When will the correction come to house prices?

AndyGuil

mobfant wrote: »

There've been far fewer prospective buyers in the last 1-2 months compared to the start of the year where I'm looking Lambeth, and where friends have been looking. This is backed up by the RICS report last week.

But again, where does the money come from to keep prices going up? If no-one can join the bottom rung of the ladder, then the ladder is stuck

That will be the mortgage review delay causing this.

New buyer registrations are up 29% YoY and 34% in London. http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/view.asp?ID=13823

Graham_Devon

antrobus wrote: »

Credit is not being ramped up, for the simple reason that is not going up.

You don't need total lending going up to be ramping up credit availability.

Take for instance the scrappage scheme. The government were ramping up car sales. But they still slowed from the year before. There are other factors at play.

Without HTB, the figures would be lower. Without the scrappage scheme, car sales would have been even lower than they were.

Bantex_2

mobfant wrote: »

There've been far fewer prospective buyers in the last 1-2 months compared to the start of the year where I'm looking Lambeth, and where friends have been looking. This is backed up by the RICS report last week.

But again, where does the money come from to keep prices going up? If no-one can join the bottom rung of the ladder, then the ladder is stuck

Don't need them anymore. BTL and foreign investors in London.

mobfant

AndyGuil wrote: »

That will be the mortgage review delay causing this.

New buyer registrations are up 29% YoY and 34% in London. http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/view.asp?ID=13823

Yes, but that's YoY rather than compared to the last month or two.

"The number of first-time buyer applications has also decreased, by 5% on the month "

" there are 13.5 buyers chasing every new instruction, down marginally from 13.7/1 last month "

mobfant

Bantex wrote: »

Don't need them anymore. BTL and foreign investors in London.

Those two groups are largely sentiment-based, and the former in particular can fall away as quickly as they've increased.

AndyGuil

mobfant wrote: »

Yes, but that's YoY rather than compared to the last month or two.

"The number of first-time buyer applications has also decreased, by 5% on the month "

" there are 13.5 buyers chasing every new instruction, down marginally from 13.7/1 last month "

As pointed out in the article MMR is having an effect.

mobfant

AndyGuil wrote: »

As pointed out in the article MMR is having an effect.

Yes it is. But over and above that, there are fewer people applying for mortgages and looking at houses, in this month compared to last month.

AndyGuil

mobfant wrote: »

Yes it is. But over and above that, there are fewer people applying for mortgages and looking at houses, in this month compared to last month.

I am curious as to how any conclusion can be drawn when this has happened for at least the last few years around this time of the year in London. Never mind it is just one data set compared to a whole years worth available.

mobfant

AndyGuil wrote: »

I am curious as to how any conclusion can be drawn when this has happened for at least the last few years around this time of the year in London. Never mind it is just one data set compared to a whole years worth available.

Have you got graphs for the data in that article for the past few years? I couldn't see what source the data came from.

Combine this information of month on month falls with the rightmove asking price reductions (not linked to MMR) and RICS data last week, and there are signs the market is calming, and it is about more than MMR.

But you're right in that it'll take more than a month or two of data to conclude that there is a substantive change and that this is more than a blip.

IveSeenTheLight

The-Joker wrote: »

When will the correction come to house prices?

I know some will say there will never be a next correction, but for the more sensible on when do you think it will be?

That will depend as always on the supply and demand.

This morning I received notification from a tenants in my flat that they wanted to terminate the lease.

At the same time, they have a colleague who is keen to take over the tenancy (The property three times previously has been re-let without advertising)

Checking the local register, there are only 7 similar properties listed in a 3 mile area, 4 of which are under offer.

The 7 properties listed are on for 13% (average) more than I currently rent out the property for.

With the high demand and low supply, I think I can easily market for an additional 6.25% rent.

Will this area crash?, there's always the possibility, but given the market forces and how the area withstood the previous correction, this is showing to be an extremely low risk at this time.