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Oil & Gas : leave it in the ground?
Comments
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An Internet fact?
Uk manufacturing workforce has certainly contracted but value added? Probably not
eg I used to work at a steel plant whwre production rose from 1 million tonnes in the 80s to 3.5 million today. Production is up 350%....
However the workforce went from 30,000 to 2,500 due to automation. So an outsider would probably say the industry was decimated and destroyed when the truth is production is much higher.
The same applies to the coal pits.
automation meant that the 200k coal miners in 1980 would have become 20k in 2010 if production was maintained at the same 1980 level. Those coal miners would have lost their jobs to the machines even if dear Arthur had dislodged maggie and became PM himself. ...
I'm surprised you didn't produce the figures for the value of UK manufacturing production and exports over the 80s to prove your point; I believe the details can be acquired from the internet.0 -
global coal prices have already crashed due to American coal exports growing very rapidly.
The idea that existing suppliers will cut back to support prices is a good proven reality but it only holds if the existing suppliers can cut back enough.
This was not the case in America. Shale gas production took over about 20% of existing fields production. Ie the old dogs cut back production to try and save prices from crashing. They crashed nonetheless. If the old dogs cut production further they coild have ended up cutting their fields prpductions by 50% or even more.
ie shale in america was sooooo plentiful the cut production to maintain prices idea did not work
imo the same will in time happen worldwide. Its unlikely that America is the only place in the world with shale gas and oil. Just like many nations have conventional oil gas and coal aites so will many nations have shale oil and gas
Whats more is that the uk may have one of the best in the world. Uk shale is about 20x thicker than most American shale. Thay could mean much lower costs because one site could fracture a lot more volume of rock.
Only time will tell. What is virtually guaranteed is that the world is full of shale formations equal to or better than the yanks they just need to be found and developed
Coal is so 1930s in the developed world. Luckily we are sitting on a nice stock pile. Something tells me it will come in useful at some point.
The US has a somewhat different affinity to fuel usuage.
It suits the US to force down fuel prices within its own borders.
Did the world price of crude tumble when that happened?
Oil production around the world has been controlled to maintain prices. Commodity traders like to have their slice of the action too.
The price of fuel into our hands is unlikely to fall nominally or in real terms.
I first purchased petrol in the late 70s for around £0.80p/gallon. Inflation linked that would be around £4.00 now.
Something tells me that energy prices haven't fallen behind in that time either.
Is demand for fuel falling?"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
aren't all these things positives?
isn't it good that we sell into the wholesale markets for the best price?
although I doubt our production would be sufficient to change the world price, wouldn't it be good to throttle back supply rather than sell a scarce finite resource too cheaply?
is it bad that the taxpayers gets a cut of UK gas?
My post was in response to the point about Scottish fuel being worthless "tomorrow".
I am not sure whether the points are good or bad, it is just what will happen.
If we are exporting the fuel then the taxpayers getting a cut will be good. If we are consuming it internally we the taxpayer will be paying the tax so not so good."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
Leave it there until he rest of the word runs out, then it will be worth something.
As far a electricity production goes, nuclear is the way forward.Have my first business premises (+4th business) 01/11/2017
Quit day job to run 3 businesses 08/02/2017
Started third business 25/06/2016
Son born 13/09/2015
Started a second business 03/08/2013
Officially the owner of my own business since 13/01/20120 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »
If we are exporting the fuel then the taxpayers getting a cut will be good. If we are consuming it internally we the taxpayer will be paying the tax so not so good.
completely mad0 -
completely mad
Not sure how tax payers paying tax helps the tax payer perhaps you would care to explain."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »Not sure how tax payers paying tax helps the tax payer perhaps you would care to explain.
if the gas was used in the uk rather than exported it would because it was cheaper than importing it.
win win for the UK0 -
if the gas was used in the uk rather than exported it would because it was cheaper than importing it.
win win for the UK
The gas goes into the interconnect grid. Once it is in that grid it is an international commodity. Users here buy it back from that source ( alledgedley). That whimsical wholesale price that the energy companies have no control of."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »Coal is so 1930s in the developed world. Luckily we are sitting on a nice stock pile. Something tells me it will come in useful at some point.
The US has a somewhat different affinity to fuel usuage.
It suits the US to force down fuel prices within its own borders.
Did the world price of crude tumble when that happened?
Oil production around the world has been controlled to maintain prices. Commodity traders like to have their slice of the action too.
The price of fuel into our hands is unlikely to fall nominally or in real terms.
I first purchased petrol in the late 70s for around £0.80p/gallon. Inflation linked that would be around £4.00 now.
Something tells me that energy prices haven't fallen behind in that time either.
Is demand for fuel falling?
The global demand for energy is rising rapidly
without shale prices would have been higher worldwide. In time I think shale gas and oil could provide 10% of the world's primary energy which would be a huge achievement.
You are correct in that prices are controlled to a large degree. Not just oil but gas and coal too. Currently its not hard to do because demand is rising rapidly (near 50% a decade)
Global suppliers are unlikely to lose the upper hand to global consumers anytime soon. However local suppliers can be hard hit if export capacity is constrained which is what has happened in America0 -
I'm surprised you didn't produce the figures for the value of UK manufacturing production and exports over the 80s to prove yothan two hundred years ago.oint; I believe the details can be acquired from the internet.
I am not sure it would help
for instance two hundred years ago food production may have been as high as 50% of GDP. Now it is less than 1% of GDP. Yet we produce a lot more food than two hundred years ago.
manufacturing has gone and will continue to go the way of food production. Both persons employed and as a percentage of GDP manufacturing will fall (not just in the uk but worldwide) as food production did. The reason is simply productivity and automation. And this is a food thing for us all0
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