Nationwide Feb:+9.4% YoY

cells

floridaman wrote: »

Hamish - what is your advice to anyone renting? Prices can't go much higher can they?

What we know to be likely over the next 10 years

The population will increase by about 5 million

The housing stock will increase by about 1.5 million people

The UK occupancy rate will therefore have to go up. This is not normal

By comparison. France will see about 4 million more people and build 4 million more homes the result will be that her occupancy rate falls whih is very normal


The UK housing shortage vs France will go from about 2.25m today to about 5.5m homes in a decade.

cells

grizzly1911 wrote: »

I don't know the answer but becausrench as heavily dependent on a HPI to support their heavily finance based economy and in turn the state.

Are their debt levels per capita, both public and private, at the same levels?

Do they have as ma many German cars on their roads?

Make some more sense if you want a respnse.

the uk is simply stuck in the past. The councils have not responded to the increasing rate of population growth. The 1990s and 2000s saw almost the same number of homes build 1.9m vs 1.95m yet population growth was much higher in the 2000s

France also sees HPI but it is from a much lower more affordable base. The difference is that their HPI is a result of material and labour inflation whereas UK HPI is largely a factor of Building land price inflation. Ie too few building permits are given out cs demand

N1AK

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Re-ally!?

Darn it....you might detect it again...

Would seem more persuasive if you hadn't posted a serious response to it already. Some chumps get off on sharing contentious views or trolling. If in doubt then ignore it, you can't beat someone who's just trying to cause controversy by feeding it.

N1AK

cells wrote: »

I hate people like you. The defeatist nothing is possible breed.

france in 2011 built 421k new homes the UK...closer to 130k
When did the french become the nation that does and the UK the nation that withers

They've got plenty of their own problems. One they don't have is anything near our level of population density, and the nimbyism that comes with it.

Nothing he said was overly defeatist, sadly it is naive to think we're going to solve this issue in the next few issues, but feel free to hate him if you want to

cells

N1AK wrote: »

They've got plenty of their own problems. Oabout half of thatey don't have is anything near our level of population density, and the nimbyism that comes with it.

Nothing he said was overly defeatist, sadly it is naive to think we're going to solve this issue in the next few issues, but feel free to hate him if you want to

Population density has nowt to do with it else Scotland would be building at a rate per capita more than france not at a rate near the uk

Also Germany is fairly Dense yet has more homes per capita than France which in turn has more homes per capita than the uk.

N1AK

cells wrote: »

Population density has nowt to do with it else Scotland would be building at a rate per capita more than france not at a rate near the uk

Population density has plenty to do with it. It's not like anyone is claiming that there's a direct correlation between house building and density. Maybe you need to see some grey and no just black and white

cells

N1AK wrote: »

Population density has plenty to do with it. It's not like anyone is claiming that there's a direct correlation between house building and density. Maybe you need to see some grey and no just black and white

Stupid post of the day

as you suggest there is no correlation to housing stock(occupancy level) and density of population.

Germany is one of the most dense yet has one of the lowest occupancy rates. Scotland one of the least dense yet has one of the highest occupancy rates.

TickersPlaysPop

Why are we so sure it is the local councils holding back house/flat building?

Lots of building companies based their business on borrowing money to build.... That money has almost completely dried up since 2008... Maybe it's only just started to flow again, but a trickle compared to what it was.

How can companies build if they have no cash?

cells

TickersPlaysPop wrote: »

Why are we so sure it is the local councils holding back house/flat building?

Lots of building companies based their business on borrowing money to build.... That money has almost completely dried up since 2008... Maybe it's only just started to flow again, but a trickle compared to what it was.

How can companies build if they have no cash?

You can apply the same question to France. The credit crunch isn't just for the uk. So how can france build 400k a year while the UK builds 130k a year?

Wages are about the same
materials cost about the same
finance costs about thehsame

There are only two material differences. Building land is a lot more expensive in the UK and in the UK the government burdens new homes with a s106/CIL/social housing/ additional costs.

What tje government should do if it wants to see build rates go towards french levels is to abolish the socoal housong/CIL/s106 extra burden and also give out a lot more stamps to reduce building land costs (2011 france built 421k new homes while the uk was around 130k)

again by comparison France gives out around 600k building permits a year of which around 400k are built. The uk should aim for the same. Grant 600k planning permission permits a year and expect to see 400k a year built.

thequant

cells wrote: »

You can apply the same question to France. The credit crunch isn't just for the uk. So how can france build 400k a year while the UK builds 130k a year?

Wages are about the same
materials cost about the same
finance costs about thehsame

There are only two material differences. Building land is a lot more expensive in the UK and in the UK the government burdens new homes with a s106/CIL/social housing/ additional costs.

What tje government should do if it wants to see build rates go towards french levels is to abolish the socoal housong/CIL/s106 extra burden and also give out a lot more stamps to reduce building land costs (2011 france built 421k new homes while the uk was around 130k)

again by comparison France gives out around 600k building permits a year of which around 400k are built. The uk should aim for the same. Grant 600k planning permission permits a year and expect to see 400k a year built.

If we increase supply, we will decrease house prices. While homeowners still form the majority in this country we will not see turkeys voting for Christmas anytime soon.