people seem very attached to it, to the point where the have 'thank users' that they use soley to Thank a post they have just made. Incredibly sad, but there you go.

I did suggest on the site feedback board that MSE removed the button but I was accosted by people (who had a lot of thank results) who seemed put out by my suggestion. People are strange and internet people are stranger.

Bubble_and_Squeak

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

I thanked you for your useful post.

I have never seen the point of having the 'thanks' button, but some people seem very attached to it, to the point where the have 'thank users' that they use soley to Thank a post they have just made. Incredibly sad, but there you go.

I did suggest on the site feedback board that MSE removed the button but I was accosted by people (who had a lot of thank results) who seemed put out by my suggestion. People are strange and internet people are stranger.

thanks for the thanks!

System

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

it will be interesting to see the reaction when the LR finally reacts to events on the ground at the end of the year
every month it'll be "oh but they're higher than such and such date"
and it will keep going back until the market bottoms out and it'll be "oh if you had bought on such and such date you would be better off"

All that matters is the price when you could have bought and the price you bought at.

Watching prices rise 40% and buying after a 10% drop isn't making you a winner.

No doubt you'll be declaring yourself some kind of victor after paying 6 figures more for a house than you could have done but it won't wash with us money saving experts.

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

not sure what your point is but i'm talking about london.

I guess my point is still "Are you sure about that? Have you actually checked?". Because if you look at London sale prices for those months, or even just inner London there is still no "the" peak in April:



The fact is that houses have sold for more than they did in April of this year since April. That is true across the UK and specifically in London. If you called the peak in April then it seems you called it wrong ...

Bubble_and_Squeak

Joeskeppi wrote: »

All that matters is the price when you could have bought and the price you bought at.

Watching prices rise 40% and buying after a 10% drop isn't making you a winner.

No doubt you'll be declaring yourself some kind of victor after paying 6 figures more for a house than you could have done but it won't wash with us money saving experts.

i gave up trying to buy in april
since then supply has increased, asking prices have fallen and less houses are achieving the asking price.
where did i go wrong?